Irish mortgage rates? Should I fix now?

[flobadob]

Firstly I am in Ireland. I've been offered to fix my mortgage for 3 years at 4.25% or 5 years at 4.8%. At the moment I'm on 3.85% rising to 3.92% next month and since June it has risen from around 3.45%. Is there any way of working out whether interest rates will continue to rise or will they level out or even drop again? Obviously the last thing I want is to be paying 4.8% interest when the variable rate is down at 4%. Is there any way to make an educated decision on this or is it simply a gamble which you have to take? Usually I would prefer to know what I will be paying out rather than it being liable to change. Has anyone any advice for me, thanks.

[bednobs]

simply a gamble i'm afraid :)

[trionam]

you're lucky flobabob I fixed on 5.85% in 2008 for five years right before the rates came crashing down but at time I was thinking of what I could af/ford and stuck with that not knowing all that would be taken from our income in 08/09 budgets but I would usually see eddie hobbs as a good man for this kind of advice and he seems to think if you can get a good fixed rate now grab it.hope this help with your decision.

[flobadob]

That happened a mate of mine too, trionam, he fixed at 6% and it was not worth breaking it cos it would have cost him €6000 or something. The thing is they've risen .5% in five or six months so if they keep going like that fixing might be a good idea. I think I'll just go 3 years and see what happens.

If you are back reading this I was talking to the people at TRS and they said that from 2012 the most relief you can claim will be €25, rather than any percentage of the interest. I think a lot of people are gonna be totally screwed in Ireland over the next few years.

[trionam]

thats shocking I didnt know that, I really count on the relief at the moment with the way things are going I think they want to see us walking around the streets barefoot,I really think a 3 yr fixed is a good way to go I've no idea what it will be like when I come off my fixed in 3 yrs time good luck!

[flobadob]

I was lucky first time round as I got 4.2% in '06 and the rates kept rising then they dropped just before I came of my fixed period. Guess this whole thing is swings and roundabouts.

[Whickerman]

It isn't - the Euro central bank rate will definitely rise in the next 12-18 months to counter the inflation that's about to hit (it's started btw). Fix for 5 years and you'll be laughing soon. I'm about to do the same.

Also - TRS will be eliminated soon. Lenihan's already indicated this. We lost it 2 budgets back, he brought it back for some in the last budget but it will be gone with the €3bn (min) cuts he'll be imposing in december

[Whickerman]

As to Eddie Hobbs - he's really diluted his reputation with that ridiculous new show of his - consumer 'problems' that don't exist

[flobadob]

Nightmare.