Labour Melt Down?

[ToraToraTora]

Prezza mouthing off, no mid term lead in the polls, all time low in confidence in red Ed. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23744316
If they are going to win the next election, generally a double figure lead mid term is required. Looks like a Tory landslide is comming!

[LazyGun]

There is a big difference between Labour in disarray and "Tory landslide".

[Peter Pedant]

and a golden agI of standard spelling will dawn.

I shouldn't carp - as my own posts are littered with typos.

Oh, the subject ? - to early to call I would think

[Sqad]

Well to be fair LazyGun...18 months ago with Labour 12-14 points ahead and a flat if not economy in recession, ....."certain" ABers were talking of a Labour landslide.

Good for the goose?

[mikey4444]

According to the latest YouGov poll, Labour is still ahead by 6 points.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/sqxomr7kyn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-160813.pdf

This isn't a huge gap but Labour have been ahead of the Tories since not long after the 2010 Election. If Labour are having such difficulties, why is Dave not ahead by 6 points ?

The answer may lie in the above YouGov link. When people were asked if Dave was doing well as Prime Minister, 39% said that he was doing well, but 54% said that he was doing badly. ( to be strictly fair, the Poll also suggests that none of the party leaders were performing well at all )

The LibDem results are truly appalling....only 10% in this Poll.

So, I don't think we can write off Labours chances in 2015 quite yet. Don't forget...the only reason that the Tories are in power at all is because the LibDems helped them with their 57 MPs.

Still a lot to play for it would seem !

[Sqad]

mikey...pick you polls to suit your argument.......everybody does...;-)

I agree, all to play for.

[murraymints]

Sqad for PM !

[Sqad]

murray...LOL...what at £120,000 per annum.....no thanks.

Well, perhaps I would do better on my memoirs.

[Gromit]

1st August Labour had an 11 point lead. Today it is down to 9 points. Hardly meltdown. And hardly the stuff of a Conservative landslide.

As prezzer complains, the shadow cabinet is light weight, and they have all gone on holiday at the same time leaving the Government unoppose for a fortnight. Despite the opposition being absent, the Conservatives still trail by 9 points.

I am not saying I am impressed by Ed and Labour, because I am not. But anyone thinking they are in meltdown or will badly lose the election must be living in a fantasy world.

[Gromit]

Poll of polls since 2010

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

[mikey4444]

I agree sqad, but none of the Polls give Dave the lead :::

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/sqxomr7kyn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-160813.pdf

Anthony Wells is a much respected commentator and he still gives Labour a majority of 84 seats.

So it would seem that Dave and his Party are unable to make the most of the present difficulties in the Labour Party, and it looks nigh-on impossible that they can rely on Cleggie for help next time. Also Boris and co are breathing down his neck, which can't be a comfortable thing to happen to anyone !

I'm not sure if Ed should be worrying half as much as Dave should be at the present time. Its going to be a very interesting 18 months !

[Sqad]

mikey.....

\\\\ agree sqad, but none of the Polls give Dave the lead ::: \\\\

LOL...I am surprised.

[Kromovaracun]

I'm not sure I'd describe what is happening to Labour as a 'meltdown' - that would imply something dramatic or exciting. They seem to just be slowly sinking into a toxic soup of soundbites and meaningless public appearances.

Much as I loathe the present government, I cannot bring myself to vote for Labour. I can't stand the vile form of politics they seem to stand for, and while I think Ed Miliband's heart is somewhere in the right kind of place, I have no faith in him whatsoever. He is an intellectually void, uninspiring nobody.

[Svejk]

I thought it was obvious that Labour are playing the long game. They have no intention and never have of winning the next election. Another few years of austerity and they can come back on shore- leave again.

[LazyGun]

@Sqad - Not sure i can remember a conversation about a "labour landside", although many have and continue to speculate that a Labour majority Govt. might be more likely than either an outright Tory win or the current ConDem coalition being re-elected.

I read it somewhere- have to think where it was now - but something about the way the constituencies are currently set up mean the tories have to work much harder to achieve a landslide. I think it has something to do with Labour being much stronger in the metropolitan/urban environments.

[Sqad]

LazyGun

\\\\\\certain" ABers were talking of a Labour landslide. \\\\\

Certain ABers.......;-)

[neil42]

All labour need to do is wait for the fruits of ther social engineering policy to ripen.the economy should be ready for them to decimate by the time they are old enough to vote.

[jno]

similar to the Tory landslide at the last election, no doubt.

However, it's true, Labour are offering no great alternative, just promising to stick with Tory policies. Why would anyone vote for that? Their voters won't back the LibDems again, they'll just stay home.

[mikey4444]

You may be right jno but why do you think that Labour are and have been consistently ahead in the polls ?

[Sqad]

mikey....

The gap is narrowing....but in answer to your question:

Recession, rising inflation, high unemployment, bloody stupid gay marriage bills..........Labour should be 15points ahead........and they know it.
The above will recede and the gap will close.....to what degree....who knows?

[jno]

governments taking unpopular measures usually lag in the polls, mikey: if you don't like what they're doing, who but the opposition are you going to say you support? Many people change their minds on election day, though. (I think that happened to Major.) Also, goverments these days are seldom thrown out after one term. I think the Tories will win on a very low turnout.