British Hostage - Tactical Error?

[agchristie]

Is the criticism of the Foreign Secretary by Lord Dannatt fair or would it not make any difference whatsoever to ISIL? Was it a mistake to 'show one's hand? Whenever we hear that 'everything possible is being done to get hostages freed', how convincing is this when there seems to be no negotiating channels?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11098980/Foreign-Secretary-criticised-for-showing-our-hand-over-British-hostage.html

[Zacs-Master]

Could be the magicians oldest trick. Misdirection. Or propoganda as it's called in warfare.

[agchristie]

I'm not sure any attempt at bluff would work. How long did it take to find Saddam and Bin Laden?

[Huderon]

No, not a tactical error, just plain speaking.

There are probably negotiating channels available, remember some hostages from other nations have been freed, presumably after the payment of a ransom. However as the UK will not pay ransoms, those channels are not of use.

ISIS/IS/ISIL or whatever they are called this week, seem to want to get the US tangled up in this with boots on the ground. That would give them the opportunity to portray the US (and presumably the UK if we went in as well) intervention as a direct conflict between Islam and the West.

Ultimately to defeat them there will have to be boots on the ground, but some of those boots have to come from Sunni and Shia states as well as Western states, otherwise it will look like a Christian West fighting Islam, even if that version of Islam is a perverse interpretation of the Quran.

[agchristie]

Realistically Zacs, ISIL must be confident with regard to the hostages they are holding. We have seen no credible sign of dialogue or rescue missions.

[237SJ]

Credible signs of dialogue or rescue missions tend not to be publicised.

[Zacs-Master]

Why do you think MI6 or the SAS would let the British public know what point they were at in any sensitive op?

[agchristie]

I wouldn't expect publicity but from what we see happening to one hostage after another ISIL have the upper hand. Agree regarding negotiating channels which must exist but other than discussing ransoms I'm at a loss to see where any progress can be made.

[Zacs-Master]

So, if you agree that we can't even rescue one hostage, how does the much lauded coalition force (600 Aussie troops etc etc) hope to find their leaders?

[agchristie]

Zacs, I didn't say it was impossible to find the hostages but it is a difficult task.

Once the might of the coalition is unleashed we should see ISIL under significant pressure. The real fight has yet to commence.

[Zacs-Master]

I think ISIL have gotten a head start. They don't 'fight' in conventional ways. A conventional war will not help, it will only add fuel to their fire.

"To be victorious in this war of competing narratives and ideas, governments should start by correcting the incomplete, inaccurate information held by the consumers of Islamist ideology."

Have a read:
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2010/10/29/new-strategies-fight-against-terrorism

[agchristie]

Divebuddy, but it is true. We cannot rest on our laurels while the coalition get on with it. I've said before I am no military strategist but I am sure that the planning will be very intense.

[Zacs-Master]

So what did you think of my link?

[agchristie]

Zacs, thanks, interesting. I read it before I replied to divebuddy but I wanted to read it again which I've just done. I see it is an article from 2010 though it remains very relevant. Changing certain narratives is just one of many challenges to prevent radicalisation.

[agchristie]

Divebuddy, the threat posed by ISIL is widespread and the number of nations showing support against this threat speaks volumes. What do you feel our response should be?

Are you saying that Iraq/Afghanistan 'failures' are such that we should not get our hands too dirty this time?

[Zacs-Master]

Glad you 'enjoyed' it. As it's from 4 years ago and the situation is worse now than then (no monster with the word ISIL on it in the cartoon) it kind of proves what a difficult situation it is.

[agchristie]

Zacs, agree. There is much for tacticians to consider.