The Reason Why The Conservatives Will Do Badly In London Tonight?

[sp1814]

How true are the sentiments made by the top rated commenters on this story (with regards to tonight’s local elections, and the chances the Tories have):

- The conservatives have no hope in London because it is no longer an English city.

- As there are very few actual "real"British people living in London any longer ,is it any wonder she will lose all her seats?

- London is lost to immigration, it has been invaded. These people vote for their religion not for party policies.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5684911/Tories-Theresa-braced-bruising-night-polls-fears-near-wipe-capital.html#comments

[ToraToraTora]

Londonistan is pretty much Labour to start with.

[anotheoldgit]

Yes I don't know why they bother to falsify the vote, when everyone knows they hold the majority vote.

[sp1814]

TTT

You may very well have a point. I don’t recall a time when London ever ‘went blue’...not even in the time of YGL.

[cassa333]

I wonder what actual and real statistics (as opposed to it looks like from my front window lol) what the makeup of the London population is.

I'm not particularly asking colour or religion, although that could be a suplimentary question. More about what nationality are people. More a case of British x%, European y% (Polish ya%, Latvian yb% etc), Australian z% etc.

The census probably has that sort of thing but I just wonder what the present demographic is and what density and location.

[mushroom25]

here's a party that looks set to do well in Tower Hamlets - despite its leader being as corrupt as the come (not my judgment but that of the electoral court)...
http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/seasonal/election/elections-lutfur-rahman-back-in-the-ring-for-new-aspire-party-manifesto-in-tower-hamlets-vote-for-mayor-1-5476626

[New Judge]

It is unlikely that the true demographics of London will ever be known accurately. Many of the people in the UK illegally reside in London and their numbers will not appear among any official data. Having said that, they would be unable to vote so their numbers should make no difference to elections.

[jno]

sp1814, don't forget that Boris Johnson was the last London mayor. He was more or less voted in by suburban outer London; Labour voters live closer to the centre. The town's fairly well balanced politically, so the popularity of the party in power nationally may be important in influencing swing voters.

[youngmafbog]

I wouldn't expect them to do well in London ever given the population of it.

In addition as the Tories have been in power 8 years it should be expected that 'protest' votes against the Government override the local issues. I suspect you may see labour gain votes but I'm not sure these would translate into a General Election where the prospect of Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry and Mcdonnel would make most shudder.

[ToraToraTora]

yes YMB we should expect to see Labour do well but it never ceases to amaze me that people will vote for Agent COB and the anti semites.

[Jackdaw33]

// I don’t recall a time when London ever ‘went blue’...not even in the time of YGL.\\

The GLC was run by the Tories during the time of Callaghan.

[mushroom25]

//The GLC was run by the Tories during the time of Callaghan.//

oddly enough, at each GLC election during its existence, the winners were the party that were in national opposition.

[Gromit]

It wasn’t so long ago that London voted for a Conservative Mayor for two terms.
The demographics have not changed so startlingly in 2 years, so the bogus notion that no one British lives in London anymore is a desperate excuse.
What is different is an incredibly poor national Government, weak leader, split leading party, and the ongoing paralysis of extracting ourselves from the EU.

It looks possible that the Conservatives will be hit outside the capital just as badly. Their only Manchester Council, Trafford, looks to be under threat.

[emmie]

i will go along with some of that, here's one real Londoner that voted and Conservative to boot. No problem with that at all, but London is often seen as a lost cause, i sincerely hope not.

[Huderon]

cassa, have a look at https://www.trustforlondon.org.uk/data/londons-population-country-birth/ which gives you some idea of the proportion of London residents bone in foreign countries.

And if you want a feel for the ethnic makeup, look at http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/london-population/

In both cases the figures are, as far as I know, based on the population of Greater London.

[fender62]

Huderon, interesting links specially this one
https://www.trustforlondon.org.uk/data/worklessness-country-birth/

[Huderon]

fender, if you read the bit below the graph it mentions that people born in the UK make up 52% of the worlessness total. It also explains what is meant by worklessness - in this case lumping together people who are out of work and those who are economically inactive, which could include people who have retired and are living on pensions.

[vetuste_ennemi]

//The conservatives have no hope in London because it is no longer an English city//

The "conservatives" have no hope anywhere[i. That's because there are no [i]conservative] candidates to vote for. (There are, of course, plenty of big Cs who've adopted the name, but left the principles on the back seat of a taxi.)

With three candidates to nominate I looked at the list - several Labour, several "Conservative" and one Green - I put a single X against the only name which even hinted at anything I believe in - the candidate standing for Polish Pride.

[Jackdaw33]

I agree v-e. The vast majority of 'Conservatives' are unworthy of the name of Tory.

[vetuste_ennemi]

This, Huderon, from the Fender article:

"This graph shows the proportion of working-age[i men and women who are workless (unemployed or economically inactive) by their [i]country of birth]."

(Spot the fuzzy area here?)

Anyway, there are many London residents are in need of a free hand-out and will vote for the party which offers one.

[Jackdaw33]

Too early to say yet but first results show a Tory gain of 4 seats and a Labour loss of two. Might the pundits be confounded?