Ukip Set For 128 Seats In Westminster!

[agchristie]

According to one poll...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-ukip-support-following-clacton-4423313

[sandyRoe]

One swallow doesn't make a summer.

[DaisyNonna]

If you vote for UKIP are you voting for an extra hour of sleep?

[EDDIE51]

What few seem to have noticed is that the Clacton UKIP MP was previously the conservative MP for the same area and he was very popular. He has used his personal following to get himself elected . He spent a lot of time asking his constituents if they would still support him if he defected to UKIP. An 'outsider' coming in as a UKIP candidate and standing against a popular incumbent would do very much worse.
The '128' seats poll does not take that factor into account.

[sandyRoe]

And in Tory seats a powerful argument will be, 'If you vote UKIP you'll split the vote and let in Labour'.
You do see 'protest votes' at By Elections but at a General Election people fall back into line.

[BlackadderV]

Quite, Eddie, but there is a sea change in politics. It's not just traditional Tories, but also traditional Labour voters who are supporting UKIP. Next year's election will be very interesting, and I , for one, cannot predict the outcome.

[ladybirder]

EDDIE you've saved me from writing out what you've just said. I agree. It's blindingly obvious they are not comparing like with like.

[agchristie]

Eddie, you say 'outsider' but many voters will just see Farage and that is a different ball game.

[Gromit]

// Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.

Currently, other parties have 32 seats. So they seem to think the others will more than double. The only way that could happen would be for Labour to lose 40 seats in Scotland and Wales to the nationalist Parties, which seems extremely unlikely.
Once that figure doesn't compute, then the rest of the prediction falls apart.

[sandyRoe]

Roy Jenkins would never have been seen drinking a pint. A nice bottle of claret, now...

[BlackadderV]

Nigel Farage and cronies may be an amusing bunch, but UKIP is a joke. It's another SDP.

Roy Jenkins would never have been seen drinking a pint. A nice bottle of claret, now...

Therein lies the difference. Wake up and smell the the best bitter!

[Gromit]

Methyl,
Diane James is very capable and media friendly. She was the xandidate who narrowly lost at Eastleigh and will probably be one of their handful of future MPs.

[sandyRoe]

Methyl, I know a couple who took time off work to travel from Belfast to act as unpaid campaigners at a by-election the SDP were contesting. It might have been a Glasgow constituency, can't remember.

[BlackadderV]

Probably Jenkins, who won Glasgow Hillheads.

[Canary42]

Extrapolating single byelection results to a General Election is unreliable.

I don't think we will see much of the UnKind to Islam Party next May.

[sandyRoe]

Who was the TV presenter with the very orange tan who went into politics? Whatever became of him?