Beginning Of The End For Dave ?

[mikey4444]

Its all unravelling, just like it did for Mmmmmmajor Bumble :::

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22585228

How long will it be for a Tory MP, in a nice safe seat, to fall on his or her sword, and let Boris back in ? I can't think how the Tories are going to pull back enough ground before the 2015 Election unless they get rid of Dave. Its a pity as he appears to be basically a nice man.

[mikey4444]

Sorry...forgot to add this :::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/19/update-labour-lead-11/

[anneasquith]

I do think dave is on a sticky wicket.

[jake-the-peg]

You're rather assuming that the noisy Europhobes are
a) actually a majority in the Tory party and
b) that such a party lead by Boris could win

From the revolt against the Queens speech it looks rather as if they are a sizeable minority rather than a majority.

A leader - especially in such difficult times needs time to establish his authority and time is running out there with less than 2 years.

Plus the fact that without DC the coalition fails and that would leave Boris with 2 years running a minority government with a split party at war with itself.

Do you really think in that situation he could win a General election? - I don't and I'll bet he doesn't either

[ToraToraTora]

The leader of the party is irrelevant while we are so schizophrenic over the EU issue. We need to decide what the Tory policy is over the EU.

[mikey4444]

I don't think that the Tories have much chance of winning the next Election whoever is leader, but they stand a better chance under Boris than they do under Dave, although there may not be much in it either way.

The only reason that we have a Tory government at the moment is that the Libs were prepared to hold their noses and make up the numbers. If they hadn't agreed to do so, Brown or Dave may have lumbered on for a few more weeks and then another election would have had to have been called. Its unlikely that the Tories would have got an outright majority, even then. So that is how we got here today.

Its impossible to think that the LibDems would attempt another pact in the weeks leading up to May 2015. Even if they do, their number of MPs will be depleted from the 57 that they got in 2010, thus making any hope of a coalition rather pointless.

( its worth pointing out that the LibDems LOST 5 seats in the 2010 election, a fact that seems to be forgotten by most people )

So it would seem that the only other situation will be for a Labour win, albeit with a small working majority, making for interesting times after 2015. I don't think that Labour have a strong enough team to stay in power for very long, unlike the administration under Blair. Say what you like about Thatcher...she was able to manage her rebels, well, until the early 90's at least. Dave shows no such skill I'm afraid. When he should have been at Westminster, kicking arse, he chose to have tea with Obama instead.

Its Major all over again.

[mikey4444]

Tora Tora Tora....I would love to make my mind up where the Tories stand on Europe but what chance have I or anybody else of doing that when they themselves don't know ? Europe has always reduced the Tories to a complete shambles.

[jomifl]

I think the country faces slightly larger problems than those of the emotionally slighted gay minority.The sooner Dave realises the better, but almost certainly too late.

[mikey4444]

Not quite sure what emotional slighted gay minority means, or how it effects Dave's chances of winning the next Election. The issue of Europe will be the most important factor in the next 24 months, and its this that interrupts his sleep at nights.

[modeller]

He wont win the next election with a working majority but neither will Labour.
mikey Why do you think Boris could do any better. On the question of Europe he is sitting on the fence.

One good thing has come out of having this coalition, it has proved we were right to reject AV . Had we voted for it we would have had permanent
coalitions.

What would have happened had we got a Lab/Lib got in last time. We can get some idea from France.
The socialist president Hollande made all the promises that we hear daily from Ed Balls and a year later they are in an even greater mess.

At least we may not be making much progress but we are pretty stable.

Under Labour as agreed by the two Eds they would incur even greater debts for our children to service.

[FredPuli43]

A mess of his own making. He should say to his UKIP tendency and his anti-gay marriage group, "I think your arguments are wrong. I am the leader of the Party. If you wish me not to be, you have a choice"

[modeller]

I think you are right Fred he needs to do a bit of handbagging. He lacks toughnest and conviction.

[mikey4444]

modeller...It would seem that Boris is more popular amongst the Tory grassroots, than Cameron. I'm not sure that there is much in it but it is my opinion that Boris MAY be able to produce a rabbit out the hat that might, at least soften the Tory defeat of 2015.

I know, lots of mays and mights and uncertainness but there isn't really much time left. Labour have been consistently ahead of the Tories in opinion polls for over 2 years, and they currently stand at 11 points in front. Its not enough for a landslide Labour victory of course, as in 1997 but its just about enough to ensure that the Tories can't win outright. I might be wrong of course, but Cameron is getting to look more and more like Major every day.

[modeller]

We haven't got a single person in this country capable of leadership.

The only chance for any party would be leader is to draw up a simple list of
what he/she wants Europe to be, if we are to be a member.

No Shilly-Shallying, No Ifs, buts or Maybes , it's called leadership.
Their parties and the country would then have a clear choice.

The reason Farage has become so well known is not whether he is right or wrong but that his message is clear cut.

[mikey4444]

modeller...I am not quite sure what you are saying. Surely you are not suggesting that Farage is Prime Minister material ? Surely not !