So, I'll bite on this. I'm no expert. That is to say, I've dropped to the lower part of the Dunning-Kruger curve. I have not yet climbed to the top, but I have a team in China; I talk to them regularly; I follow some very smart people who are toward the top of the Dunning-Kruger curve.
China's economy is suffering badly from the lock-downs. Let no-one kid you, there are extensive and widespread lock downs. It used to be city-by-city. Now it is apartment-block by block. Someone in your apartment block tests positive; the whole block is locked down.
Apartment blocks in China have only one (or maybe two) entrances, so that the Party can keep tabs on who goes in or out. Those entrances can be locked. With padlocks if necessary.
This happened in Urumqi (Capital of Xinjiang Province). The block was sealed off. A fire broke out. People died. Han Chinese; not the Uyghurs.
Han Chinese people are dying. Businesses across the country are failing because of the lock-downs.
We are seeing public protests against Xi Jinping. It is completely extraordinary. Thousands of Han Chinese chanting “习近平下台.” (Xi Jinping resign) in public; in front of police.
I need to emphasise how extraordinary this is. Everyone in China knows that this kind of chanting risks imprisonment of self and family for years.
Yet they do it.
They do it in a society where conformity is the norm and individualism is frowned on by friends, neighbours and the Party.
If the police & army who are sent in to control the protests switch sides in a major city, then my China-watcher friends say Xi has a real problem.
Do I agree? from my position of poor China-watcher, I disagree. I think Xi is too firmly entrenched, but then what do I know? But I do think something in China is changing. The volume of the protests is much greater than anyone has ever seen.
Is this a second Tianenmen Square? I don't know, but my friends tell me that they expect something similar in the coming weeks. And the result could go either way.
If the tanks roll in and murder protesters, it strengthens Xi. If the army disobeys, then Xi – despite removing rivals at the recent Party congress – is massively weakened.