Surely the meaning is obvious. He/she/it does not have the necessary requirements for the person saying the words, in the same way that water is absolutely needed if a boat is to float.For example, a person might say it about another person or movie who/which they find boring. I doubt very much if there was any recorded origin for the phrase - possibly someone once said it, his/her friends liked it and used it themselves, and it gradually spread.
It sounds as though it might have originated in the advertising industry - like "let's see which way the cookie crumbles" or "lets run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes - but I doubt if there is any particular, recorded origin.
Sorry, Moonhead, if I seemed to be disparaging when I said that the meaning was obvious - this wasn't intentional. On reflection, the meaning is probably clearer in some contexts than others. Also, sorry about the two (now three!) bites at the cherry -