Regarding ancient history and geological timescales, I recently became aware that book-perfect (kosher) Jews quite literally (not just figuratively, as in the Papua New Guinea "one, two, three, many" where who cares how many more than three so that is where numbers in the language stop) assume/accept that the universe is 4000 years old or thereby. Therefore, they refer to geological events others take as perhaps millions of years old as having taken place "some 4000 years ago". No amount of scientific evidence (carbon dating, projections of light-year history to arrive at the BIg Bang, etc.) is accepted. This is why discussing anything on the basis of how likely it is, analysing/dissecting propositions such as the question presented in the OP, is never likely to result in general agreement or even the believers and non-believers finding common ground except to agree to differ. Those who choose to believe will continue to believe (irrespective of the requirement not to scrutinise/question/doubt) and continue to evade the uncomfortable vagueness, contradictions and general absence of an unshakable basis - except their blind faith. Non-believers will continue to fail to understand that religion is in essence a state of mind (i.e. a perception, not based on the tangible things in life) which they do not necessarily have a right to change (i.e. only to protect third parties and/or in extreme cases, such as religious intolerance and violence). Religion is a bit like romantic love, it greatly increases tolerance of discomfort, ignores pretty much everything that is sensible, bends facts and is perhaps best described as a form of derangement. It is sometimes also likened to substance addiction.
Normally, there is no reason for believers and non-believers not to co-exist quite happily. As with political debate, so discussion of religious philosophy (including atheism at one end of the scale) can and should be undertaken, as so often on AB - this is an intellectual exercise that is well worthwhile simply for its own sake because it broadens the mind. But a change in belief is unlikely to be a widespread result - there is no prospect of irrefutable proof either way as to whether there is or is not a god, or a few thousand of them. My particular model of what a god might want of us (if there is one) is that worshippers should get a life and stop worshipping.