Society & Culture30 mins ago
The Wisdom Of Crowds?
147 Answers
Was interested to see the following article in The Independent:
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It seems that the British public actually tends to believe grossly inaccurate things about their society compared to the evidence available. These findings are supported by an earlier survey commissioned by the TUC and carried out by Ipsos-Mori:
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//On average people think that 41% of the entire welfare budget goes on benefits to unemployed people, while the true figure is three per cent.
On average people think that 27% of the welfare budget is claimed fraudulently, while the government's own figure is 0.7%.
On average people think that almost half the people (48%) who claim Jobseeker's Allowance go on to claim it for more than a year, while the true figure is 27.8%.
On average people think that an unemployed couple with two school-age children would get £147 in Jobseeker's Allowance - more than 30% higher than the £111.45 they would actually receive - a £35 over-calculation.
Only 21% of people think that this family with two school-age children would be better off if one of the unemployed parents got a 30 hour a week minimum wage job, even though they would actually end up £138 a week better off. Even those who thought they would be better off only thought on average they would gain by £59.//
Do ABers believe this evidence, or should we continue to place more trust in the 'man on the street' than on evidence deriving from research?
http://
It seems that the British public actually tends to believe grossly inaccurate things about their society compared to the evidence available. These findings are supported by an earlier survey commissioned by the TUC and carried out by Ipsos-Mori:
http://
//On average people think that 41% of the entire welfare budget goes on benefits to unemployed people, while the true figure is three per cent.
On average people think that 27% of the welfare budget is claimed fraudulently, while the government's own figure is 0.7%.
On average people think that almost half the people (48%) who claim Jobseeker's Allowance go on to claim it for more than a year, while the true figure is 27.8%.
On average people think that an unemployed couple with two school-age children would get £147 in Jobseeker's Allowance - more than 30% higher than the £111.45 they would actually receive - a £35 over-calculation.
Only 21% of people think that this family with two school-age children would be better off if one of the unemployed parents got a 30 hour a week minimum wage job, even though they would actually end up £138 a week better off. Even those who thought they would be better off only thought on average they would gain by £59.//
Do ABers believe this evidence, or should we continue to place more trust in the 'man on the street' than on evidence deriving from research?
Answers
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"How to Lie with Statistics" is a book worth reading. Not that the ONS does that.
A favourite 'weasel' deception of the tabloids is to scream that X has doubled or is "at record levels" or is "up 300 per cent" when X is one in a million and was 1 last year, and usually 1 , and is now 2 or 3 or even (horror) 4 . That next year , it goes back to 1 or less and is ignored, unless that fits the paper's agenda when it becomes "X down by (whatever term they prefer)". We are susceptible to this thinking.
"In politics, perception is everything". I used to notice that juries at Snaresbrook Crown Court (East London, Dagenham, Romford etc) would acquit in happy times but convict in recessions on the same sort of cases , particularly theft from employers. Their gut feeling about theft, what was 'dishonest', varied. They were generous to the point of stupidity in happy times and cynical in hard times. In hard times, those juries would have voted for harsher and more strictly enforced laws. In good times, they wouldn't have. And in all cases they would be relying on "evidence".
A favourite 'weasel' deception of the tabloids is to scream that X has doubled or is "at record levels" or is "up 300 per cent" when X is one in a million and was 1 last year, and usually 1 , and is now 2 or 3 or even (horror) 4 . That next year , it goes back to 1 or less and is ignored, unless that fits the paper's agenda when it becomes "X down by (whatever term they prefer)". We are susceptible to this thinking.
"In politics, perception is everything". I used to notice that juries at Snaresbrook Crown Court (East London, Dagenham, Romford etc) would acquit in happy times but convict in recessions on the same sort of cases , particularly theft from employers. Their gut feeling about theft, what was 'dishonest', varied. They were generous to the point of stupidity in happy times and cynical in hard times. In hard times, those juries would have voted for harsher and more strictly enforced laws. In good times, they wouldn't have. And in all cases they would be relying on "evidence".
Actually wikipedia is fairly reliable, and it's a misconception that it is not. To be sure, anyone can edit it. But edits that are sabotages, or wrong, or fraudulent, are usually corrected very quickly. For most of the pages on educational matters you are unlikely to find a better free source than wikipedia.
// many inexperienced riders are coming a cropper sadly. //
True. But far more pedestrians are killed. You are safer cycling than walking.
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True. But far more pedestrians are killed. You are safer cycling than walking.
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Here you go, Em, a perfect example of what you asked me to produce. I thought I’d do that, even though I asked you first!
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See my answer in that thread timed at 1537 last Wednesday, which reads: “Many young people nowadays haven't a hope in hell of getting onto the property ladder.”
Now go to Youngmafbog’s answer timed at 1555, less than 20 minutes later, which reads: “A big reason that youngsters find it hard to get a council property is immigrants taking priority.”
Now, as I’m sure you know, council/social housing is allocated on a points basis. This involves a consideration of the quality of the applicant’s current housing, their medical condition and a raft of other details.
I do not know of a single local authority which allocates points or priority to someone solely for BEING an immigrant, do you?
This idea has long been shown to be nonsense. For example, click below…
http://
The above link is from 2009, but it IS from The Telegraph, so you and YMB of all people would normally see it as gospel. Not only that, but if his claim that immigrants DO get priority for social housing is true now, in 2013, then that must be since the Tories and their sidekicks came to power!
The plain truth is that this claim has been around for many years and it is just as much a myth now as it was in the past. It’s just as silly as, “They took our jobs!”
So…over to you for the link that supports YOUR point about left wingers believing everything is hunky-dory in Britain. My breath is bated!
http://
See my answer in that thread timed at 1537 last Wednesday, which reads: “Many young people nowadays haven't a hope in hell of getting onto the property ladder.”
Now go to Youngmafbog’s answer timed at 1555, less than 20 minutes later, which reads: “A big reason that youngsters find it hard to get a council property is immigrants taking priority.”
Now, as I’m sure you know, council/social housing is allocated on a points basis. This involves a consideration of the quality of the applicant’s current housing, their medical condition and a raft of other details.
I do not know of a single local authority which allocates points or priority to someone solely for BEING an immigrant, do you?
This idea has long been shown to be nonsense. For example, click below…
http://
The above link is from 2009, but it IS from The Telegraph, so you and YMB of all people would normally see it as gospel. Not only that, but if his claim that immigrants DO get priority for social housing is true now, in 2013, then that must be since the Tories and their sidekicks came to power!
The plain truth is that this claim has been around for many years and it is just as much a myth now as it was in the past. It’s just as silly as, “They took our jobs!”
So…over to you for the link that supports YOUR point about left wingers believing everything is hunky-dory in Britain. My breath is bated!
em...thanks for your link and here's a the second paragraph ::
In the 2011 census Office for National Statistics, the proportion of Muslims in London had risen to 12.4% of the population. In Newham and Tower Hamlets the percentages of Muslims were over 30%.
Even in Tower Hamlets the percentage of Muslims is only about 30%.
Isn't that the same way of saying that nearly 70% in Tower Hamlets isn't Muslim ? And from the same link, it would appear that only 12.4% of the residents of London as a whole are Muslim, ie 87.6% are not Muslim !
The maths is easy but some of the public, and a few high-profilers here on AB would have you think otherwise.
Exactly what the original post was on about !
In the 2011 census Office for National Statistics, the proportion of Muslims in London had risen to 12.4% of the population. In Newham and Tower Hamlets the percentages of Muslims were over 30%.
Even in Tower Hamlets the percentage of Muslims is only about 30%.
Isn't that the same way of saying that nearly 70% in Tower Hamlets isn't Muslim ? And from the same link, it would appear that only 12.4% of the residents of London as a whole are Muslim, ie 87.6% are not Muslim !
The maths is easy but some of the public, and a few high-profilers here on AB would have you think otherwise.
Exactly what the original post was on about !
Quizmonster...what you say is entirely logical and common sense but therein lies the rub. Our racists here on AB overt or covert, ignore facts because it interferes with their object, which is to stir up racial tension. They also use phrases like "swamped" and "destroying our culture" which are inflammatory.
Carry on being logical and reasonable but be prepared for the storm of abuse!
Carry on being logical and reasonable but be prepared for the storm of abuse!
"Our racists here on AB overt or covert, ignore facts because it interferes with their object, which is to stir up racial tension"
its people like you that cause the problem, with your open doors , because you just twist and distort everything.
Youll be happy when theres no whites left here, thats plainly obvious.
Every year the % of these people rises and has been doing so for the last 40 or so years and each year people like you trawl the same guff that its not a problem.
As usual anybody who wants to try and preserve their country and its culture and identity is called a racist...truly pathetic.
people like you should hold your head in shame at the way youre letting this country be destroyed, bit by bit day by day.
what garbage will you come out with in another ten years when the numbers are even higher ?
and if you want to throw insults around like knuckledragger etc etc (yawn) then dont start crying when it comes your way like some others on here.
everybody is entitled to opinions......as long as they agree with yours...is that how it works in your little bubble !?
its people like you that cause the problem, with your open doors , because you just twist and distort everything.
Youll be happy when theres no whites left here, thats plainly obvious.
Every year the % of these people rises and has been doing so for the last 40 or so years and each year people like you trawl the same guff that its not a problem.
As usual anybody who wants to try and preserve their country and its culture and identity is called a racist...truly pathetic.
people like you should hold your head in shame at the way youre letting this country be destroyed, bit by bit day by day.
what garbage will you come out with in another ten years when the numbers are even higher ?
and if you want to throw insults around like knuckledragger etc etc (yawn) then dont start crying when it comes your way like some others on here.
everybody is entitled to opinions......as long as they agree with yours...is that how it works in your little bubble !?
Mikey, why Muslim? Saying the percentage of Muslims in Tower Halmets amounts to 30% is the same as saying the rest aren’t Muslim, but it gives a hugely false impression of immigration figures. Immigrants come in flavours other than Muslim you know. The maths is easy – if you’re good at maths – and if anyone is ignoring facts it’s you.
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