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Lockdown?
There is a lot of speculation about if and when lockdown will be eased. Having read this, I for one would be happy to wait a while longer.
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It is unlikely that a relaxation in lockdown just a few days ago would instantly result in a rise in cases. There is an incubation period of 7-14 days between catching Covid-19 and showing the symptoms, so any rise now is co-incidence, not due to the ending of lockdown.
The UK easing of lockdown will be a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain, and will be partial and gradual.
The UK easing of lockdown will be a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain, and will be partial and gradual.
Living in the North West where we seem to be behind London by 2 weeks, I would think another 2 or 3 weeks of the same lockdown rules should apply. As Mayor Of Manchester Andy Burnham said on the TV morning shows today. Nationally, we were a little late going into lockdown. Lets not leave it too early !!
nicelander
I tend to agree. We are 2-3 weeks behind Italy and Spain, so too Early to ease lockdown yet.
But, on saying that, easing lockdown is supposed to be possible when our R number is below 1.0. The Government announced we had achieved that 5 weeks ago, but no easing. It is almost as though they are admitting their published data is flaw, and even they don’t belueve their own figures when it comes to making crucial decisions.
I tend to agree. We are 2-3 weeks behind Italy and Spain, so too Early to ease lockdown yet.
But, on saying that, easing lockdown is supposed to be possible when our R number is below 1.0. The Government announced we had achieved that 5 weeks ago, but no easing. It is almost as though they are admitting their published data is flaw, and even they don’t belueve their own figures when it comes to making crucial decisions.
Statistics can be bandied around all night, there’ll be statistics to rebut those statistics and further statistics to rebut the rebutted statistics ad infinitum.
But....
The simple fact of the matter is the economy is now important. It just is.
Whether the easing of the lockdown is gradual (which is likely) or it simply ceases, it has to happen, and it has to happen now.
But....
The simple fact of the matter is the economy is now important. It just is.
Whether the easing of the lockdown is gradual (which is likely) or it simply ceases, it has to happen, and it has to happen now.
I've noticed that a lot of people (eg Nicola, Keir) who were complaining a few weeks ago that Boris wasn't announcing the detail of an exit strategy for relaxing lockdown are now saying it's too soon for him to be announcing changes and that by saying there is to be an announcement this will cause people to relax too much over the bank holiday in anticipation of a forthcoming easing
//But, on saying that, easing lockdown is supposed to be possible when our R number is below 1.0. The Government announced we had achieved that 5 weeks ago,...//
I'll ask again (but don't expect an answer): how do they know?
Nobody knows how many people have it or have had it. How do they know how many people each of them has passed it on to?
All that will be announced on Monday is that instead of being allowed one lot of exercise per day you will be allowed as much as you like. (That means I'll have more furloughed runners to avoid). And you may be allowed to sunbathe in the park or on the beach. (Ideal, as the temperature is forecast to drop to single figures on Monday).
I'm with Deskdiary. The lockdown must be ended or the cure will rapidly become worse than the disease. The country must learn to live with this disease rather than trying to protect everybody from it. Keeping everybody locked up simply will not do. Hopefully now that the government's forecaster extraordinaire has been dismissed with his trousers round his ankles somebody more competent may step in to advise the government more realistically.
I'll ask again (but don't expect an answer): how do they know?
Nobody knows how many people have it or have had it. How do they know how many people each of them has passed it on to?
All that will be announced on Monday is that instead of being allowed one lot of exercise per day you will be allowed as much as you like. (That means I'll have more furloughed runners to avoid). And you may be allowed to sunbathe in the park or on the beach. (Ideal, as the temperature is forecast to drop to single figures on Monday).
I'm with Deskdiary. The lockdown must be ended or the cure will rapidly become worse than the disease. The country must learn to live with this disease rather than trying to protect everybody from it. Keeping everybody locked up simply will not do. Hopefully now that the government's forecaster extraordinaire has been dismissed with his trousers round his ankles somebody more competent may step in to advise the government more realistically.
There are 'lies, dammed lies and statistics'. This has been proved true so often. I think that schools should go back as soon as poss., to enable people to go back to work. The economy does matter - hugely - because without a healthy economy all social cervices and cushions will cease to be. Yew, take simple precautions, hand-washing etc., but this is something we are just going to have to learn to live with. The lockdown has bought the NHS time to organise. It coped and will cope. Time to get back to normal - albeit cautiously.
I've copied this for NewJudge as it gives a summary of how R0 is being calculated (estimated). It was written last week and I think more use is being made of the sampling exercise.
R0- How do we measure it?
There are lots of different ways of calculating R. Scientists have been looking at the genome of the virus to see how it changes as it infects new people. They can also look to death and hospitalisation figures to get a sense of how many people have contracted the disease. The problem is that most of these methods involve looking into the past to some degree. People who unfortunately die from coronavirus will have been infected weeks before, so using that data to calculate R can only tell you how widely the disease was infecting people several weeks ago.
To get a more up-to-date sense of the coronavirus R number, the UK is starting to test random samples of the population to see how many of them have the disease. This test, which will be carried out monthly, will involve at least 25,000 people who will be tested to see if they’re currently ill with the virus. This should help the government track the changes in R over time and see if the infection rate is rising or falling.
What is R right now?
At the April 30 press conference, the UK’s chief scientific officer Patrick Vallence said that the UK’s R0 was between 0.6 and 0.9 while the figure in London was between 0.5 and 0.7. It’s worth noting that the precise R will vary from location to location, but these numbers suggest that the enforced lockdown is having the desired effect of forcing the transmission of the virus down.
What isn’t clear, however, is how the R will change if and when the government chooses to relax its social distancing measures and it’s this change that advisors will be keeping a very close eye on to see if the UK is keeping a second peak at bay. It’s worth noting that the R won’t be the only number worth keeping an eye on. Also critical is that the UK doesn’t exceed its critical care bed capacity, and that the NHS has enough spare capacity to resume normal treatments as this too will have a big impact on the overall mortality of the coronavirus pandemic.
R0- How do we measure it?
There are lots of different ways of calculating R. Scientists have been looking at the genome of the virus to see how it changes as it infects new people. They can also look to death and hospitalisation figures to get a sense of how many people have contracted the disease. The problem is that most of these methods involve looking into the past to some degree. People who unfortunately die from coronavirus will have been infected weeks before, so using that data to calculate R can only tell you how widely the disease was infecting people several weeks ago.
To get a more up-to-date sense of the coronavirus R number, the UK is starting to test random samples of the population to see how many of them have the disease. This test, which will be carried out monthly, will involve at least 25,000 people who will be tested to see if they’re currently ill with the virus. This should help the government track the changes in R over time and see if the infection rate is rising or falling.
What is R right now?
At the April 30 press conference, the UK’s chief scientific officer Patrick Vallence said that the UK’s R0 was between 0.6 and 0.9 while the figure in London was between 0.5 and 0.7. It’s worth noting that the precise R will vary from location to location, but these numbers suggest that the enforced lockdown is having the desired effect of forcing the transmission of the virus down.
What isn’t clear, however, is how the R will change if and when the government chooses to relax its social distancing measures and it’s this change that advisors will be keeping a very close eye on to see if the UK is keeping a second peak at bay. It’s worth noting that the R won’t be the only number worth keeping an eye on. Also critical is that the UK doesn’t exceed its critical care bed capacity, and that the NHS has enough spare capacity to resume normal treatments as this too will have a big impact on the overall mortality of the coronavirus pandemic.
>I think that schools should go back as soon as poss., to enable people to go back to work.
It won't happen fully until September at the earliest as many schools would need to be redesigned with one way systems, new classroom layouts, new arrangements, new timetables. It will start earlier in early June for some but will have to be done in stages and will probably start with a few years from primary school, and as more years are added they may only be going on certain days of the week. Schools tend to have hours of something like 8.45-3.15 so reopening will really only help those parents who work part of the day or can get childcare help from friends/family. With secondary schools my guess is very limited opening will happen in mid/late June but schools can only operate at maybe 40% *so will focus on certain years) and buses may not be available.
It won't happen fully until September at the earliest as many schools would need to be redesigned with one way systems, new classroom layouts, new arrangements, new timetables. It will start earlier in early June for some but will have to be done in stages and will probably start with a few years from primary school, and as more years are added they may only be going on certain days of the week. Schools tend to have hours of something like 8.45-3.15 so reopening will really only help those parents who work part of the day or can get childcare help from friends/family. With secondary schools my guess is very limited opening will happen in mid/late June but schools can only operate at maybe 40% *so will focus on certain years) and buses may not be available.
// The simple fact of the matter is the economy is now important. It just is.//
there is quite a lot of " epidemic what epidemic ( thx NJ!) ? there was never any need to lock down"
and...
Bolsonaro " covid - who gives a damn?" - he is presidente of Brazil
and
" we gardda get back to work or else I wont be the richest man in the world!" Trump
and people who want to get back to work say
" yeah - back to work ! screw 'em"
I suppose it is different if you are old (or young n fat like Bonka Boris) and are burying a few relatives - oh so what they were gonna die anyway ( thx NJ ! )
yeah geddem back to work - the govt have my very large pension to pay ( whilst I still live that is!)
there is quite a lot of " epidemic what epidemic ( thx NJ!) ? there was never any need to lock down"
and...
Bolsonaro " covid - who gives a damn?" - he is presidente of Brazil
and
" we gardda get back to work or else I wont be the richest man in the world!" Trump
and people who want to get back to work say
" yeah - back to work ! screw 'em"
I suppose it is different if you are old (or young n fat like Bonka Boris) and are burying a few relatives - oh so what they were gonna die anyway ( thx NJ ! )
yeah geddem back to work - the govt have my very large pension to pay ( whilst I still live that is!)
// >I think that schools should go back as soon as poss., to enable people to go back to work.//
one country has let them back and found the Ro to have risen
does anyone know who or which?
which wd imply that schoolkiddies ( the little darlings) really are grannie killers
very wary of - "oh and they did this and found that"
after Bonker Neil ( Ferge that is!) was meant to predicted that Sweden would be empty within three weeks ! thxNJ !
and also I have to say I am very persuaded by NJ's oft quoted argument - "I dont understand a word of this so just lettem DDDDIIIIEEEE!"
one country has let them back and found the Ro to have risen
does anyone know who or which?
which wd imply that schoolkiddies ( the little darlings) really are grannie killers
very wary of - "oh and they did this and found that"
after Bonker Neil ( Ferge that is!) was meant to predicted that Sweden would be empty within three weeks ! thxNJ !
and also I have to say I am very persuaded by NJ's oft quoted argument - "I dont understand a word of this so just lettem DDDDIIIIEEEE!"
// starting to test random samples of the population to see how many of them have the disease. //
was 10% if you had The Triad - I think that must be any of the triad
and as the criteria was relaxed the rate went down to 8%
which is NOT consistent with there is a lot of it out there and we dont know - correct to "there doesnt seem to be a lot out there and it is not more than 10%"
or as NJ wd say - "none of it means anything, so dont bother, and in fact I dont think there is any covid out there too - just old people who were gonna die anyway"
was 10% if you had The Triad - I think that must be any of the triad
and as the criteria was relaxed the rate went down to 8%
which is NOT consistent with there is a lot of it out there and we dont know - correct to "there doesnt seem to be a lot out there and it is not more than 10%"
or as NJ wd say - "none of it means anything, so dont bother, and in fact I dont think there is any covid out there too - just old people who were gonna die anyway"
// There are lots of different ways of calculating R.//
ALL the beeb fluffy hacks and alot on AB have difficulty in coping the idea of a number is important but they arent sure what it is
never mind that their spouses know what a budget is and have often spent it before the moolah has actually rolled in or even they know how much [ dat different - I know]
The tail off in cases or deaths on a COVID graph MUST be related to Ro because everyone agree that if it is flat - then Ro is one
so the slope of the tail off - either transformed ( log plot) or linear has also to be related to Ro - sharp slope down - Ro v low
but I havent seen anyone say so
Jim says he can model the tail off very accurately
( ie what he modelled a week ago seems to occur a week later)
which is good enough for me!
{usual cries of - what dat den?
Ro - how you spell dat? - and even a cheeky " Ro - well if it naught den why we worry? why doan they use "S" yeah ?- you know the low S dat is always over spain on wevva maps)
ALL the beeb fluffy hacks and alot on AB have difficulty in coping the idea of a number is important but they arent sure what it is
never mind that their spouses know what a budget is and have often spent it before the moolah has actually rolled in or even they know how much [ dat different - I know]
The tail off in cases or deaths on a COVID graph MUST be related to Ro because everyone agree that if it is flat - then Ro is one
so the slope of the tail off - either transformed ( log plot) or linear has also to be related to Ro - sharp slope down - Ro v low
but I havent seen anyone say so
Jim says he can model the tail off very accurately
( ie what he modelled a week ago seems to occur a week later)
which is good enough for me!
{usual cries of - what dat den?
Ro - how you spell dat? - and even a cheeky " Ro - well if it naught den why we worry? why doan they use "S" yeah ?- you know the low S dat is always over spain on wevva maps)
Sorry folks, I'm with Nj on this one. Some answers that I've seen on this topic, not just this thread, are in full support of the govt lockdown. That is the only measure they've taken. Close the country down. Which means all those in favour of it don't care that some companys' will go out of business. Unemployment will see a huge increase. Some people will lose their homes. NJ is correct when he says the cure will become worse than the disease. But it's ok though.
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