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Wildwood: "They arrive at these figures by calculating the average, often ignoring the extremes. The present % of 65yo man now, is most likely to be in much better health than the 65yos were 50 years ago, so will be expected to live much longer." Very true, but they have put a number to it - 19 years. Not just "[they] will be expected to live longer." I'm trying to find out how they can arrive at a figure now, when all they can know is that X% of the people born in England 1949 (the prediction is based on 2014 data, I believe) had died by 2014. And how can we interpret the changes that immigration must have made to the calculation?