I wish I could share you enthusiasm modeller. The Tories are on the run in Scotland and Wales, and they don't even campaign in Northern Ireland. If Scotland were to leave the UK, and Wales and Northern Ireland go on as they are, that leaves only England where the Tories could hope to lead a separate assembly.
At we stand at present, out of the possible total of 533 Parliamentary seats in England, the Tories won 298 and Labour only 191 in 2010. So it would seem that the Tories have more than a good chance of being in control of any English Parliament, if the boundaries remained largely the same. Even if the constituency boundaries were altered and the number of seats in total were reduced, Labour still has a steep hill to climb.
The minor parties and extremists will have precious little effect on any vote...its always been a 2 party fight in Britain and the results of 2010 haven't made much of a difference either way.
That is why us that live in the UK but don't live in Scotland, Wales , or Northern Ireland and support Labour had better pray that the Scots don't vote for independence. Its a simple case of arithmetic.