It really depends on how we define the so-called �cold war�. The Soviet Union was a democratic realisation of the people. It was �bastardised� by Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili (better known as Stalin �man of steel�) amongst others. He killed, or had killed Leon Trotsky. Lenin, on his death bed wrote a letter asking that Stalin should not be allowed to take control. Stalin had the letter intercepted. Stalin took control of the USSR. Under his iron rule, these Soviet Sates were never the Socialist Rebublic that great men such as Trotsky, Lenin and others dreamed of. The Politburo were under the will of Stalin, for to disagree meant certain death. Long live the Socialist revolution!
So. Back to the question. �Did the Soviet Union break up as a result of the cold war?�. No, I do not think so. The Soviet Union fell because of the terrible impositions put upon it by the likes of Stalin.
As for winners or stalemate? There were certainly no winners. Perhaps Stalin, since he died in power. But the people may take a different view.