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Is It Inevitable That Ukraine Will Win Eurovision Song Contest?
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I can understand why the sympathy vote might happen but it makes a mockery of the whole contest.
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For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.It’s highly likely that Ukraine will win but not inevitable of course.
People who actually follow the thing all the way through and actually listen to the songs may decide to be swayed by another song that really takes their fancy.
And then there are the jury votes which come first: who will give Ukraine a good mark because it’s a good song (which it is: it was one of the favourites before Feb 24)? And who will vote for it to make a point?
That’s why it’s so interesting
People who actually follow the thing all the way through and actually listen to the songs may decide to be swayed by another song that really takes their fancy.
And then there are the jury votes which come first: who will give Ukraine a good mark because it’s a good song (which it is: it was one of the favourites before Feb 24)? And who will vote for it to make a point?
That’s why it’s so interesting
'Political voting' is largely a myth that was invented by Terry Wogan. He correctly observed that, for example Greece nearly always gives plenty of points to Cyprus and vice versa. However he failed to take into account the fact that they have a common language, common cultures and common music distribution systems. It's only natural that music which is popular in one of those countries is popular in the other one too, regardless of any 'politics'.
If Wogan's theory had any real credibility to it, Ireland (which has won the competition more times than any other country) would never have had a chance in the competition as, apart from the UK, it has no obvious 'political allies'.
Ukraine will undoubtedly do well this year, as many individual voters might give it 'sympathy votes' but the jury votes, which are just as important, are likely to be more independent. Italy, the UK, Lithuania and Moldova all have strong entries, that might result in a surprise win. (The bookies seem to want to add Sweden and Spain to my list too).
If Wogan's theory had any real credibility to it, Ireland (which has won the competition more times than any other country) would never have had a chance in the competition as, apart from the UK, it has no obvious 'political allies'.
Ukraine will undoubtedly do well this year, as many individual voters might give it 'sympathy votes' but the jury votes, which are just as important, are likely to be more independent. Italy, the UK, Lithuania and Moldova all have strong entries, that might result in a surprise win. (The bookies seem to want to add Sweden and Spain to my list too).
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