Boris Says Rise Of Ukip Good For Tories - Is He Right?

[Gromit]

//  Well, I would humbly submit that there are better ways of tackling the Ukip problem, if indeed it is really a problem at all. The rise of Farage and Ukip tells us some interesting and important things about what the electorate wants – and it is by no means bad news for the Conservatives. It tells us that the voters are fed up with over-regulation of all kinds, and especially from Brussels. Well, who is going to offer a referendum on the EU? Only the Conservatives – and the trouble with voting Ukip is that it is likely to produce the exact opposite: another Labour government and another five years of spineless and unexamined servitude to the EU.

Rather than bashing Ukip, I reckon Tories should be comforted by their rise – because the real story is surely that these voters are not turning to the one party that is meant to be providing the official opposition. The rise of Ukip confirms a) that a Tory approach is broadly popular and b) that in the middle of a parliament, after long years of recession, and with growth more or less flat, the Labour Party is going precisely nowhere. //

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10024202/Keep-calm-everyone-now-is-notthe-time-to-do-a-Nicolas-Cage.html

[andrew1707]

Very right

[youngmafbog]

He has a point. Many UKIP policies are 'real' Tory policies not liberal washed down ones.

And the rise of UKIP, at the expense of all parties, shows what the electorate is really concerned about.

However it will only be good for the Tories if they take notice and I can't see spineless DC actually doing that.

[jake-the-peg]

Well it's good news for a certain type of Tory

But that's the problem the conservatives have at the moment - they're not a united party, they're all pulling in opposite directions especially on Europe

[LazyGun]

It is a good attempt by BoJo to put a positive spin on the issue, and has some truth, in that Euroscepticism and anti-immigration views have hardened in a period of economic stagnation.He must also be welcoming any opportunity to get some column inches having been upstaged recently by his younger brother JoJo.....

Does not alter the practical implications for the tories though for the upcoming local elections. With UKip contesting so many seats, there will be an inevitable drain of votes from the tories to UKip which could well be a cause for large losses of seats. It appears that UKip have become the repository of the protest vote right now, and local elections are often seen as a vehicle to register voter discontent, so UKip may well pick up votes from Labour too - votes that might in earlier days gone to LibDem - but the candidates likely to suffer most will be the tories.

[anotheoldgit]

Well it is a certainty that I won't be voting Labour, my Council has recently changed from being Conservative, to Labour run.

In the short time it has been under Labour we have seen the once frozen Council Tax increased and several services cut.

[humbersloop]

you have to love Ken Clarke though

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/28/tory-response-ukip-local-elections

[ToraToraTora]

Bojo is spot on, the public are rapidly losing patience with the EU ideal. Jake is also correct the Tories are split down the middle. The Party needs to decide which way to go. They should consider getting UKIP on board and let the liberal/pro EU side join the libdems. This would give the country a proper choice.

[FredPuli43]

Curiously "Lord Ashcroft's polls" cited on Sky's Press Preview, indicated that those who would vote for UKIP generally regarded the Conservative party as being to their right. That doesn't seem to be logical, if true, since UKIP seems more akin to the more 'right' Conservatives. But, as Boris suggests, it should be easier for the Tories to lure those voters than for Labour.

UKIP's other problem is that they have a lot of public support but that support is spread across the country and not concentrated enough to win particular seats. Local elections shouldn't worry anybody. They get small turn outs, a lot of the voting is on local issues, and a fair amount is protest voting by people who will 'return to the fold' come a general election.

[ichkeria]

UKIP are a joke, frankly. They are benefitting from the fact that there's not one, but two parties in government at the moment to have a go at, and their policy of xenophobia towards the outside world is a very attractive one to people who believe the "outside world" is squeezing them out in hard times.

The fact is though that their appeal is very narrow - (you've only got to listen to Nigel Farage on Question Time, seemingly promoting his party as the "Real Tories", and their policies, for example on tax, are a shambles. That doesn't matter at the moment because even some people who aren't part of their natural constituency aren't really listening to what they say. It might start to matter soon though. It's good news of course for people on the right of the Tory party because they are likely to pull the Tory party rightwards, temporarily at least. We already see this happening on Europe for example.

[jake-the-peg]

The UKIP factor though is only one problem facing Cameron's chances of re-election.

There is huge dissatisfaction with the LibDems and those voters are going to be predominantly left leaning and will be expressing that dissatisfaction by voting Labour next time around.

Cameron needs to keep those Liberal Democrats voting for the Lib Dems and not Labour

[Gromit]

UKiP are fielding 1,732 candidates next week and they aim to get 40-50 seats. IF that happens, it will be interesting to see who they take them from. And whether Boris will be singing the same tune then.

Local elections are usually just a side show, but the UKiP factor makes this one more interesting. And could decide the Conservatives future direction and even leader.

[jno]

local elections tend to be a bit like by-elections, a place to cast protest votes. This seldom carries over into general elections. The LibDems have been getting protest votes for years, they got enough last time to put them into office - but not into power; they've just become scapegoats and poodles. It's conceivable that Ukip could do the same next time - well enough to make them potential coalition partners for the Tories (Labour won't touch them unless they've gone completely mad). I don't see this happening for a moment, but heaven help everyone if it did. If you think the current coalition is a mistake...

[ichkeria]

I loved the comment in the Times Leader about UKIP's manifesto: "like the steam of consciousness of a man who has stepped off the last green and into the nineteenth hole."
The name "Dennis Thatcher" wasn't explicitly mentioned but I could see his ghost :-)

[Kevink]

I suspect that UKIP could do more good for the Tories than is obvious at first glance. UKIP have attracted voters from all the main parties as protest votes.

Most people are agreed that protest voters return to the main parties when it comes to a General Election.

But I wonder if many of those who have been attracted away from Labour and LibDem, will perhaps turn to the Tories as a closer alternative to UKIP, rather than back to the parties they originally supported - especially in the light of DC's promise to hold a referendum on national suicide.

[mikey4444]

There is precious little comfort for the Tories to cling to where UKIP are concerned. They may be as mad as a box of frogs, and most probably are closet racists but UKIP will take more votes from the Tories than Labour, and that is what is causing Cameron so much loss of sleep.

Well, that and the fact the the media jumps on anything Boris says with gay abandon at the moment. Be scared Dave, very scared.

[Gromit]

All except one of the 27 County Councils that are holding elections on Thursday is Conservative. So they have everything to lose in these elections.

[modeller]

None of our political masters will break the links with Europe which will give us a free trade area without the dictatorship of Brussels. Cameron's referendum after he is re-elected will be a farce because whatever he asks for , even if he means it , will be rejected by the other members. He will then say " Sorry but I did my best ! " and will then be in power for another 5 years. However Labour won't even give us a referendum.
So we will be stuck with another gutless coalition. Taking orders from Brussels.
I wonder what would happen if UKIP held the balance of power , that just might force the others to act rather than just talk.

[jim360]

I read it differently but that's because I'm too much of a Europhile probably. UKIP is a reaction that won't last, because if ever they had a chance to gain more than just a loud voice I'd put good money on their being beaten down, or at least held back for a bit. UKIP, the Green Party and, dare I say it, even the Lib Dems aren't really ready to hold High Office.

[modeller]

jim What do you mean by 'even' //even the Lib Dems aren't really ready to hold High Office. //
They are no more credible than the 'Greens' .

[modeller]

jim When you describe yourself as a E