Aintree Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

Spent a couple of hours last night, running the rule over the strongest stats for each race. These are some of those stats and my provisional selections (non-runners willing, etc);

1.45; All 11 past winners in first 3 in market. 10/11 beaten at Cheltenham, particularly Marsh Novices. Nicky Henderson has trained 2 of the 11 winners.
Selection; Fusil Raffles currently 11/4

2.20; 22/25 winners either won or placed in graded races earlier in season. 14 of the last 15 winners were placed lto. French bred account for 11/21 winners. 8/15 favs obliged.
Selection; Adagio currently 6/4

2.50; 25/36 winners ran in that seasons Gold Cup but just 2 of 14 placed at the Festival won this race. Better to look at those who were outside the first 3 in the GC. 12 of last 23 winners had placed in first 4 in King George same season and 2nd/3rd favs have accounted for 12 of the last 27 winners.
Selection; Native River* currently 5/1

3.25; 9 of last 23 winners ran in last years race, 7 placing. 21/43 winners were trained in Ireland and most had bypassed Cheltenham in total contrast to the 24 British trained winners which all ran at Cheltenham. All winners since 2008 ran within 49 days of this race. Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2011, '12, '17 & '18.
Selection; Jason The Militant* currently 3/1

4.05; 18/20 winners came from first 5 in betting, 34/36 winners were aged at least 9 years old and 23/28 were placed lto. 13/18 did not begin in PTP.
Selection; Sametegal* currently 13/2

4.40; Just 1 of 11 winners carried more than 11-2 to victory. 10/18 were novices.
Selection; Dostal Phil* currently 14/1

5.15; No real strong stats.
Selection; Elle Est Belle currently 3/1

* Denotes probable Lucky 15 bet. Others will go in a Trixie/Treble.

Back when my decision has been made. Best of luck, all.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Did you look at these stats too?

https://www.horsedeathwatch.com/#c=11&j=&g=&sd=&;ed=&p=1

[johnny.5]

where else would Mr elliott sit ?

[AuntPollyGrey]

On his sofa Jonny - him being banned for cruelty and all that.

[Ken4155]

There's always one. Why not start your own doomladen tread, APG.

[johnny.5]

I have chosen protektorat @ 8:1 in the 13:45 extra place (3)
and also sametegal @ 5:1 in the 16.05 extra place (4)
then grey diamond @ 8:1 in the 16:40 extra place (5)

each way patent

[Ken4155]

Best of luck, Johnny :-).

I have seen or heard nothing to make me change my mind as regards my selections, so the Lucky 15 prices are (in order); 11/2, 3/1, 13/2 & 12/1. 4 x £5 wins, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £21, 4 winners = poss £2,786.

The other 3 are in a £1 Trixie, £1 Treble and are priced; 3/1, 11/8 & 3/1 for a poss return of £111.

Also done the placepot with first 6 selections, and the ITV 7 with the qualifying 5 at Aintree plus these two from Taunton; Motdepas and Flanagan's Field. £1 e.w. acca.

Once again, best of luck, all.

[Togo]

Morning Ken, I have not gone awol this week, just been very busy. This is actually a very high quality meeting that has been overshadowed by the one race for many years, and the accompanying screech ghouls of course. Had a look this morning but only at todays races for now. Did these 4 at Aintree in a little e/w acca with e/w trebles and win doubles.

Waiting Patiently @4/1 2.50
Mcfabulous @5/1 3.25
Cat Tiger @6/1 4.05
Grey Diamond @8/1 4.40

Put Monmiral, San Agustin, & Theocrat with them for the ITV7. Good luck to you all.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Ken I think you will find there is actually quite a lot more than 'just one' and I have no intention of starting a doom ridden thread.

That link is reality. I don't wish to ban anything (other than the use of the whip but that really is another thread) but think that anyone enjoying a sport involving animals should be aware what some of the consequences are. If you are ok with that then that's your choice, your conscience.

[pixie374]

Still safer than hacking though...

[Ken4155]

What i meant by my snide remark, APG, is that whenever the Cheltenham or Aintree meetings come round, someone will pop up on the thread with a link similar to yours, and sometimes the threads are hijacked.
While i appreciate where you're coming from, can i ask how you cajoled your horses around the PTP course when you were competing, APG?

[Togo]

// can i ask how you cajoled your horses around the PTP course when you were competing, APG?//
... and how heavy you were? :))

[AuntPollyGrey]

Togo I Pt-to Pt as an amateur. Weighed around 9 stone at the time so had to use weights -sometimes 2 to 3 stone of weights. Only did ladies races and hunt races as I worked on a Yard and my job was to ride them out. This was in the late 1970's and I did not use/need a whip -it's not compulsory. My claim to fame was coming 2nd in in a ladies race at Wetherby when I was just supposed to hack the horse round -basically I got ran away with. lol!

[Ken4155]

Fusil Raffles pulled up after a blunder. Things can only get better, surely :-((
Protektorat wins - nice pick Johnny :-)

[pixie374]

Apg, ptp isn't "safe" for horses. We risk them every time they are ridden- particularly on roads.
Whips don't help, they actually make the horse go slightly sideways and are restricted anyway.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Nothing is safe for horses Pixie. I stopped riding and working in the Industry cos I saw too many things that need not have happened. I've ridden for 50 years and seen a lot in that time. All sports involving horses can involve unnecessary cruelty -Dressage is terrible!

Anyway, this is hijacking Kens thread, so I'll leave it there. People should make informed choices wherever possible.

[Spicerack]

They've allowed the Irish amateurs to come over this time. I'll have to do his two rides today.
Nothing really leaping out at me.
If you need any advice, ken, don't be afraid to ask. ;-)

[pixie374]

I agree, apg, (and apologies ken) but I also think horses should be allowed their instincts, breeding, risks and lives.

[Spicerack]

^Talking about Derek O'Connor.
I'm an idiot.

[Ken4155]

Whose two rides, Spice?

[Ken4155]

He has five rides in all this week.