First of all, it is not at all certain that Mr Duckenfield will face trial at all. He has already been prosecuted once (in 2000, privately) for the offences and the jury was unable to agree. The Attorney-General could have had this prosecution transferred to the CPS (who could have halted it) but did not do so. Although the prosecution was allowed to remain on file he was assured that he would not face a further prosecution for the same maters. There is a hearing in the High Court in a week or two to determine whether he can be prosecuted again.
If he is prosecuted my prediction is that, whilst he might (and it’s a very big might) be convicted if jury members, even if properly directed, want to see a scapegoat as some others seem to do, he will certainly succeed in having his conviction overturned on appeal. He made a mistake. Lots of people make mistakes but, as has been succinctly explained by 3Ts, simply making a mistake does not lay one open to a serious criminal charge. Also in Mr Duckenfield’s favour is the fact that he was recently promoted and had virtually no experience or training in aspects of command at such events. That was not his fault; his superiors authorised his deployment to the match and he did as he was told.
None of that excuses his subsequent contention that he had not authorised the opening of the gates and that it was drunken fans that had forced their way in. But he’s not facing charges in connection with that. I would be extremely surprised if Mr Duckenfield is convicted and the conviction is upheld. In fact, although I have not read the full details, if Mr Duckenfield has a “Get Out of Jail Free” note (similar to those provided to many murderers of people during the Irish “troubles”) it would be manifestly unjust to see him prosecuted at all.