Fanciful Numbers From The Experts?

[Deskdiary]

Let's take it as read that 100k deaths to date is a lot, that The Daily Moan is a bit sensationalist, and that the name Professor Lockdown is a bit silly.

But...

With the rollout of the vaccine and the continued lockdown, isn't the suggestion of another 130k deaths a little bit fanciful?

This is a genuine question - unlike many on AB, I'm not an expert - far from it - but I do remember the "scenarios" that Whitty and the other one discussed in the Autumn that never even came close to being realised. They were scenarios, pretty bloody bleak scenarios, but nonetheless they shaped policy. Another scenario, of course, was that their numbers and graphs were way wide of the mark, which proved to be the case.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9228617/Boris-faces-Tory-demands-drop-curbs-amid-SAGE-warnings.html

[douglas9401]

People do tend to stick to their guns until the bitter end.

I think that's where we're headed, rather than a shift of thinking from those more certain of their facts than us plebs.

There can be no admission of error from the great and the good.

[woofgang]

Mark Harper, who chairs the Tory MP lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group (CRG)

so not unbiased then?

[bobbinwales]

If anything like most of us they underestimated the number of deaths

[Deskdiary]

Not in the Autumn they didn't Bob.

[bobbinwales]

Can't access the article so dont know the timescales but on the face of it another 130000 deaths seems a very pessimistic forecast for this year and over the top given the vaccinne should have a huge effect by summer. My expectations only another 30000 or so by Spring as deaths are going to remain high throughout Febuary

[bobbinwales]

//Not in the Autumn they didn't Bob.//
Its Bobb, but can you show me anything they said to justify that statement deskdiary ??

[jim360]

The modelling in question takes us into June next year; over that timescale it's not too implausible, perhaps, given that we have had about 50,000 deaths announced in the last two months.

We can also expect something like another 25,000-30,000 deaths just from the tail of this wave* -- I haven't calculated this precisely, just eyeballed it, so take this estimate with a pinch of salt; I'm also hopeful that this is an overestimate, because the death rate is falling faster than I had anticipated. The January lockdown has certainly had a significant effect.



*Up until March 31st.

[bobbinwales]

Thanks jim., The forecast of another 130000 still seems on the high high side but don't seem massivley over the top if its by June 2022. Thats about 300

[tomus42]

I seems alot but I can remember way back at the start when Chris Whitty ( I think it was ) said 20,000 deaths would be a good outcome. He came in for some stick because putting it like that doesn't sound quite right. Now we're at 100k+ though, I can see what he meant.

The scientists are predicting what will be the effect on deaths and advising that to the Govt. They are not the slightest bit interested in the economy, nor should they be. That is not in their remit. It is for the Govt to weigh the conflicting factors and make decisions accordingly.

[bobbinwales]

Not sure what happened as a was still typing...
thats about 300 a day on average from Spring 2021 to June 2022 and probly assumes a big relaxation in restrictions and a big increase in infections particularly in BAME groups who refuse vaccinnations and older /vunerable ones who cant have the vaccinne plus some variants. Hope its far less than that, should be if we'er sensible

[KARL]

I am astonished at the numbers of deaths being discussed - is there really no hope that the UK can do remotely as well in this as other island nations ? Even with months and months of previous example at hand ?

[bobbinwales]

Its clear from behaviour and to attitudes to vaccinnes particularly in BAME communitys and to lockdowns herem and scepticism to political leaders and institutions here that theres a limit to what our goverment and councils and public health bodies can do to keep our figures down to those in other countries given that we allready have high level of infections

[douglas9401]

The old saying 'you've made your bed now lie in it' may have to be written into the social contract if "attitudes to vaccinnes particularly in BAME communitys and to lockdowns" persist.
A rider of 'hell mend them' may have to be added eventually.

[tomus42]

There will be fewer anti-vaxxers this time next year than there are now, for a couple of reasons.

[Peter Pedant]

// no hope that the UK can do remotely as well in this as other island nations ?// by declaring them undead and alive again or something ?

an AB valid solution

I am unsure about the questions of this thread - crud pointyheaded intellectuals vastly under estimated deaths a the beginning - thereby ( hi NJ!) showing that prediction models were deeply deeply flawed
undeterred the same lot, no wiser, no richer, still over-opinionated have wildy overestimated the future number of deaths

just like they did last time - showing they were and always are useless and stupid. The govt shouldnt pay them - they should pay the govt!

have I missed anyting out?

[woofgang]

PP you missed out the conspiracy theory/theories

[Peter Pedant]

oh the pedophile virologists - Porton Down known always as Paedo Down. Baby eaters all of them - after vilely corrupting er something

thank you - and dont forget the immunologist whose eyes are too close together... we dont often see him for obvious reasons

[jno]

scientists warn how many people will die if the government doesn't do something.

The government does something.

Fewer people die.

That doesn't mean the scientists were wrong, it means they were right surely?

[woofgang]

yup, its like the millenium computer thing....

[Sunk]

In March last year the predictions were 100K and people called that scaremongering. But now we have passed that.
If it lasts another year or two, I would not be surprised if another 100K+ occurs.