This Is A Bit Alarming - Rise In Strokes...
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Yougov Poll ...labour 10 Points Ahead
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Labour lead increasing, while Lib Dems floundering at 8%. UKIP still around 12%, again, not changed much in the last few weeks.
Poll was done Monday and Tuesday of this week, so Tory Conference not impressing many people. They still have time to ditch Dave in favour of Boris, but they have to get a move on.
Its worth pointing out that this Poll was commissioned by The Sun ! Bet they wished they had not bothered now !
Labour lead increasing, while Lib Dems floundering at 8%. UKIP still around 12%, again, not changed much in the last few weeks.
Poll was done Monday and Tuesday of this week, so Tory Conference not impressing many people. They still have time to ditch Dave in favour of Boris, but they have to get a move on.
Its worth pointing out that this Poll was commissioned by The Sun ! Bet they wished they had not bothered now !
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au contraire, the Sun needs to know which way the wind is blowing. They have no particular ideological slant, they just want to be where the voters are, and if Labour look like winning, that's who they'll back.
(Unlike the Mail, who are committed to the Tories and were horribly surprised when Blair won, having imagined that they represented the majority view themselves and suddenly found they didn't.)
I don't believe it, though, I'm expecting another hung parliament at the moment.
(Unlike the Mail, who are committed to the Tories and were horribly surprised when Blair won, having imagined that they represented the majority view themselves and suddenly found they didn't.)
I don't believe it, though, I'm expecting another hung parliament at the moment.
Radio 4 got a rare interview with Lord Ashcroft the other day and he put his finger on it
His research shows that for every voter leaving the Liberals to vote Tory 4 will leave to vote Labour
Ironically for the Tories to have a chance they have to make Clegg more popular.
Boris might appeal to the UKIP voters but he won't attract LibDem voters
Interestingly Ashcroft believes the effect to be even more pronounced in marginal seats
His research shows that for every voter leaving the Liberals to vote Tory 4 will leave to vote Labour
Ironically for the Tories to have a chance they have to make Clegg more popular.
Boris might appeal to the UKIP voters but he won't attract LibDem voters
Interestingly Ashcroft believes the effect to be even more pronounced in marginal seats
Morning everybody !
My opinion of the DM is never very good at the best of times. But they appear to have gone too far this time. Their attempt to smear Ed was too much, even Dave agrees. It has backfired in their faces. So what have they achieved ? Alienated a large section of the public, as well as the current Leader of their own party !
But these Polls really must be scaring the Tories. It doesn't seem to matter what they do, Labour is still ahead, and have been since soon after the 2010 Election. Why they don't just have a Night of the Long Knives and get Boris into the front row is beyond me. They are looking disaster in the face.
In addition they have a rump of their MPs who appear to favour some kind of pact with UKIP, something that Dave has expressly said he doesn't want.
Its going to be a very interesting 18 months, with everything still to play for.
My opinion of the DM is never very good at the best of times. But they appear to have gone too far this time. Their attempt to smear Ed was too much, even Dave agrees. It has backfired in their faces. So what have they achieved ? Alienated a large section of the public, as well as the current Leader of their own party !
But these Polls really must be scaring the Tories. It doesn't seem to matter what they do, Labour is still ahead, and have been since soon after the 2010 Election. Why they don't just have a Night of the Long Knives and get Boris into the front row is beyond me. They are looking disaster in the face.
In addition they have a rump of their MPs who appear to favour some kind of pact with UKIP, something that Dave has expressly said he doesn't want.
Its going to be a very interesting 18 months, with everything still to play for.
It is still too early doors for polls to have any real meaning at the moment, I think. The polls could give comfort either way - As the incumbent coalition presiding over an age of austerity, The Govt/Tories will probably to be only 10 points behind, and they still score higher than Labour on economic competence and leadership ability ( Cameron vs Miliband).
It might be interesting to see if this DM/ Milibands dad thing has caused any problems for the tories, in polls that will no doubt be carried out over the next week or so.
I am still thinking the likely outcome of the next GE will be another hung parliament/ no overall majority and hence another coalition.
It might be interesting to see if this DM/ Milibands dad thing has caused any problems for the tories, in polls that will no doubt be carried out over the next week or so.
I am still thinking the likely outcome of the next GE will be another hung parliament/ no overall majority and hence another coalition.
Jake. In term of seats at Westminster, the Libs are now fast becoming dead in the water. After the signing the pact with the devil, a lot of their traditional voters will go over to Labour, as you have said. I just can't see them being relevant in 2015, except in a very marginal way. They have had their 15 mins of fame and they now face another generation or two in the political wilderness, just like the 50's, 60's, etc. Who knows, they could be down to 5-6 seats again.
Boris made a wonderful comment about the Libs in his speech at Conference this week...something about "ditching the yellow albatross from around the neck of the Tory Party"... Priceless !
Not sure I am entirely with you on Boris. Every time he makes an appearance he lifts the Tories chance of success, and the party faithful know it. I watched his interview with Paxman on Newsnight again this morning :::
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No politician would welcome being grilled by Paxo but Boris took to it like a duck to water. He even managed to cope with the price of milk question with consummate ease. I am concious of sounding like the leader of the Boris Appreciation Society here but I really think he is the Tories brightest star. I just can't understand why the Men in Grey Suits don't take Dave to one side and tell him a few home truths. People of all political persuasion like Boris...he has an appeal that almost every other politician in the country would give his right arm for. Of course, he will make a bid for leadership in the future, but it will be too late to save Dave.
Boris made a wonderful comment about the Libs in his speech at Conference this week...something about "ditching the yellow albatross from around the neck of the Tory Party"... Priceless !
Not sure I am entirely with you on Boris. Every time he makes an appearance he lifts the Tories chance of success, and the party faithful know it. I watched his interview with Paxman on Newsnight again this morning :::
http://
No politician would welcome being grilled by Paxo but Boris took to it like a duck to water. He even managed to cope with the price of milk question with consummate ease. I am concious of sounding like the leader of the Boris Appreciation Society here but I really think he is the Tories brightest star. I just can't understand why the Men in Grey Suits don't take Dave to one side and tell him a few home truths. People of all political persuasion like Boris...he has an appeal that almost every other politician in the country would give his right arm for. Of course, he will make a bid for leadership in the future, but it will be too late to save Dave.
I agree that things can change rapidly based on the oddest events
But surely the Big Picture has a narrative something like this:
Labour leaves economy in a mess
Conservatives shout 'incompetence' and put focus on their promise to fix economy with measures that include harsh cutbacks
If the perception is that they have achieved that = Conservative success
If the perception is that things are not significantly better = Conservative Fail
But surely the Big Picture has a narrative something like this:
Labour leaves economy in a mess
Conservatives shout 'incompetence' and put focus on their promise to fix economy with measures that include harsh cutbacks
If the perception is that they have achieved that = Conservative success
If the perception is that things are not significantly better = Conservative Fail
Morning Sqad !
I really don't think that finding a seat for Boris will present too many problems. The Tories will stab some poor MP in the back and throw his body into a ditch, if needed, to make room for him. Croydon was mentioned a few days ago.
But you are right about his time coming, but the Tories need him now, not in some distant point in the future. Otherwise they face being in opposition for years, just like after 1997.
I really don't think that finding a seat for Boris will present too many problems. The Tories will stab some poor MP in the back and throw his body into a ditch, if needed, to make room for him. Croydon was mentioned a few days ago.
But you are right about his time coming, but the Tories need him now, not in some distant point in the future. Otherwise they face being in opposition for years, just like after 1997.
Zeuhl...you are right. But all Polls have put Labour in front of the Tories for nearly 2 years now. Its often said that British voters are guided by their wallets rather than then their hearts when they get in to the Polling Booth. So the only conclusion we can draw from all these Polls is that not enough people really believe that everything bad is down to Labour leaving Britain in a mess. If they think that the Tories are "sorting things out" than it fails to show in any Poll. Bad news for Dave, three years into his Primeministership.
The collapse of the banking system and the sub-prime housing market in America wasn't caused by Labour employing thousands more nurses and teachers.
I have to agree that the Polls might turn against Labour, before May 2015 but there is no sign of that in sight yet. With UKIP doing its best to destroy Tory seats, then it looks increasingly bad for Dave.
The collapse of the banking system and the sub-prime housing market in America wasn't caused by Labour employing thousands more nurses and teachers.
I have to agree that the Polls might turn against Labour, before May 2015 but there is no sign of that in sight yet. With UKIP doing its best to destroy Tory seats, then it looks increasingly bad for Dave.
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