'Political voting' is largely a myth that was invented by Terry Wogan. He correctly observed that, for example Greece nearly always gives plenty of points to Cyprus and vice versa. However he failed to take into account the fact that they have a common language, common cultures and common music distribution systems. It's only natural that music which is popular in one of those countries is popular in the other one too, regardless of any 'politics'.
If Wogan's theory had any real credibility to it, Ireland (which has won the competition more times than any other country) would never have had a chance in the competition as, apart from the UK, it has no obvious 'political allies'.
Ukraine will undoubtedly do well this year, as many individual voters might give it 'sympathy votes' but the jury votes, which are just as important, are likely to be more independent. Italy, the UK, Lithuania and Moldova all have strong entries, that might result in a surprise win. (The bookies seem to want to add Sweden and Spain to my list too).