What Evidence Is There That Post-Brexit Trade Deals Will Be Positive For Britain?

[satprof]

First, I'll nail my colours to the mast. I'm a dyed-in-the wool remainer who cheered when Ted Heath 'saved' the UK economy by joining the EEC in 1973. I haven't lived in the UK since 1987 but still love much about it. All the same, the South-East of England is grossly over-crowded, the NHS is a postcode lottery & 'rip-off Britain' is quite outrageous. My perspective is that of someone whose children & grand-children still live in Britain and for whom I am deeply concerned. I'm sure most people, on both sides of the Brexit divide, are equally concerned.

My question is for those who, as an apparent act of faith, put forward the ability to make worldwide trade deals as a major benefit of Brexit. Is there evidence that this is (or will be) good for the British economy? It seems to me that countries like the US, India, Indonesia, & Vietnam will do this kind of deal because they think that tariff-free (or -reduced) trade with the UK will provide jobs for their (generally fast-growing) populations. At whose expense, I ask? My fear is that it will be at the expense of UK jobs, especially in the unskilled & semi-skilled sectors.

Sure, we will be able to sell them more Scotch, SNP permitting. What we want to be able to sell them is decent volumes of world-beating products similar to those made in Switzerland & Germany, and France & Italy to a lesser extent. Why haven't we been selling those to them already? If other people can make & sell products through tariff barriers, why can't we? Removing tariffs from UK-made products will, of course, make them cheaper, but if UK unemployment increases as a result, would that be desirable?

[woofgang]

when the last referendum was happening, I did my due diligence before I voted. I looked for objective evidenced based information...Actually I found very little hard evidence in either direction for anything....I guess who lives will see.

[Untitled]

I fear you are quite right to be concerned... the reality is that we need trade, and that we have made trading with our nearest neighbours more complicated by leaving. As such any deal we can get in the wider world will be an improvement on our current situation and everybody knows it, and no trade deal will come without costs... the TPP is probably our best bet but they will want us to stop protecting UK farms, which will not be good for agriculture... the USA will want us to strip our food standards, which will probably be good for business but bad for the country's health... I do hope that we can do well and I am very relieved that we did not crash out without a deal but I really do fear we have put ourselves in a bit of a bad position here. Hope I'm wrong.

[Bobbisox1]

Already the EU tried to flex its muscles and made a right pigs ear of it ( vaccines) and Europe are way behind the UK getting the vaccines to its member states, I have no regrets putting my cross to leave, Trade will follow when we get out of this pandemic , via Canada and NZ to name but two, yes it's bad here right now, it's bad everywhere across the world unfortunately

[Jackdaw33]

Even the mention of the name 'Edward Heath' makes me sick to my stomach. If anyone is to blame for Brexit it is him, for getting us into this mess in the first place. He let Britain go to rack and ruin in pursuit of his ideological European dream. Happy was the day when he was defeated, paving the way for Mrs Thatcher, who at least cared more about Britain than Europe.

[tamborine]

EEC were equally as prosperous when UK joined. Morphed EU now has less prosperous new countries as members ie post russian, Poland, Yugoslavia et al, that swallow finance from wealthier members for their infrastucture. There is also the open-door policy for economic migrants divided between EU members that few members can sustain.

Prior to EEC/EU we traded with Australia, NZ, HK, far east & middle east that made UK wealthy enuf to be courted by EEC for membership.

UK retains goodwill with past traders & with the advantage of the Commonwealth we will prosper without EU restrictions.

[satprof]

Tamborine - Yes, I recall the 'courting' from De Gaulle: repeated "Non"s when we asked if we could join. I also recall the state of our economy: strikes left, right & centre, 3-day weeks, ..... They were desperate to have us, I don't think.

[ichkeria]

“Yugoslavia” ???

Jeez

Good luck getting anyone in your target approach the question seriously :-)

[andy-hughes]

satprof - I am sure you did applaud Mr Heath when Britain joined the EEC, but the EU is a very different animal, and the intervening decades have shown clearly that the EU is far more of a federalist state with autonomy as its rule than a benign trading agreement.

As to the correctness of the decicion to leave, I believe it is still far to early to tell - we will have to wait for everything to settle down and a number of deals and agreements to be sorted before we can really agree if it was a wise move or not.

[Sunk]

The jury is out.
Countries will want to trade with us.
In theory dealing direct with the UK Gov should be easier and better for both parties.
But I have my doubts about the competency and talent (or lack of it) of our Government and its Ministers.

[jno]

Heath took Britain into the EU. Thatcher signed the Single European Act. Major signed the Maastricht treaty. Britain in Europe was a Tory project from beginning to end. About all Labour did was hold a referendum to see if people wanted to stay in Europe, and keep Britain out of the Eurozone.

[archibaldy]

We haven't been selling many 'world beating' consumer products, because we don't have many, and most have been sold off, the UK GDP is 70% services.

That's not to say we aren't world leaders in financial services, advertising and many cutting edge technologies such as software and industrial processes and we are are integral suppliers to many high value brands worldwide, but these are typically smaller organisations that were doing that business anyway and will continue to do so for the high price that excellence deserves. It does make me wonder what we hope to sell in Vietnam that we weren't anyway. In any case it's too early to tell how things will pan out but here's hoping.

[New Judge]

We've only been out for 55 days!

[lankeela]

Well the UK hasn't sunk without trace into the English Channel as some predicted - I think the current situation is looking extremely good after such a short time and it can only get better. We just need to concentrate on making and selling more home made stuff at home and exporting less.

[ichkeria]

Usually when people vote for a change of government of status quo it’s when they’re convinced that they’ll be materially better off as a result.
The EU referendum was an exception to that, partly I think because for one reason or another people either didn’t understand, didn’t believe or didn’t care about the dire economic warnings, laughed off as “project fear” by some and barely contested by the leave campaign, which was promoting a different argument.
Trade wise the best that can be holed fir is that things will largely be the same as before with trade deals which may barely compensate for difficulties at home.
There is a serious school of thought that pictures Britain allying itself with the alien business cultures and practises of the Far East having turned out back to an extent with our neighbours, with whom we may disagree and fall out more than with other countries — as neighbours often do, but with whom we have more in common culturally politically socially geographically and trading wise. I think things will settle down but it may take a while for the battle lines slowly to be dismantled on either side