Brexit Odds

[EDDIE51]

If you lot are so sure we will vote to leave the EU why not put your money where your mouth is?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

[Old_Geezer]

No one is sure of any result. No one wishes to overestimate the collective intelligence of the public.

[Svejk]

Strange, isn't it?

[sandyRoe]

4/9 to stay looks attractive.

[Svejk]

There is a world of difference between knowing what's right and what happens.

[aelmpvw]

i bet some high rollers have placed sizeable bets to stay in

[naomi24]

I have no idea what the outcome will be. There's no accounting for the stupidity of the British public.

[aelmpvw]

can't find the odds for a draw ...

[EDDIE51]

aelmpvw If there was a draw ( exceptionally unlikely as both votes would have to be exactly the same number with 10's of millions of votes) the situation stays unchanged, that is the rule for any referendum not just this one.

[mikey4444]

Naomi... you are right, as always........we may vote to leave !

[DTCwordfan]

I have a tenner on Yes by 65 to 70% - think it was 4 to 1 when I placed it, the slip is at the house....

[viv41]

I am not so sure everyone 'will vote to leave', but I will !!

[Old_Geezer]

The referendum isn't binding anyway. Theoretically there could be a 100% vote for exit and the government still refuse to come out. Wouldn't put it past one prepared to spend public money on supporting the "in" group with a pamphlet under the guise of giving information.

[EDDIE51]

^^ Good point OG and one that not many seem to realise!

[naomi24]

//Wouldn't put it past one prepared to spend public money on supporting the "in" group with a pamphlet under the guise of giving information.//

This argument about the pamphlet is getting sillier by the moment.

[EDDIE51]

It could be 55% leave and 45% stay on a 60% turnout and they still refuse to leave, saying that it was only 55% of 60% = 33% that voted 'leave'
I do not expect a turnout of much more than 60% probably less.

[mikey4444]

^^^^^ Good point Eddie !

[jourdain2]

I've just replied on another thread of yours with the same theme, EDDIE. I pointed out that a lot depends on the weather and what may happen in between, politically. It is very early days and I am not a gambler, but I can't see the EU doing anything to make itself beloved in the next couple of months. On the whole, I'll put a small punt (as I say, I don't gamble so this is exceptional) on Leave. People who want to leave are more passionate and committed. (That's where the weather comes in.)

[EDDIE51]

The odds on 'Leave' are getting better up to 11/4 now, 'remain' at 1/4.

[EDDIE51]

^^ sorry still half asleep , that is the wrong way round. Stay 1/4 Leave 11/4
It changed dramatically after Obama's speech!

[Marshwarble]

High rollers will probably bet on go, or the colour of Cameron's tie or something. Only the low rollers on stay. Low rollers tend to bet on the favourite more.