The situation will be clearer when "winter pressures" normally start Usually January in previous years to flu and colds resulting in secondary bacterial chest infections/pneumonia mostly in the elderly. My guess is that curve will be significantly flattened as older people are not exposed to everyday viruses. There has also been a wider availability of flu vaccine, to more people than the usual vulnerable groups and carers. There will be "covid" pressure but with a reduction in the usual admissions the NHS has a far better chance of getting through without being overwhelmed.