How Long Could The Uk Hold Out In The Face Of A French Port Blockade?

[satprof]

Nobody seems to have raised the issue of a long-term port blockade by French (& maybe Belgian) fishermen should they be banned from fishing in UK waters from next Jan 1st.

Such blockades have been 'successful' in the past in that the fishermen were given most of what they wanted & called off the action after a few days. I was caught up in one of these a few years ago and conditions around Calais were completely chaotic. Many years of living in France tell me that such action is probably already in the planning phase. Relatively small threats to people's standard of living frequently lead to action in 'the streets'. Here we have a threat to fishermen's ability 'to put bread on the table' & anyone who believes that serious action won't be taken just doesn't understand the issues.

There is also the question of 'acquired rights', which are taken much more seriously in France than in the UK. In many areas of life, having done something for many years enshrines such actions in some kind of 'holy writ', whatever the legalities.

Hence my question - Could the UK survive a blockade affecting a very large part of its economy for more than a week?; more than two weeks? I doubt if it could cope for more than a month, but if the fishermen's livelihoods have been taken away, they'll fight for as long as is needed. You can be sure that the 'gilets jaunes' would be on their side along with public opinion.

This is not a pleasant scenario.

[Togo]

Are these the blokes who can't "blockade" a few dinghies that are crewed by mainly desert dwellers "in" port even with £squillions in bribes? If we give the French the right to fish our National waters at will ... what next? Will the Japanese, Chinese, South Koreans, South Africans, etc. etc. insist on the same rights if we want to have trading deals with them? I would if I was the Trade Minister for any Country that we want to do business with.

[webbo3]

so they will blockade vessels bringing French, Spanish, German and other European products to us, I don't think they will like a hit to their economies, and i'm quite sure our navy will keep the ports open.

[bhg481]

Our navy has no right to keep Calais open.

[Jackdaw33]

Calais was Britain's last possession in France, lost in 1558. Perhaps it's time to recapture it.

[Togo]

Do the French fishermen have the right to close it? Our Navy opened it again for them in 1944, they had the "right" then I suppose.

[AuntPollyGrey]

The French Fishermen will bob about in their little boats until the French authorities realise that they are not only impeding Imports they are impeding Exports. As soon as the EU economy is affected the Fishermen will be removed.

[Theland]

Europe themselves would not stand for it IMHO.

[satprof]

Togo, There is, and never has been, any question of foreigners fishing 'at will', so kindly don't exaggerate.

As for suggesting that fishermen should be stopping illegal immigrants, why should they? They have a living to earn, and that is being threatened by the very people who don't want the illegals. Not exactly conducive to
encourage help from them, is it?

[Togo]

//As for suggesting that fishermen should be stopping illegal immigrants, why should they?//

No that is you suggesting that. Stop projecting, I said no such thing.

[Togo]

No one is trying to stop them earning a living. We are trying to stop them pillaging our waters when they have more than enough of their own. Any fishing or presence within our National borders is only acceptable with our consent. Just like it is for us in their territories.

[satprof]

French fishermen, with their livelihoods at stake, will not care a fig about the impact on the French economy, let alone the wider European impact.

As for 'Europe' forbidding it, that would take weeks or months and the pressure of public opinion will be totally anti-UK. At the end of the day, less than 10% of EU trade would be affected whilst, IMHO, at least 50% of the UK economy could be crippled.

[satprof]

It isn't a question of simply allowing or not allowing people into our territory. We want a trade deal to allow us to sell into their sovereign territory & would like deals for our service industries as well. We risk all of that for 0.2% of our GDP, and for mainly the type of fish, like mackerel & herring, that we don't eat anyway.

[Jackdaw33]

//mainly the type of fish, like mackerel & herring, that we don't eat anyway.\\

Speak for yourself.

[satprof]

Jackdaw - OK, fish that we don't eat very much, then. (I also like both herring & mackerel but, in reality, eat them only a couple of times per year.)

[Togo]

Tell me ... why is this tiny income source, according to you, so meaningless to us but massively important to the frogs? It is more than the price of fish. The EUSSR knows it, and some of us know it. I suspect that even the anti British who are still whinging know it, but they always did have an ulterior motive that was not necessarily to the benefit of Britain. You lost in a democratic vote, get over it or get some therapy.

[Jackdaw33]

No herring - no kippers.

[Arrods]

Perhaps we should get used to eating more mackerel and herring - as well as lamb. (I like lamb).

[Khandro]

Not sure what you mean by blockade of ports, do you mean trying to prevent ALL traffic, both in & out?

[Old_Geezer]

Forever. We don't need the ports of any single belligerent country. Their loss.

[satprof]

Togo - Let's not get personal about this. As it happens, I didn't get a vote, live (now) in Spain, and will not be much impacted by any mess in which the UK finds itself. Unfortunately, I'm appalled by the concept that the UK can go it alone in the world, on the basis that it has some magic characteristics that will see it beat the best of the rest.

In truth, we produce many great ideas but are very poor when it comes to turning those ideas into profitable products the world wants to buy. All this emphasis on trade deals misses the point that we are no longer much of a manufacturing nation. Trade deals with many of the countries so far discussed will simply kill off much of our remaining manufacturing as we allow our competitors tariff-free access to our home market. Yet these deals are spoken of as if they are the Holy Grail.

It's often said that you should be careful what you wish for. It may well be that the 'independence' that was desired comes at a price that proves to be too high.