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Herd Immunity
14 Answers
Yesterday ITV reported that the favoured Tory Covid-19 strategy was to allow the British public to develop "herd immunity".
In the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine this is a terrifying proposal: Mass exposure to the virus so people develop immunity to the strain, in the hope that it doesn't just keep mutating into new strains like the flu and common cold do.
Mass exposure undoubtedly means mass death (not just from the virus itself, but amongst other critically ill people who are crowded out of the health system), and Johnson was shockingly upfront about it when he warned the British public about the loss of their loved ones later in the day.
If the virus is allowed to spread to the point that the public acquire herd immunity, that would have to mean something like 90% exposure. With a death rate of somewhere around 2%-4%, that would require somewhere between 1.2 to 2.4 million deaths!
This strategy is completely out of step with the Asian countries that have contained the exponential spread of the virus, and with all of our European neighbours who have brought in measures like school closures, travel restrictions, and sports shut downs.
We of course are led by hard-right 'let the vulnerable die' eugenicists.
And we know the Tories are prepared to let tens of thousands die as a result of their policies after their wanton cuts to the NHS and social care systems pushed huge numbers of people into early graves over the last decade.
In the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine this is a terrifying proposal: Mass exposure to the virus so people develop immunity to the strain, in the hope that it doesn't just keep mutating into new strains like the flu and common cold do.
Mass exposure undoubtedly means mass death (not just from the virus itself, but amongst other critically ill people who are crowded out of the health system), and Johnson was shockingly upfront about it when he warned the British public about the loss of their loved ones later in the day.
If the virus is allowed to spread to the point that the public acquire herd immunity, that would have to mean something like 90% exposure. With a death rate of somewhere around 2%-4%, that would require somewhere between 1.2 to 2.4 million deaths!
This strategy is completely out of step with the Asian countries that have contained the exponential spread of the virus, and with all of our European neighbours who have brought in measures like school closures, travel restrictions, and sports shut downs.
We of course are led by hard-right 'let the vulnerable die' eugenicists.
And we know the Tories are prepared to let tens of thousands die as a result of their policies after their wanton cuts to the NHS and social care systems pushed huge numbers of people into early graves over the last decade.
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I disagree with the OP, and this is why.
For most, the symptoms are mild. So mild that many do not even realise they are infectious, do not report it and are never counted among the statistics. The only way of identifying them is by testing for antibodies, after the crisis has passed. This is why data on percentage mortality are so varied and opaque. We simply do not know how many cases there are.
It is possible (as Korea has done) to have very widespread testing, to get good data on real infection rates.
In my opinion, that is the main weakness of the government response – there should be far more testing to track the progress of the illness and check that the real data matches the modelling data.
In a relatively small number of people who become infected, there is a complication that results (most often) in bilateral interstitial pneumonia (BIP) around 10 days after the first infection. That means a lot of sticky, viscous mucus builds up in the lungs and eventually leads to death by various different routes. That takes a few days. That happens in some younger people, but more often in older people and especially in those who already have compromised lung function.
It is worth repeating that there is no immunity to this new illness in the UK. There is no treatment. The only option is care as the disease takes its course.
Among those who develop BIP, death can be delayed by giving oxygen and aiding breathing mechanically. In a very few cases, this gives the body a chance to fight back, and the patient recovers. But once BIP has set in, most die.
This cannot be compared with annual influenza. With ‘flu there is an annual vaccine offered free by the NHS to more vulnerable members of our society. The ‘flu that sweeps through the northern hemisphere each year is carefully studied and analysed and there are systems in place to develop vaccines and other treatments. There is also natural immunity among the population. This combination of natural immunity and vaccination slows spread substantially.
Because there is no immunity to Covid-19 in the community, the illness will return periodically, and infect those who lack natural immunity, and have not been vaccinated. At present, no-one has been vaccinated (there are no vaccines), but vaccination will probably begin in Autumn 2021, or as vaccines become available.
Continued below
For most, the symptoms are mild. So mild that many do not even realise they are infectious, do not report it and are never counted among the statistics. The only way of identifying them is by testing for antibodies, after the crisis has passed. This is why data on percentage mortality are so varied and opaque. We simply do not know how many cases there are.
It is possible (as Korea has done) to have very widespread testing, to get good data on real infection rates.
In my opinion, that is the main weakness of the government response – there should be far more testing to track the progress of the illness and check that the real data matches the modelling data.
In a relatively small number of people who become infected, there is a complication that results (most often) in bilateral interstitial pneumonia (BIP) around 10 days after the first infection. That means a lot of sticky, viscous mucus builds up in the lungs and eventually leads to death by various different routes. That takes a few days. That happens in some younger people, but more often in older people and especially in those who already have compromised lung function.
It is worth repeating that there is no immunity to this new illness in the UK. There is no treatment. The only option is care as the disease takes its course.
Among those who develop BIP, death can be delayed by giving oxygen and aiding breathing mechanically. In a very few cases, this gives the body a chance to fight back, and the patient recovers. But once BIP has set in, most die.
This cannot be compared with annual influenza. With ‘flu there is an annual vaccine offered free by the NHS to more vulnerable members of our society. The ‘flu that sweeps through the northern hemisphere each year is carefully studied and analysed and there are systems in place to develop vaccines and other treatments. There is also natural immunity among the population. This combination of natural immunity and vaccination slows spread substantially.
Because there is no immunity to Covid-19 in the community, the illness will return periodically, and infect those who lack natural immunity, and have not been vaccinated. At present, no-one has been vaccinated (there are no vaccines), but vaccination will probably begin in Autumn 2021, or as vaccines become available.
Continued below
Continued from above.
The measures being put in place are designed to do a number of things:
Delay spread by hand-washing. People have mocked this, but it is proven to delay the spread. Soap and water destroy the virus by breaking the outer layer of lipids, exposing the internal RNA, which cannot survive without its protective coat of lipids.
If you have any symptoms, remain indoors for five days. Once the cough appears, the patient is highly infectious. That stage lasts between five and seven days. After seven days, the possibility of infecting others drops dramatically. Staying away from others; washing hands and ensuring that the cough is caught with a tissue and then binned is astonishingly effective in minimising spread.
Currently, according to data from testing and modelling, there are around 10,000 cases in the UK – of which only a few hundred have been identified (see above) – out of a population of 63mn. It is doubling every three to four days. That is still below the threshold of mass infection. If most people adopt precautions mentioned above, the spread is well below the threshold that lead inevitably to very rapid growth in the number of patients.
The more people who ignore these measures, the faster the illness will spread in the general population
Eventually, the number will reach a threshold level, and the spread will become like a chain reaction. The hope in government is that arrives only in the Summer when the NHS is less busy with other Winter illnesses, and there is a view that the virus is less transmissible in warmer air, though that is disputed by the WHO for example ( https:/
The point about herd immunity is that there is currently no immunity, so the illness can spread very rapidly. As immunity builds up in the community, the spread is much slower.
The aim of building herd immunity is to prevent a repeat of the disruption seen in China, Italy and elsewhere when the illness returns in the Autumn, or later in the year. If enough people have built up anti-bodies, then the spread will be much slower next time around.
Meanwhile, the short-term aim is also to protect the vulnerable as much as possible by isolating them from potential sources of infection. Having said that it will be up to all of us to protect those we hold dear. By ensuring they are not exposed, or by minimising exposure to the virus.
Within a few weeks, if Wuhan, Lombardy and other regions are anything to go by, the NHS will be overwhelmed by cases of BIP, with health professionals exhausted and probably ill themselves. First, there will be no spare ventilators for the elderly, and second, the health system will not be able to cope. As mentioned, there is no treatment once DIP has set in.
If you have vulnerable relatives, make plans now for the time when things may get more difficult.
Alternatively, accuse me of scare-mongering and do nothing. The health of you and your relatives are not my concern.
If you are interested, check these out:
https:/
https:/
If you want to check some of the misinformation out there this is a helpful resource:
https:/
You might also be interested in these Twitter feeds
THis describes the current situation in Italy: (from a registrar in UK
hospital)
https:/
See also this thread:
https:/
Both threads mirror precisely the situation in Wuhan around a month ago, as it unfolded there.
The measures being put in place are designed to do a number of things:
Delay spread by hand-washing. People have mocked this, but it is proven to delay the spread. Soap and water destroy the virus by breaking the outer layer of lipids, exposing the internal RNA, which cannot survive without its protective coat of lipids.
If you have any symptoms, remain indoors for five days. Once the cough appears, the patient is highly infectious. That stage lasts between five and seven days. After seven days, the possibility of infecting others drops dramatically. Staying away from others; washing hands and ensuring that the cough is caught with a tissue and then binned is astonishingly effective in minimising spread.
Currently, according to data from testing and modelling, there are around 10,000 cases in the UK – of which only a few hundred have been identified (see above) – out of a population of 63mn. It is doubling every three to four days. That is still below the threshold of mass infection. If most people adopt precautions mentioned above, the spread is well below the threshold that lead inevitably to very rapid growth in the number of patients.
The more people who ignore these measures, the faster the illness will spread in the general population
Eventually, the number will reach a threshold level, and the spread will become like a chain reaction. The hope in government is that arrives only in the Summer when the NHS is less busy with other Winter illnesses, and there is a view that the virus is less transmissible in warmer air, though that is disputed by the WHO for example ( https:/
The point about herd immunity is that there is currently no immunity, so the illness can spread very rapidly. As immunity builds up in the community, the spread is much slower.
The aim of building herd immunity is to prevent a repeat of the disruption seen in China, Italy and elsewhere when the illness returns in the Autumn, or later in the year. If enough people have built up anti-bodies, then the spread will be much slower next time around.
Meanwhile, the short-term aim is also to protect the vulnerable as much as possible by isolating them from potential sources of infection. Having said that it will be up to all of us to protect those we hold dear. By ensuring they are not exposed, or by minimising exposure to the virus.
Within a few weeks, if Wuhan, Lombardy and other regions are anything to go by, the NHS will be overwhelmed by cases of BIP, with health professionals exhausted and probably ill themselves. First, there will be no spare ventilators for the elderly, and second, the health system will not be able to cope. As mentioned, there is no treatment once DIP has set in.
If you have vulnerable relatives, make plans now for the time when things may get more difficult.
Alternatively, accuse me of scare-mongering and do nothing. The health of you and your relatives are not my concern.
If you are interested, check these out:
https:/
https:/
If you want to check some of the misinformation out there this is a helpful resource:
https:/
You might also be interested in these Twitter feeds
THis describes the current situation in Italy: (from a registrar in UK
hospital)
https:/
See also this thread:
https:/
Both threads mirror precisely the situation in Wuhan around a month ago, as it unfolded there.
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