Ukraine - What Happens Next?

[ludwig]

Are we going to see further encroachments into eastern Ukraine, and perhaps even other countries?

[anotheoldgit]

Personally I fail to see anything wrong, if people overwhelmingly want to be attached to a particular country what does it matter, surely that is democracy.

If Scotland get their independence and those in the far Northern parts of England wish to attach themselves to Scotland, would it be anything to do with Russia?

[jim360]

That would be fine, if the vote was purely democratic. But it was rushed, taking two weeks between the referendum being proposed, the vote happening, and the absorption of Crimea into Russia being signed into "law" -- all this, with no consent from the rest of Ukraine. It's surely far from being democratic, and looks rather closer to a coup d'etat under the thin veil of democracy. So many people boycotted the vote -- perhaps a mistake, but a choice people are entitled to make -- that the figure of 97% should be treated with some scepticism. Indeed, it's said that the two options presented were sometihng like "Join Russia, or secede from Ukraine" -- no option even presented to stay as part of Ukraine. Again, that's not a democratic procedure, because one entire option was never asked.

Let us hope that the Russians stop at Crimea, and that the takeover is peaceful. But if, as seems like, Europe and the US do nothing to stop it, why would the Russians stop there? Very likely they could go further, still with little to no real response.

This is something to worry about.

[ichkeria]

Europe may need Russian gas, but Russia also needs Europe's money for the gas. And they don't have a plan B for raising extra cash. And even if in the short term they have to buy it, long term Russia is shooting itself in the foot.

Crimea faces a very difficult and uncertain future. It is a beautiful place with huge potential as an international holiday destination. But now it will become one of the world's outcasts, like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh. Many, maybe most Ukrainains will leave, as perhaps will the hard-working Muslim Tatars, just when it looked as though they were going to be able to return to their native land. It's easily overlooked by the flag-waving grannies in Sevastopol that the peninsula is not really "Russian" at all. The predominance of ethnic Russians is largely down to Stalin's purge after the war.
In addition Crimea receives millions of euros in subsidies from Ukraine, which also supplies its water and gas.
Oddly, in the midst of all this, Dinamo Kyiv were still playing Tavria FC (Simferopol) in a Ukrainian leage game on the eve of the referendum (!)

As to whether Putin will move into Eastern or Southern Ukraine I can only say that if he does that he will unleash mayhem. And I don't think even he is mad or arrogant enough to think he could control the consequence. Places like Donetsk, Odessa etc etc are not like Crimea. There are few actual Russians there and people's opposition to Kyiv and Maidan is based more on economic fears than any desire to join Russia. There are a lot of provocations going on there just now, quite possibly much of it stoked from outside (Ukrainian Border Service has turned back hundreds of Russians trying to enter the eastern regions)
Thousands of volunteers have joined the newly formed National Guard, while local military units (Gorlovki) exist all over the country, Donetsk included, and have issued dire warnings about any Russian incursion.

In a news conference today Putin said he wouldn't "spilt Ukraine" as he "doesn't need to" Aside from the sheer arrogance of this, I would not trust the veracity either. If he announced that today was Tuesday I'd be checking my calendar ...

[mikey4444]

Putin can, and will do whatever he wants to, whenever he sees the need. The West cannot and will not do anything apart the Ukraine. Good cartoon from Steve Bell today in the Guardian ::::

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/mar/18/steve-bell-crisis-crimea-cartoon

[ichkeria]

He "can" invade or interfere in Ukraine but as I indicated earlier he will reap a Ukrainian whirlwind if he does, regardless of Hague and Kerry

[ichkeria]

Ukrainian forces well dug in now along the Eastern border.
Come and have a go Putin if you think you're a man ,