Some Revealing Truths

[allenlondon]

Togo posted this on a different thread, but I think it’s important enough to be more widely circulated. (Science, not scare-stories!)

This is what he posted:

“Found a few interesting stats comparing death rates up to March 13th(Week 11 2020)

""The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 13 March 2020 (week 11) was 11,019; this represents an increase of 124 deaths registered in comparison with the previous week (week 10). The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 11,205.

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in February 2020 was 43,653; this represents a decrease of 13,053 deaths in comparison with the previous month and a decrease of 2,143 deaths in comparison with the same month in 2019.""”

Not saying for a moment that Covid19 isn’t a massive problem, or that the lockdown is going too far, not at all - but scientific perspective will help us all keep to the rules and survive.

Allen

[Togo]

Lord Sumption writing in the Times has criticised the British government’s lockdown measures on the grounds of liberty. He raises concerns that Britain is being turned into a “police state” and that this may have disastrous long-term consequences. He said.

“There is a difference between law and official instructions. It is the difference between a democracy and a police state,” adding: “Liberty and the rule of law are surely worth something even in the face of a pandemic.”

There are more and more thoughtful people questioning the wisdom of some of the measures being forced on us no matter how well intended the reasons for them. Meanwhile plod in London is busy reiterating that they want the public to snitch on each other for supposed Coronavirus hate crimes. Suppose it may work in London mind....so many enclaves that have a grudge against each other have been allowed to flourish.

[woofgang]

instruction and suggestion was tried and didn't work. Fools are entitled to risk their own lives but not to increase the risk for others.

[fiction-factory]

Thanks for the info, although I'm not sure how it helps us keep to the rules and survive.

[Atheist]

Allen, what's your interpretation of these statistics?

[ichkeria]

There are lies, damned lies ....
You can prove more or less anything or make any point by how you use figures.
The whole point of this initially was to spread out the “peak” so the NHS was not overwhelmed. However I think the idea now is simply to limit the damage any way possible.
The last major epidemic here I think was 1968 and before that 1957, and although many more died I think they died over a longer period and the impact was less intense.
Everything happens more quickly now and hence the justifiable alarm.

[Togo]

Lord Sumption.....when I read the name I thought it might be a con......
Consumption indeed.

[allenlondon]

Well atheist, not too sure - but ichkeria's response sums up most uneducated people's reaction to statistics - they haven't got a clue.

The figures DO show that last year's overall deaths were similar to (or a little higher) than this year's, which in itself doesn't prove much.

I suppose what it does underline is the media-generated hysteria, 'bought' by the majority (including Johnson and his oiks), but I'm not sure that telling the truth would be much wiser. The only way we can get away with the Great Lockdown is to overhype the death rates. Saying "well, quite a few people will die" doesn't have the same ring as "death toll rises to over 1000!", does it? (And the Lockdown is probably a good wheeze in combatting Covid).

The British people have never been taught to understand statistics - look at the absurd reaction to the government medical officer's comments about 'six months' yesterday. She said one thing, all the media only heard the 'six months', and hyped it accordingly.

Not sure of the answer... I've been self-isolating for years, anyway

Allen.

[allenlondon]

Jonathan Philip Chadwick Sumption, Lord Sumption, OBE, PC, FSA, FRHistS.

But I bet his nickname was Con, Togo.

[Canary42]

Statistically you should go out and buy two lottery tickets as the chances of winning are 50:50.

a) You lose
b) You win

[Gromit]

Sumption was Justice of the Supreme Court, so he knows what he is talking about legally. He’s a Tory.

[allenlondon]

Even I (unreconstructed Marxist) don’t condemn people purely because of their allegiances.

Does he/she talk sense is my first question. The answer is very often “No”, but in Sumption’s case it is “Yes”.