Labour 12 Point Lead, Ukip At Its Most Popular Ever...

[Gromit]

... Is now the time for the Conservatives to ditch Cameron?

// Labour has forged a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

Ed Miliband's party now stands at 41% of the vote, up three points on ICM's January figure, and the Tories are on just 29%, having slipped back four from 33% last month. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have sunk two points, to 13%, whereas Ukip has inched up three to 9% – setting a new record for Nigel Farage's anti-European outfit in the Guardian/ICM series.

The Labour lead is the biggest – and the Conservative vote-share the smallest – in the polling series since May 2003, during the brief political bounce for Tony Blair which came between the felling of Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad and first stirrings of civil war in Iraq and arguments about dodgy dossiers.

With his party plumbing the sort of depths associated with the second half of the John Major era, David Cameron will be particularly dismayed about the continuing surge in Ukip support. //

[bibblebub]

the reason I mentioned Cameron was that he used that by talking about "knifing a foreign sectretary" in PMQs a couple of years ago (at 2:40 in that video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMdsOqGASRE

[venator]

Gromit, old chap, for once I agree with you! Your analysis is bang on!

[humbersloop]

If anything costs Cameron his leadership this side of an election, I think it'll be a failure to manage his own party, especially in parliamant, rather than labour's poll showings.

He does seem to have a casual knack for winding them up (see the gay marriage debate's effects) which may well get to a point where they do demand a sacrifice. In that case, unless gideon starts playing a blinder sharpish, I think Osborne's the more likely candidate to get dumped - at the moment

[venator]

For those who don't enjoy the Yah-Boo show, the quote is at 2:47 on that exciting clip.

Bibble - the only granniy I can recall running a country was Golda Meir. If she was around these days, I'd vote for her.

(puts on tin hat and waits for the bricks to come flying)

[naomi24]

Wasn't Mrs T a granny?

[venator]

Gosh! i'm agreeing with everyone, Humbersloop - Osborne is the man in the hot eat. I reckon Chris Grayling could do well next time.

[venator]

I think she was, Naomi, but mentioning her on Gromit's post feels a bit sacriligeous...

[ichkeria]

Worse for the Tories perhaps than the poll rating is pondering the question 'Who on earth could they choose to replace him?'
Their only hope is either to ditch Osborne or an upturn in the economy
9% may be a record for UKIP but is still pitiful. Might be enough to lose them a few seats though come the day.

[humbersloop]

I'd agree ich, they're not exactly awash with talent at the moment - I'd guess bojo bides his time

[naomi24]

If he is replaced - and I hope he isn't - whoever takes up the reins will still have that millstone Clegg hanging round his neck.

[emmie]

perhaps Cameron did use it, but there does seem enough evidence to support what he said. Besides which i don't care for either Miliband, nor much for Cameron, as to Clegg could we have a more hopeless politician,

[emmie]

the one thing about the British electorate is that they are incredibly fickle, they want instantaneous results and if it doesn't come, it's off with his head.

[Quizmonster]

Might I ask yet again, Em - on behalf of myself and others here who share my view that there was no 'stabbing' - WHAT evidence?

[youngmafbog]

QM, I would suggest it is just that your view, other's view. None of us know what actually went on behind closed doors, it could easily have been a stabbing and just as equally a brotherly contest.

As for Cameron going, he consistently goes out of his way to wind the Party up. He is not a true Tory he is Blair in disguise. I would suggest this poll has more to do with the hatred of the Gay Marriage rather than Europe though. Plus it is a Guardian poll so I would not expect anything else.

As for candidates, I'm sure you would find Boris in the wings. Like him or not he does seem to carry public weight - at the minute.

[jake-the-peg]

Normally I'd agree that back benchers will do whatever they need to to keep their seats and if that means ditching a PM so be it.

However this time is different.

Any new leader would inherit the coalition agreement.

If he ditched it he'd probably be unable to get his policies through as without the LibDems he wouldn't have a majority, he'd appear weak and ineffective and lose the election.

If he continued with the coalition agreement he'd appear more of the same.

It's not an attractive prospect for a challenger - far better to play a longer game, let Cameron lose and then challenge.

With Lib Dems voters deserting to Labour and UKIP splitting the Tories it's going to take a miracle of unimaginable magnitude for Cameron to get reelected.

The only question is who's going to challenge after the election - are we going to see Boris trying to stand as an MP?

The general election is before the next mayoral one so presumably he'd have to stand down.

Watch that space

[sandyRoe]

Has the stalking horse, Adam Afriyie, been heard of recently? Or is he languishing in lasagnas somewhere?

[ichkeria]

I'd respectfully suggest that the gay marriage issue has had little or no effect other than to turn the electorate off the Tories even more because of their disunity. I wonder if Cameron sometimes wishes he could ditch a large number of his MPs, never mind the reverse :-)

[Quizmonster]

YMB, I'm perfectly happy to accept your comment above that people's views may differ, but if one person says, "There does seem enough evidence..." I think it's perfectly fair to ask, "What evidence?" Don't you?

[pdq1]

Didn't UKIP come into existance with disaffected Tories and really hold the right wing of Tory policies. If they continue to go their separate ways neither can really benefit. Cameron has gone more left wing since he came to power making the gulf even wider. Maybe he should step down and allow a facilliator to merge the two sections and maybe they would stand a chance at the next election.

[sandyRoe]

Would an alliance of the Left of the Tories and the Right of Labour be totally out of the question?