News1 min ago
How Could The Bookies Have Got It So Wrong?
26 Answers
If the opinions of ABers on the subject of Britex is a true reflection of the country as a whole the bookies are in for a drubbing. You can get odds of 7/2 (£2 would win you £7) on an out majority.
They're usually pretty good at predicting political events. Why are they going wrong here?
They're usually pretty good at predicting political events. Why are they going wrong here?
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According to a recent poll, the outers are on the up.
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Sandy....the opinion of people here on AB is hardly typical of the country as a whole. Right-wingers out number lefties like me by a large percentage, and that is not reflected nationwide, when it comes to the ballot box.
Of course, I will get my usual stick for saying this, so its no surprise that more lefties don't pop their heads above the parapet often enough.
Of course, I will get my usual stick for saying this, so its no surprise that more lefties don't pop their heads above the parapet often enough.
The odds compilers will be keeping a very close eye on the mood of the nation, sandy, and will alter the odds accordingly. Sometimes it is he who shouts loudest who gains the most attention and perhaps the 'outies' have been shouting bit louder than the 'inies' this last week or so. I've just consulted 'Oddschecker' and the best price i see for a brexit is 11/4, so that price has shortened a tad lately, whilst a remain vote is @ 1/3. According to the bookies, the most likely outcome would be a remain vote with a majority of 55% - 60% which is available in places @ 9/4.
But, as has already been said, the opinions of ABers certainly do not reflect society as a whole, so i wouldn't be rushing to the betting shop with my £2 just yet, if i were you:-)
But, as has already been said, the opinions of ABers certainly do not reflect society as a whole, so i wouldn't be rushing to the betting shop with my £2 just yet, if i were you:-)
damn I misread that as 7-2 on an in majority and I had emptied my piggy bank and put om ,,y cloth cap .....
certain logical fallacies there Sandy - the referendum outcome is a future fact - we havent had it yet so the question becomes why are the odds at Bob Done so different from the usual diet we are subjected to on a daily basis here ? Good question
I guess the answer is the same reason that in the 1948 Truman election, one newspaper led with 'Dewey by a landslide' - if you recall the landslide poll was done by telephone and those without phones turned out and voted Truman. That is there was selection by telephone
The vocal brexiters on AB mixed in with the usual cryptoNazis and pegida supporters are a self selected group, with the right of free speech I hasten to add.
I do a Brexit count on new news threads each day now
it is running at 5/6. None of the arguments are new. I am doing a lot of knitting nowadays
Bif thing amongst pollsters - if you ask random people in the city of london you will get a lot of city slickers so should you in a poll fill quotas ( " quota filling" ) to get the correct proportion of blue collar workers, street sweeepers and so on? Clearly quota filling is selection on criteria and not random ( so the stats may be invalid )
certain logical fallacies there Sandy - the referendum outcome is a future fact - we havent had it yet so the question becomes why are the odds at Bob Done so different from the usual diet we are subjected to on a daily basis here ? Good question
I guess the answer is the same reason that in the 1948 Truman election, one newspaper led with 'Dewey by a landslide' - if you recall the landslide poll was done by telephone and those without phones turned out and voted Truman. That is there was selection by telephone
The vocal brexiters on AB mixed in with the usual cryptoNazis and pegida supporters are a self selected group, with the right of free speech I hasten to add.
I do a Brexit count on new news threads each day now
it is running at 5/6. None of the arguments are new. I am doing a lot of knitting nowadays
Bif thing amongst pollsters - if you ask random people in the city of london you will get a lot of city slickers so should you in a poll fill quotas ( " quota filling" ) to get the correct proportion of blue collar workers, street sweeepers and so on? Clearly quota filling is selection on criteria and not random ( so the stats may be invalid )
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