Is There Another Bye Bye Election On The Way.

[gulliver1]

Rishi Sunak faces another Bye election as Scott Benton MP for Blackpool South is suspended from the Commons .He told an undercover reporter that he was willing to break lobbying rules for money  (I always thought this was the norm for Tory MPs.)

[newmodarmy]

Good riddance if there is a recall petition that gets the required 10000 signatures.  But whether there's a by election or not won't make any difference as the Cons will still have  a big enough majority, and what will matter in the longer term is who wins seats in the general election in late 2024 not in Spring

[THECORBYLOON]

NMA, 10% of registered voters need to sign the recall petition. 

In the 2019 general election there were 57,690 registered voters so it will need much fewer than 10,000 signatures for there to be a by-election.

[Peter Pedant]

the electors cd trigger one, to show how possed off they are.

[ichkeria]

"the Cons will still have  a big enough majority"

Probably not in Blackpool South, where the Conservaitves took the seat from Labour last time with a majority of under 4,000.

As for the majority in the Commons, currently standing to all intents and purposes at 54, well, that may or may not be enough to ensure they still have a majority in a few months time, but I'd not be putting our house on it.

[ichkeria]

53: I'd forgotten about the Speaker. As if anyone could ...

[gulliver1]

There have been more By elections under the present Tory Govt than ever before .  Anyone know why ??

[THECORBYLOON]

ICHKERIA your figure of fifty-four is correct, according to this link.

https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/MPs?order_by=name_ascent

[gulliver1]

It seems like most of these By elections were held because of  Tory Mps committing Sexual misconduct , watching porn ,not declaring second incomes or breaking lobbying laws.

[Peter Pedant]

it seems to me as well Gullz

BUT danczuk was labour and a nardy bye ( sent suggestive emails to a young constituent) - Profumo wasnt even an MP  (oops yes he was) Do you remember the MP who styled himself "Lord" ( oh  lardy lardy !) which meant he cdnt sit in the commons, so he wasnt 'a real lord'. - simple question: have you been consorting with prostitutes? and the  answer was 'yes'

Lloyd George was known as 'the old goat'

[ichkeria]

"ICHKERIA your figure of fifty-four is correct..."

I was going by this

https://members.parliament.uk/parties/commons (not sure which is more current)

and, not noticing that it spelled it out at the top (!) worked it out for myself as 54 to start with, but I had failed to take account of the deputy speakers so I arrived at 54 if correct by accident.

[Peter Pedant]

 more by-elections....

well recall for a start

BUT pre and post recall - I wd suggest that both follow a pattern of a Poisson distribtuion - with difft lambdas. Some one must have looked (*)

(*) totally opaque but a few university grads on AB will recognise this and may actually know the answer

[gulliver1]

Quite a few of these by elections were caused by sexual misconduct i/e by male MPs against other males and in one case against young boys ..Maybe because most of these Tory MPs attended boys only public schools .

[Peter Pedant]

o god dont look into that closet, Gullz

you may be surprised at who comes out

[Gromit]

At the end of 2019 the Conservatives had a very healthy majority of 80.

Has such a huge mandate ever been squandered like that one. They had the votes to achieve so much, and don't have much to show for it. In short, they have been a shambles.

[newmodarmy]

Thanks thecorbeyloon- yes I knew there was a 10 in there somewhere- so it's 10% not 10000. I'm sure social media will ensure the threshold is met, even if it means getting all your family and friends/community to sign (or one signs on their behalf)

[newmodarmy]

"the Cons will still have a big enough majority"

Sorry, I shouldn't have assumed it was obvious I was talking about in the House of Commons and not about this seat which they will defintely lose in a by election.

I'm not sure Rishi will lose any more sleep over whether his majority between now and the GE is 54 or 50, but he will want some signs that things are picking up for the Tories as the GE nears (but I think he'll be disappointed)

[gulliver1]

Peter 12.58 Best answer🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣  Wouldn't surprise me if Boris had been in there...lol