Could This Prove A Significant Breakthrough In The Crimea/ukraine Crisis?

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26795627

[youngmafbog]

The riskiest wanted Crimea. They have it so I suspect that they are not so interested in Ukraine itself. Of course some in Ukraine want to be part of Russia so it will be interesting to see if Obama recognises their wishes.

[ichkeria]

Ukrainian people will view this with the utmost suspicion.
The real breakthrough will be when Putin stops sulking and recognises the President and government of Ukraine (that may not come until after the May 25 elections). Russia has no legitimate interest in Ukraine and the sooner it starts behaving like a responsible neighbour to that country the better

[mikey4444]

The "breakthrough" isn't going to happen. Putin has moved into the Crimea and he isn't about to move back out again. He knows that the West can make all the protests they like, but it won't change anything. He has got away with it, pure and simple. And if he can get away with invading the Crimea, the people in other countries, like Moldova and the Baltic States must be feeling decidedly uneasy at the moment.

[ichkeria]

The Tatar Parliament in Crimea today voted to seek ethnic and territorial autonomy from Russian domination. The course of true military adventurism never runs smooth :-)

[Graham-W]

I don't think the Russians will push for the Ukraine. Crimea give them access to the gas and oil reserves in the Black sea. To date finds have been small but Crimea, not the Ukraine, gives Russia the rights to any future finds.

[ichkeria]

The only reason Putin won't invade Ukraine is that he wouldn't get away with it. Our local village WI could have gone into Crimea. The rest of Ukraine is a different matter. Who knows what the thinking behind the Crimean operation was, but my guess it was out of a gut desire to bite back. Putin can never draw Ukraine back into his orbit and he probably knows it. His attempts to destabilise the east have not been very successful to date so any move to 'protect Russian speakers' is probably a non-starter. Still there's a huge force there which is capable of moving to establish land connection with Crimea.
In which case Obama was right to say that Russia acted out of weakness not strength. And I bet that really infuriated them

[anotheoldgit]

What would happen in the Crimea if Russia was to withdraw, since it seems obvious that the vast amount of Crimea's population want to be allied with Russia, would they start a civil war?

[ichkeria]

AOG
If Russia was to withdraw its forces - either back to Russia proper or those naval forces based (legally) in Sevastopol) were to return to base, then there would be no civil war.
There was no strife before the annexation bar one large and violent clash between pro- and anti- Ukrainian supporters in Simferopol.

It's important to recognise that it is largely, I'm afraid, the actions of the Russians themselves which has led to this crisis. Their intervention should not be seen as in any way an attempt to bring peace or stability to what was already a peaceful and stable place, albeit a haven for organised crime, which you may be assured it will continue to be (only probably more so)
In fact as I said on another thread, what is happening in Crimea and indeed in Eastern Ukraine, needs to be viewed in many ways as organised crime syndicates (the largest of which id the Kremlin) trying to protect their patch.

On the referendum, probably the vast majority of those who actually voted, voted in favour of independence, but a Ukrainian MP claims to have obtained information from the FSB in the Crimea that as few as 37% of the legal electorate actually voted. Not surprising, really, given that over 40% of the population could be guaranteed to support staying part of Ukraine, but this option was not available on the ballot paper.
So the "referendum" was no sort of referendum at all, even allowing for the fact that it was illegal.