Ban on Iranian Oil imports

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.independen...-imports-6293349.html

Is this a wise move or are we shooting ourselves in the foot?

/// In advance of the decision, negotiators worked hard to try to ensure that the embargo would punish only Iran — and not EU member Greece, which is in dire financial trouble and relies heavily on low-priced Iranian oil. ///

Do we not also rely heavily on low-priced Iranian oil, and will this not put up the price of our fuel?

/// They agreed in principle to make up the costs Greece incurs as a result of the embargo. ///

That is big of them, will that further increase our costs also?

[Gromit]

// Is this a wise move or are we shooting ourselves in the foot? //

It is a wise move. It is a non violent stick attack on the Iranian economy designed to get them back to the negotiating table. If they ignore it and and build weapons, more forceful action may need to be taken. Hence the armada gathering in the GUlf of British US and French warships. They have a choice.

http://www.telegraph....Strait-of-Hormuz.html

[eastern]

Theres one thing for sure its a powder keg waiting to go off. If you fly down the Persian Gulf the amount of tankers entering and leaving is staggering, so this would affect nearly every single oil producer in the region including Saudi Arabia the biggest in the area. One of the problems in Iran seems to be that the Republican Guard are basically running the country which is what is worrying the West. Most of their technology and weaponry comes from our friends the Chinese and Russians the former being only to happy to take as much oil as they can produce. Only problem is it will push up the price of oil massively.

[Gromit]

But not just Russian and Chinese arms.

// Despite the political pressure and sanctions, a probe by customs officers suggests that at least seven British arms dealers have been supplying the Iranian air force, its elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the country's controversial nuclear ambitions. A UK businessman was caught smuggling components for use in guided missiles through a front company that proved to be the Iranian Ministry of Defence. Another case involves a group that included several Britons which, investigators alleged, attempted to export components intended to enhance the performance of Iranian aircraft. Other examples involve a British millionaire arms dealer caught trading machine-guns used by the SAS and capable of firing 800 rounds a minute with a Tehran-based weapons supplier. //

[DTCwordfan]

The Uk does not handle a huge amount of Iranian oil - it is very heavy.....

The price of fuel will go up for all countries - this is a global market and not a UK one, or a Greek one, or an EEC one.

If the powder keg goes off, you will see $200+ a barrel......20% of the world oil passes through the Hormuz - Iran 4mbd, Iraq 2.5, Abu Dhabi, 2.5, Qatar, 1, Saudi 6, Dubai/Oman, 2 Kuwait 2

[eastern]

I nearly missed a programme on some obscure digital channel about the Pakistani business man who, through Dubai, passed the plans for a nuclear warhead to Libya and Tehran. It was a basic Chinese design but it was a warhead never the less. Everyone knows what they are up to thats why their scientists keep mysteriously dying. Thing is if it does kick off in Iran it really will be big trouble, they lost millions (people) in the Iran/Iraq war and would do it again.

[rov1100]

As China is reported to get 60% of its oil from Iran you can imagine the consequences of not getting its usual supply.

They will try to get their oil from other sources which will cause a shortage for the rest of the world. A shortage of course means higher prices.

[Gromit]

A bit of perspective.

World oil production is 87.5million barrels a day.

Iran produces 4.1million barrels.

[TTG]

Have the UK pump prices gone up yet?

[DTCwordfan]

and Gromit - traded oil on the open is market is roughly some 25mbd - which then turns over roughly 3 times per day before it reaches its final destination - and 20mbd of term and traded oil passes through the Straits......

Not a pleasant prospect but then Iran can't risk the loss of revenue......it could, just could, tip the current regime if they get ancy and try and get cut out.

[EDDIE51]

Iran will retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, thus pushing up the price of oil by 1000% all Mid East Oil has to come through the Strait Of Hormuz, the Iranians will mine it ( Guess who sold them the mines ?) and the US 6th Fleet will have to protect shipping, but they can not be 100% successful, be ready for mined oil tankers and petrol at £5 a litre and more. No North sea oil left now !
I give the Euro a month before it fails and takes the entire euro zone with it. Only Germany is strong enough to survive alone, even France can not survive the closure of the Stright of Hormuze.

[DTCwordfan]

Not all oil (or gas - LNG), Eddie - some (a good chunk of Saudi) can or does comes out to the Red Sea and also to the Med. But it will have a major impact

http://www.theodora.c...ts_pipelines_map.html

[EDDIE51]

I have worked in Saudi and was there when the Red Sea pipe line was being installed. It can handle less than 25% of the Saudi production. I was working in Dhahran and R'as Tanura when RT was exporting 12 Million barrels a day !just from the deep sea terminal .Saudi can go to 25 million barrels a day just from the 1998 installed capacity, just needs the export capacity to do it.

[DTCwordfan]

Given the politics out there, I am surprised that they have never ran a ollection line along the Saudi coast picking up Qatar, Abu Dhabi crude and out to the Omani southern coast line....

[Gromit]

We are Partly responsible for Iran thinking it is a goal to acquire Nuclear Weapons. We made little fuss when

India
Pakistan
South Africa
And Israel

Developed and acquired Nuclear Weapons. Perhaps if we were consistent and not so hypocritical, then rogue nations might not be so encouraged.

[EDDIE51]

Did you know that 85 % of the entire worlds known oil reserves are in Saudi Arabia ? A know fact but one which is often down played .

[eastern]

If you look at a map of Saudi Arabia that is the Middle East oil field, it covers the whole country, Kuwait,Iraq,Bahrain,UAE,Iran,Qatar and a bit of Oman are all on the fringes but it does only account for 56% of world reserves. Mr Ahmed Ahmadinnersready wants to be the man who Nukes Israel, bit simplistic but true. You can't describe how hated the Israelies are by the Arab countries.

[EDDIE51]

Baharain has no oil left it ran out in the 1960s I have been there 13 times and worked for the Bahraini national oil company (BADNOC) , who now just help with other Mid east exports. Qatar has very little oil just enough for domestic use . Dubai has used almost all it's oil up that is why it is developing a tourist industry. Oman has no oil in commercial quantity ,Kuwait has significant reserves but the huge bulk is in Saudi . I should have said 85% of the known recoverable oil reserves are in Saudi .

[Gromit]

Eddie51

Kuwait produce 2.5millions of barrels a day
Qatar produce 1.2millions of barrels a day
UAE produce 2.7millions of barrels a day

Not as much as Saudi Arabi 's 8.5millions a day, but still good quantities.

[EDDIE51]

Yes, but a lot of the oil in those places is used for domestic consumption, and they with the exception of Kuwait are running at max capacity. Saudi is barely ticking over at 8.5 MBD it can go to over 3 times that just on present installed capacity.

[d9f1c7]

Eddie, you are correct about the SofH but Iran will never be allowed to close the strait. They won't get a chance to lay mines. US/EU warships will never allow it.