Labour 4Th In Opinion Polls

[mushroom25]

lots of coverage of the recent YouGov survey revealing Labour are now trailing behind the LibDems in 4th place. (deliberately no link - google "labour party in 4th place" and select the link that matches your political leaning).

Calls now for labour to definitively set out its Brexit stance - the parliamentary party are calling for labour to be the party of remain, but the Corbynista policy makers know that to remain will thwart much of their socialist manifesto, which EU law wouldn't allow.

so what now for the party leadership? whatever, they will end up alienating a good part of their electorate whichever way they hop - so which would be the least-worst option for them?

[dannyk13]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place

[naomi24]

They'll probably say they want a re-run of the poll because they don't like the result.

I think Corbyn is probably on his way out.

[jim360]

Probably backing Remain is the least worst. Die-hard Leavers bound to stick to Farage, whereas Remainers determined to destroy democracy* would probably back the party best-placed to defeat the Tories/Brexit Party.

*satire

[jno]

backing Remain might win back some of the voters lost to the Lib Dems, at present the only anti-Brexit party. The trouble is, Corbyn doesn't want to remain, he's a Brexiter, as his (current) opposite number is a Remainer. Brexit has split the voters of both parties as well as the leaders.

[jim360]

It's worth noting that YouGov lately has tended to have Labour lower than the other major polling companies. I don't know why this is exactly -- and of course even those polls that *do* have Labour doing better still have seen their support plummet -- but it's still something to note for context.

A Survation poll on June 20th had Labour at 26%, 3 ahead of the Brexit Party. at about the same time that YouGov (June 19th) had them on 20%, 3 *behind* the Brexit Party. So there's some fluctuation.

The only consistent picture in polls lately is that Labour and the Tories have both lost huge amount of support to the LibDems and BP respectively.

[jim360]

Sorry, that was the Opinium Poll rather than Survation (which also had Labour on 26%, but six points ahead of the Brexit Party rather than three).

[ludwig]

// so which would be the least-worst option for them? //

No-one really knows including them, which is why they're all over the place.

Brexit has not been good for anyone except the Brexit party and the Libdems who are one side of the fence or the other. The two main parties have been split down the middle.

If it hastens the demise of the Corbyn leadership, and an end to Labour's nostalgic dalliance with failed 70's style socialism, so much the better.

[youngmafbog]

Personally I dont set a lot of store by polls but one thing does seem constant for the labour party and that is dwindling numbers. I'm really not sure that being a Remain backing party will be the answer, many of their core supporters are leavers.

Really they have the same problem as the Tories. For both parties I'm sure it will be a relief when we do finally leave. Of course if we dont then both parties are liable for annihilation by lib-nondems and BP.

[ToraToraTora]

"so what now for the party leadership? " - it's perfect as it is, Jezza is the man, I don't want any of you moderates picking on him ok? He's the best asset we Tories have had since TGL herself!

[spathiphyllum]

"I think Corbyn is probably on his way out."

I think the whole party is, personally.

[jourdain2]

Think you're right, Spath. My daughter was red-hot Labour for years - now, at the best, a luke-warm Lib-Dem. but probably a floating voter. She did say to me 'It's a train crash in slow motion, isn't it?' after Corbyn was elected.

[fender62]

i remember john smith r.i.p, i think he would have been a good leader
he seemed neutral, and not militant, i could be wrong, but as for corbyn..he is dragging labour backwards, the strike is solid.

[Gromit]

Er....
The Tories thought they were going to get a 100+ majority in the snap 2017 General election, and instead the Tories ended up losing loads of seats and having to brown nose the dreaded DUP in order to keep in Government.
Corbyn is not finished and Labour are not finished.
If there is an election in the Autumn, the both Labour and the Tories will suffer at the hands of the LibDems and Brexit Party.
But if the next election takes place in a couple of years when all the Brexit stuff is sorted out, then Labour will be ideally place to capitalise on any fallout.