ChatterBank0 min ago
Mikey
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You normally give us a regular update on the Labour lead, but you have been quiet recently......;-)
You normally give us a regular update on the Labour lead, but you have been quiet recently......;-)
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The Sun/YouGov poll I posted earlier today had Labour with a 6 point lead.
http://
Looking at one poll in isolation is misleading. The Poll of polls is more accurate, and as Labour's lead holding up.
http://
Looking at one poll in isolation is misleading. The Poll of polls is more accurate, and as Labour's lead holding up.
Sorry Sqad !
As you say, I have in the past posted the YouGov Poll. But its been so consistent for the last 2 years, that perhaps I have taken my eye off the ball somewhat. I obviously need to address this and thank you reminding me of my public duty !
The lead is now 7 points, as we can see from results published today ::
http://
(Note that there is a typo on the front page. Con should be 32%, not 33%.)
You have to go back to late 2010, just a few weeks after the General Election to find a position when Labour and the Tories were even neck and neck, let alone ahead. Ever since Labour have been consistently ahead.
We have the Euro elections coming up soon. These are relatively unimportant compared to a General Election of course, but the Tories are in imminent danger of coming third, behind Labour and the ghastly UKIP !
I have never pretended that everything is rosey in the Labour garden, as they are not half as as dynamic as I would like. Ed Balls, for instance, is an easy target for the Tory front bench to attack, and attack they do ! But despite this, the Tories still lag well behind. Could it perhaps be polices that makes Labour more attractive, rather than personalities ?
When voting intentions are examined in more detail you find that people from all age groups and backgrounds are more likely to support Labour rather than the Tories. Look, for instance at the voting intentions of the crucial over-40's in the above link...Labour are well ahead, by as many as 13 points. Only amongst the wealthy and well-educated does the lead shrink to 1 point.
There really isn't any good news whatsoever for dave in these Polls. There isn't even the smallest glimmer of light. In Scotland, for instance, the situation is dire. They only have one seat left north of the border and they face losing it.
There is plenty to play for but not really plenty of time left. Campaigning for the next General Election will start in about 14 months time. Unless dave gets a grip, he faces being retired to the Tory back benches in disgrace.
Just when dave thought it couldn't get any worse, here is this morning's Telegraph :::
http://
Note the key word in the headline "Landslide" and this is from a TORY newspaper !
As you say, I have in the past posted the YouGov Poll. But its been so consistent for the last 2 years, that perhaps I have taken my eye off the ball somewhat. I obviously need to address this and thank you reminding me of my public duty !
The lead is now 7 points, as we can see from results published today ::
http://
(Note that there is a typo on the front page. Con should be 32%, not 33%.)
You have to go back to late 2010, just a few weeks after the General Election to find a position when Labour and the Tories were even neck and neck, let alone ahead. Ever since Labour have been consistently ahead.
We have the Euro elections coming up soon. These are relatively unimportant compared to a General Election of course, but the Tories are in imminent danger of coming third, behind Labour and the ghastly UKIP !
I have never pretended that everything is rosey in the Labour garden, as they are not half as as dynamic as I would like. Ed Balls, for instance, is an easy target for the Tory front bench to attack, and attack they do ! But despite this, the Tories still lag well behind. Could it perhaps be polices that makes Labour more attractive, rather than personalities ?
When voting intentions are examined in more detail you find that people from all age groups and backgrounds are more likely to support Labour rather than the Tories. Look, for instance at the voting intentions of the crucial over-40's in the above link...Labour are well ahead, by as many as 13 points. Only amongst the wealthy and well-educated does the lead shrink to 1 point.
There really isn't any good news whatsoever for dave in these Polls. There isn't even the smallest glimmer of light. In Scotland, for instance, the situation is dire. They only have one seat left north of the border and they face losing it.
There is plenty to play for but not really plenty of time left. Campaigning for the next General Election will start in about 14 months time. Unless dave gets a grip, he faces being retired to the Tory back benches in disgrace.
Just when dave thought it couldn't get any worse, here is this morning's Telegraph :::
http://
Note the key word in the headline "Landslide" and this is from a TORY newspaper !
'Landslide'?
http://
58 seats is hardly a landslide
Still perhaps it is when you're in a coalition without an absolute majority
http://
58 seats is hardly a landslide
Still perhaps it is when you're in a coalition without an absolute majority
Emmie...you are right...a week is a long time in politics. But 3 years is even longer and the Tories have been behind Labour for a long time now. Without a doubt, the nations finances will start to recover, despite this Governments policies. But it isn't just Labour that dave has to worry about.
UKIP will steal voters out from under his feet with gay abandon in a few months time. A sizable minority of his own MPs are siding with UKIP's ever more barmy views on Europe. Europe came to bite Hague, IDS and Howard in the ars* in the recent past and history is repeating itself. He also has to consider the effect of the Scottish Independence vote. It would seem to me that the vote will probably be no, but a large factor in the Yes campaign is Scotlands hatred of anything Tory. Dave also has concerns about the increasingly fractious relationship with his coalition partner. The LibDems are now finding out that in order to sup with the Devil, you need a very long spoon. Even then, it is leaving a very nasty taste in their mouths. Lets not forget that the LibDems were king-makers back in the summer of 2010 but are highly unlikely to be so again.
I am not being over confident but there is really no good news whatsoever for dave here. The best he can do is to ensure that the Tories don't lose by too much in May 2015. Its damage limitation that he should be concerned with.
UKIP will steal voters out from under his feet with gay abandon in a few months time. A sizable minority of his own MPs are siding with UKIP's ever more barmy views on Europe. Europe came to bite Hague, IDS and Howard in the ars* in the recent past and history is repeating itself. He also has to consider the effect of the Scottish Independence vote. It would seem to me that the vote will probably be no, but a large factor in the Yes campaign is Scotlands hatred of anything Tory. Dave also has concerns about the increasingly fractious relationship with his coalition partner. The LibDems are now finding out that in order to sup with the Devil, you need a very long spoon. Even then, it is leaving a very nasty taste in their mouths. Lets not forget that the LibDems were king-makers back in the summer of 2010 but are highly unlikely to be so again.
I am not being over confident but there is really no good news whatsoever for dave here. The best he can do is to ensure that the Tories don't lose by too much in May 2015. Its damage limitation that he should be concerned with.
The coalition were always going to take a hit clearing up the mess labour left behind (even admitted by them now!)
Inflation is now to 2% and, all things being equal, should mean the cost of living vs wage disparity should diminish.
Will it be sufficient before the next election? Just have to wait and see I guess.
Inflation is now to 2% and, all things being equal, should mean the cost of living vs wage disparity should diminish.
Will it be sufficient before the next election? Just have to wait and see I guess.
There is the suspicion that the Government and its policies are not fully in control of inflation. For the last couple of years, the markets have been worried about deflation. Deflation often follows a recession and long periods of no growth and stagnation.
// Europe is still some way from a negative inflation rate, let alone a Japanese-style deflationary spiral - the policymakers' nightmare in which falling prices weaken demand, leading to wage cuts and even lower prices.
But a warning light is already flashing, with euro zone inflation registering a shock drop last month that prompted an interest rate cut.
This year's "Great Rotation" flows away from bonds have propelled many stock markets to multi-year or record highs and fuelled a rally in property and other relatively high-yielding assets.
But it's a potential money loser in an environment of weak inflation or even outright price declines. With chronic price falls, investors become ultra-risk averse.
"Deflation would follow from lower growth than we currently have. It would increase the attraction of fixed income versus equities," said Jan Loeys, JPMorgan's head of asset allocation.
Now comes falling inflation. In the euro zone, it slowed to just 0.7 percent last month, well below the European Central Bank's target of below, but close to 2 percent. The ECB halved interest rates to a fresh low of just 0.25 percent as a result.
And if inflation falls further, the ECB could act again. This puts it on a potentially divergent path from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which most observers say will begin the process of removing its policy stimulus in the coming months. //
Very low inflation, and he threat of deflation is an indicator that the economy is floundering, not pucking up.
// Europe is still some way from a negative inflation rate, let alone a Japanese-style deflationary spiral - the policymakers' nightmare in which falling prices weaken demand, leading to wage cuts and even lower prices.
But a warning light is already flashing, with euro zone inflation registering a shock drop last month that prompted an interest rate cut.
This year's "Great Rotation" flows away from bonds have propelled many stock markets to multi-year or record highs and fuelled a rally in property and other relatively high-yielding assets.
But it's a potential money loser in an environment of weak inflation or even outright price declines. With chronic price falls, investors become ultra-risk averse.
"Deflation would follow from lower growth than we currently have. It would increase the attraction of fixed income versus equities," said Jan Loeys, JPMorgan's head of asset allocation.
Now comes falling inflation. In the euro zone, it slowed to just 0.7 percent last month, well below the European Central Bank's target of below, but close to 2 percent. The ECB halved interest rates to a fresh low of just 0.25 percent as a result.
And if inflation falls further, the ECB could act again. This puts it on a potentially divergent path from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which most observers say will begin the process of removing its policy stimulus in the coming months. //
Very low inflation, and he threat of deflation is an indicator that the economy is floundering, not pucking up.
Gromit...right of course.
But have you noticed that there are increasing mentions in the media over the last few weeks, of how the British economy " is recovering" ?
Recovering for whom exactly ? Raising the minimum wage to £7.00 would help some people and is to be welcomed. But such a move would still leave millions in poverty. Its a fact often seen here in AB just as often ignored that most people on benefits are also working, but earning so little that they still qualify for state handouts.
Where is the justice in that ?
But have you noticed that there are increasing mentions in the media over the last few weeks, of how the British economy " is recovering" ?
Recovering for whom exactly ? Raising the minimum wage to £7.00 would help some people and is to be welcomed. But such a move would still leave millions in poverty. Its a fact often seen here in AB just as often ignored that most people on benefits are also working, but earning so little that they still qualify for state handouts.
Where is the justice in that ?
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