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10 Years Since The Scottish "Independence" Vote.......
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What has changed? would the result be any different today?
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“I think a lot of Scots are hugely disappointed that they voted not to leave the UK on the premise that staying in the union was the only way to guarantee remaining in the European Union.”
Then they did not listen to their (SNP) government of the day. Here’s the advisory document that was published prior to the referendum:
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Under “International Relations and Defence” it says this:
“We will continue to be a member of the EU and will have a seat at the top table to represent Scotland's interests more effectively; we will not be at risk of leaving the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people”
It should have been clear to those Scots wishing to remain in the EU (as it was to their government) and who voted in the 2014 referendum that there was a significant groundswell of opinion in England and Wales against the UK’s membership of the EU. Any move to take the UK out of the EU would almost certainly be determined by English voters and/or their Westminster MPs (both being in the overwhelming majority), and this was recognised by the Scottish government’s warning which I emphasised from the passage above.
Also, it was clear that a referendum on membership was very likely to be held. David Cameron made a pledge in his famous “Bloomberg” speech on 23rd January 2013 – a full twenty months before the Scottish referendum – that an “in/out” referendum would be held if the Conservatives were returned to power in 2015:
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A few selected extracts:
"Today, public disillusionment with the EU is at an all time high. There are several reasons for this.
People feel that the EU is heading in a direction that they never signed up to. They resent the interference in our national life by what they see as unnecessary rules and regulation. And they wonder what the point of it all is.
Put simply, many ask “why can’t we just have what we voted to join - a common market?”
They are angered by some legal judgements made in Europe that impact on life in Britain.
The result is that democratic consent for the EU in Britain is now wafer thin.
It is time for the British people to have their say. It is time to settle this European question in British politics.
I say to the British people: this will be your decision."
There should have been no doubt in anybody’s mind in September 2014 that the possibility of the UK leaving the EU was very real (even though few people in their wildest dreams believed that "Leave" would prevail).
By contrast the SNP government believed that an independent Scotland would have been granted EU membership quite readily. Whether or not this was true wasn’t tested but it’s really not correct to say that the Scots were persuaded to vote remain on the basis that it ensured EU membership.
"The scottish media made a big deal of Scotland getting ousted from the EU due to a Yes vote."
But that's different. You said "...they voted not to leave the UK on the premise that staying in the union was the only way to guarantee remaining in the European Union.”
But it provided no such guarantee and Scottish voters should have been well ware of that.
It was a stone cold certainty that Scotland would no longer be an EU member if it left the UK. It was the UK that held EU membership and if Scotland left the UK they left the EU. I'm sure voters must have been well aware of that.
But the Scottish government gave voters the impression that they would be admitted to the EU as an independent nation in fairly short order. The document I provided clearly states that ("We will continue to be a member of the EU"). Here's a publication entitled "Indpendence - What you need to know"
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"Following a vote for independence, this Scottish Government’s proposal is that Scotland would apply to re-join the European Union (EU) as soon as possible.
There is a clear process Scotland would follow to re-join the EU. With its experience of being part of the EU and following its laws, Scotland is well placed to move quickly through the membership process."
In short, although they would have to leave, according to the SNP government of the day, they would be readmitted pronto. Whether this would have been possible is unclear but the SNP government had a clear view that Scotland's place in the EU would be restored fairly quickly. I happen to think it would not hve happened that way and various opinions were published when the SNP was seeking second referendum three or four years go, This article seems to support my view:
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"A recent report by the Institute for Government concluded that the route to EU membership could take the best part of a decade. The two sets of negotiations – with the UK government on the terms of independence, and with the EU on the terms of accession – would both be extremely complex."
Those Scots seeking continued membership of the EU were in a cleft stick. If they remained in the UK they were subject to decisions made principally by the English, and there was certainly indictions that the UK might leave the EU (courtesy mainly of the English).
But if they voted for independence they would have been expelled from the EU immediately independence was granted, with no guarantee if or when they might be readmitted.
What is certain is that voting to remain in the UK provided no guarantee of continued EU membership and anybody voting to remain in the UK and who based their vote on that presumption had not made themselves properly aware of the true situation.
"As there was no guarantee the Tories would win the 2015 General Election, there was no guarantee of a Referendum was there?"
Indeed not, Corby. But the suggestion was that a vote to remain in the UK guaranteed that the Scots would remain in the EU ("... they voted not to leave the UK on the premise that staying in the union was the only way to guarantee remaining in the European Union.")
It clearly didn't offer such a guarantee.
In fact the most beneficial thing the Scots could have done in an effort to secure that goal would have been to vote to remain in the UK and then vote Labour in the 2015 GE. But they only returned one Labour MP from their 59 seats.
As it happens, had they returned 58 more Labour MPs the Conservatives would still have held an overall majority (albeit reduced from ten to eight, as the Scots returned one Tory MP).
But they didn't know that when they voted and, with the Independence Referendum going the way it did (and no prospect if a re-run any time soon) to ignore a party who had no intention of taking the UK out of the EU seems to indicate to me that their prime concern was not retaining Scotland's membership of the EU.
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