Housing bubble - predictions....?

[marcoddy]

hi, I was very interested by the previous question on the housing bubble, and that people had looked intothe historic cycles of this.

Can anyone suggest any advice, books or websites that offer an excellent insight into this, including trigger events, attriburing factors. Maybe that way, I can be "one step ahead of the game" when the inevitable happens.

Thanks in advance to all that offer advice.

[Peahead66]

Hi there. I can recommend an excellent site that contains much information. There is also a forum for any specific questions ou might have, I find there are alot of knowledgable people over there http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

Other than that I suggest searching Google for information about the truth about fiat money and you will discover how property, oil, gold etc have been manipulated for decades. Best wishes.

[jake-the-peg]

This website is a classic case of what I was talking about in the other thread.

This site has been predicting imminant house price collapses for nearly 2 years - It's run by an economist, Greg Sutton with a banking organisation called BIS.

It looks as if he's actually trying to encourage a price crash - it's certainly not an unbiased assessment.

As for the Daily Mail, they've been predicting imminant collapse for even longer. I'm pretty sure they were warning 5 years ago when I moved.

It's a difficult decision for new buyers because they could wait forever for a crash that never comes but as long as they buy somewhere for the medium term that they can afford the payments on they should be OK.

The real problem is for property speculators which may be Mr. Sutton's interest.

If you are looking for triggers, look at what a mortgage costs somebody out of their paypacket. Look at average monthly mortgage repayments (interest rates and house prices) against people's average incomes.

And beware of taking financial advice from people who may have vested interests  

[Peahead66]

Peoples views on this also depend on whether they are homeowners or not too. New homeowners of course being more likely to be very resistant to the idea of a collapse. Many older homeowners who have lived through similar times though are saying they recognize the signs. But the only sure thing seems to be that those who dont learn form history are doomed to repeat it.

[jake-the-peg]

True but personally I don'y have an axe to grind.

I don't have any loans secured on my property, am not in any danger of negative equity but don't intend to leave my house except in a box.

Although I guess though if Mr Sutton and co could engineer a crash for about 10 or 12 years time when my kids will want to buy that'd be handy.

What I don't understand is why some people seem to reject the idea of a slow reduction in house prices (which is what we are seeing) in favour of a dramatic crash - I really think we'd need to see some dramatic turn of events for that to happen