ChatterBank5 mins ago
Why The Panic.
26 Answers
16,000 positive tests per day but total deaths 45,000.
16,000 for a few months is one big number.
Talking about covid,lol.
16,000 for a few months is one big number.
Talking about covid,lol.
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Sparkly......being Covid positive is not necessarily a death sentence.
Many,particularly the aged need hospitalisation and in many cases expensive and personal intensive care.
The numbers of cases of Covid are rising exponentially doubling in about 7-8 days and if this continues the NHS will collapse.
There is no therapeutic cure for this virus.
So,Sparkly although the numbers seem small,they have a massive epidemiological significance....particularly if you are one of the patients that die.
On a more interesting note,many people suggest that if surgeons wear masks then surely they must be effective against transmission of infection.
I was a surgeon for the best part of 40 years and I cannot give you a valid reason as to why I wore a mask in the operating theatre other than..that's what surgeons wear.
Perhaps may help inthe prevention and spread of Covid but I am yet to be convinced.
Many,particularly the aged need hospitalisation and in many cases expensive and personal intensive care.
The numbers of cases of Covid are rising exponentially doubling in about 7-8 days and if this continues the NHS will collapse.
There is no therapeutic cure for this virus.
So,Sparkly although the numbers seem small,they have a massive epidemiological significance....particularly if you are one of the patients that die.
On a more interesting note,many people suggest that if surgeons wear masks then surely they must be effective against transmission of infection.
I was a surgeon for the best part of 40 years and I cannot give you a valid reason as to why I wore a mask in the operating theatre other than..that's what surgeons wear.
Perhaps may help inthe prevention and spread of Covid but I am yet to be convinced.
Surely after two weeks, the vast majority of the first 16,000 would no longer be positive? So you just can't add up each day's cases, as more are added the earlier ones are taken off the figures. I wish the powers that be would also release this information to put things into perspective. All the figures prove is that on any day a certain number TESTED positive, nothing more, nothing less.
// I was a surgeon for the best part of 40 years and I cannot give you a valid reason as to why I wore a mask in the operating theatre other than..that's what surgeons wear//
luckily surgeons dont listen to themselves let alone anyone else
that is why I can reiterate the cough plate work from pre-1950
( probably pre 1900) that
colonies from cough cough with mask=colonies from cough cough without mask
same for viruses and fungi
luckily surgeons dont listen to themselves let alone anyone else
that is why I can reiterate the cough plate work from pre-1950
( probably pre 1900) that
colonies from cough cough with mask=colonies from cough cough without mask
same for viruses and fungi
bednobs, what I was trying to say was that if you have, for example, 16,000 positive tests for 14 days (the length of time you are meant to isolate for), you won't have 224,000 positive at the end of say day 15, because the vast majority of people who tested positive on day one would no longer be infected. As you add positive test numbers at one end, they should drop off from the previous weeks. Obviously this is not being monitored, since to the best of my knowledge people coming out of 14 days isolation aren't being retested?
//The numbers of cases of Covid are rising exponentially doubling in about 7-8 days and if this continues the NHS will collapse.//
//It is very worrying that hospitals will be swamped thereby unable to cope with other than covid patients.//
There have only been six days recently where the daily new infections figure was double or more the figure from 7 days previously and that was from 3rd to the 9th of October. Coincidentally 3rd October was the day the government announced that there had been a massive data cock up due to inappropriate software being used. The average seven-day increase since then has been 8.8%. The increase in daily cases from 3rd October (12,871) to yesterday (16,171) was 25.6% (in 14 days).
//It is very worrying that hospitals will be swamped thereby unable to cope with other than covid patients.//
There have only been six days recently where the daily new infections figure was double or more the figure from 7 days previously and that was from 3rd to the 9th of October. Coincidentally 3rd October was the day the government announced that there had been a massive data cock up due to inappropriate software being used. The average seven-day increase since then has been 8.8%. The increase in daily cases from 3rd October (12,871) to yesterday (16,171) was 25.6% (in 14 days).
// The increase in daily cases from 3rd October (12,871) to yesterday (16,171) was 25.6% (in 14 days).//
these are disputed but give a doubling time of 56 d.
this is the author NJ who for a long time said covid was relabelled flu isnt it? I think we should be told
and congratulate him if he says "covid I admit cd well turn out to be a major problem at a time I urged people to ignore it"
or not
current doubling time is estimated to be 14d which gives an Ro of around 1.5
these are disputed but give a doubling time of 56 d.
this is the author NJ who for a long time said covid was relabelled flu isnt it? I think we should be told
and congratulate him if he says "covid I admit cd well turn out to be a major problem at a time I urged people to ignore it"
or not
current doubling time is estimated to be 14d which gives an Ro of around 1.5
I'm not in a panic.
In fact, I'd go as far to say I have absolutely zero fear over this virus.
Yes, of course, every death is a tragedy (but whisper it, people die every day!), but as it stands Covid accounts for just 3.2% of deaths in British hospitals. I have no doubt somebody will, yawningly, say I'd feel different if it was somebody close to me. Probably very true, but I'd feel the same about cancer as well, and we haven't cured that yet either.
The death rate is low. It just is. In the week ending April 17, 8,758 recorded deaths mentioned Covid as a possible factor in deaths, whereas for the first week in October, the comparable figure was 321.
(Figures courtesy of one of today's papers).
In fact, I'd go as far to say I have absolutely zero fear over this virus.
Yes, of course, every death is a tragedy (but whisper it, people die every day!), but as it stands Covid accounts for just 3.2% of deaths in British hospitals. I have no doubt somebody will, yawningly, say I'd feel different if it was somebody close to me. Probably very true, but I'd feel the same about cancer as well, and we haven't cured that yet either.
The death rate is low. It just is. In the week ending April 17, 8,758 recorded deaths mentioned Covid as a possible factor in deaths, whereas for the first week in October, the comparable figure was 321.
(Figures courtesy of one of today's papers).
// Obviously this is not being monitored, since to the best of my knowledge people coming out of 14 days isolation aren't being retested?//
nothing wrong with this - you have the pool of those who cd be infected by someone ( susceptible)[E} - another second pool of those showing positive ( infected ){I} and after a time they pass into the third pool ( cured ){R} who cannot be reinfected
E only has leavers - they become infected
I has joiners ( those just infected ) and leavers ( those recovered)
and R has only joiners
and welcome to the EIR computer model which everyone is using.
There is no complicated x equation solution
the curves have to be generated by computer.
and you know you can play around wivda model - lots of new infections - you increase the leavers from pool E - and the number that goes up is the - - - Ro
nothing wrong with your comment at all
nothing wrong with this - you have the pool of those who cd be infected by someone ( susceptible)[E} - another second pool of those showing positive ( infected ){I} and after a time they pass into the third pool ( cured ){R} who cannot be reinfected
E only has leavers - they become infected
I has joiners ( those just infected ) and leavers ( those recovered)
and R has only joiners
and welcome to the EIR computer model which everyone is using.
There is no complicated x equation solution
the curves have to be generated by computer.
and you know you can play around wivda model - lots of new infections - you increase the leavers from pool E - and the number that goes up is the - - - Ro
nothing wrong with your comment at all
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