..........will be made after the party conference season. So far, Johnson has lost every vote in the commons. He must be the first PM in history to hold that wonderful record. In the wake of that, he has also lost 22 MP's from his party, so how can he get a Queens' Speech through the commons when he's kicking MP's out of the Tory party? In my opinion, I think this man is a complete fantacist. He gives me the impression that he thinks some miracle will happen, in spite of the reality that is all around him. Or has he already agreed a secret deal with the EU? The way this man operates and the things he says, he doesn 't seem to have any respect for anything or anyone.
A bit like the remainers have no respect for the result of the referendum then. We voted to leave and there was no mention of if there was or wasn't a deal, it was just stay or leave. MPs saying there was no mandate to leave without a deal, I didn't think there was one for only leave if we get a deal either.
he'll have to do what PR governments have to do, fill the program with things that appeal to all sides. This is an unusual situation for UK because we use FPTP but it's very common in the rest of the world, including most EUSSR countries. He'll offer juicy baubles to the opposition that they'll not want to vote against. Even in the lost votes, Some Labour members voted with the government.
The content of the speech will probably be irrelevant. It seems likely MPs would vote against it.
However that might actually be what Johnson would not regard as disastrous. Potentially that could be taken as a no confidence vote: he could stand down and someone else would have to go to Brussels to ask for an extension to Brexit.
Elections cannot be called until 14 days after a VONC - if that is how it was interpreted.
I’m pretty sure Parliament would agree a new PM to go to Brussels during that time.
Then there’d be a general election.
Johnson has shot himself in the foot by offloading 21 - effectively 24 if you count Brojo, Lee and the unexpelled Spelman. He thought there’d be an election but now he’s stuck with a very minority government and a lot of alienated MPs.
Boris, can refuse to resign for 14 days following the VONC, thus running the clock down. Check mate, whatever happens Boris wins. A valiant attempt by the VBQC but all to no avail.
I don't think they can interpret losing the Queen's Speech as a No Confidence vote, at least in strict terms of the FTPA. In itself that's yet another travesty. I wouldn't be totally surprised if the Queen's Speech is defeated, Johnson calls a No Confidence vote in himself, and then loses that too.
It's paralysis. In some countries, that have even stricter fixed-term sitting, that's more or less normal, but here it's unprecedented.
No I don’t think the Queens Speech would a proper VONC, but Johnson might stand down anyway. If he stays on he has to go to Brussels or send someone.
They don’t get around that.
It’s been argued that the Speaker might not allow the government to call a VONC in itself as plainly it would be a vote whose intention was not what it was stated to be.
I don't think Johnson goes after losing the QS: if he has any sense he *must* see that he's going to lose it already, so, in as much as he has any plan, that loss ought to be a part of it already.
Standing down might be seen as a smart tactical move (he has to start making them at some pint surely)
Gets him out of dying in a ditch and he lives to fight another day in the GE
I think he's realistic enough to know what could be tried when we're in uncharted waters. Hardly his fault that parliament is stuffed with MPs that treat the people's decision with disdain because they believe they know best and will make different decisions despite the people's demand. Hardly his fault that the opposition refuse to put the situation back into public hands via a GE. All he can do, as the opposition are also doing, is scan the legalities to see what can be claimed to support their view of the way forward. Either to Brexit in the case of the government or to ultimately scrapping A50 and delaying continually until a way to do so is found. If you refer to miracles I reckon you are trying to convince yourself all is cut & dried. In reality things can swing quickly in politics. We're still waiting and seeing.
"he’s stuck with a very minority government and a lot of alienated MPs"
I doubt that's much worse a situation than having a small majority which include a bunch of backstabbing MPs who will vote against government, party, and nation. May as well clarify the situation. And clear up the party to boot.