Wil It Be A Bruising Fir Tge Tories?

[youngmafbog]

Latest poll puts labour just ahead of jkip at 30% to ukips 27%. The Tories trail with 22%. The liberals might as well get their coats now.

Will Cameron accept what the public want with regard to the EU and immigration or will he plough on with his usual arrogance? I am a lifelong card carrying Tory but believe me I have had enough of him so the floaters will definitley leave in their droves. So will it be bye bye Dave?

And looks like Miliband has not got musch to shout about just 3..% more!

[youngmafbog]

Oops forgot
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10776305/European-elections-Conservatives-face-poll-humiliation-as-one-in-three-Tory-voters-defect-to-Ukip.html

[Zacs-Master]

Who did the poll?

[Zacs-Master]

Mmm.

[rockyracoon]

Will this lead to a Con/UKIP coalition?

[emmie]

no, it could lead to a Lab/Lib pact

[New Judge]

Despite what is suggested in various places and despite what Mr Cameron privately thinks, the issue of the UK’s relationship with the EU (not forgetting the accompanying problem with unlimited immigration that our membership brings) is a very thorny issue with many people. This is particularly so among Conservative voters. Those who suggest that the “rich” are perfectly happy to see unfettered immigration because they can cheaply employ nannies and plumbers are making light of what to some is a very serious issue.

Mr Cameron has belatedly woken up and realised that if he is to poll sufficient votes to gain a working majority in the next General Election he must retain the votes of many Tory voters who have been completely dismayed at seeing their country changed beyond recognition whilst the party they expect to conserve (the clue is in the name) their well-being sits idly by.

The Tory party seems to be campaigning on the basis that any alternative to a Conservative government is too horrendous to contemplate. They may well be right but if they want to avoid such an alternative they must properly address the concerns of their core voters. And that will not happen whilst “Call Me Dave” is in charge.

[emmie]

who can they call on at this stage though, you don't think Boris would do any better,

[Gromit]

UKiP came second at the last Euro Election beating Labour into third place.

I do not believe the poll. UKiP will win the most the most seats next month and win the election. Labour will be a close second. A very bad day for the Conservatives going from winning last time to third. The LibDems will be fourth, same as last time.

Cameron (and Miliband if he wins the General Election) will not take a jott of notice.

[youngmafbog]

No it is too late to change now.

Milliband is likely to walk it next year off the back of 'Daves' stupid remarks of late.

Oh well at least he is happy he gave our money away to foreigners whilst people in this country struggled.

[emmie]

there is a year to go, you cannot foresee the outcome

[youngmafbog]

I can see the way it is going. I also know many lifelong Tories such as myself having second doubts if dave remains in charge.

[emmie]

if you or your friends don't cast your vote for Cameron, then it goes elsewhere, every vote counts.

[emmie]

perhaps, but a vote for UKIP is likely to be grist for the Milliband camp

[mikey4444]

The forth-coming Euro Elections really don't matter a hill of beans compared to the General Election in 12 months time. The Tories have been consistently behind Labour since just after the 2010 Election, as I never tire of pointing out.

According to the You Gov Poll, Labour has been between 2 and 6 points ahead of the Tories in the last few days :::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

And UKIP are nowhere.

Electoral Calculus have been very good at predicting results of General Elections for some time, and they are still saying that the more likely outcome in 2015 will be a Labour majority of 40 seats.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Its quite possible that the the LibDems will side with Labour if they have to, although they may have little to bargain with. And again, UKIP are nowhere.

Electoral Calculus are not even quoting UKIP in their predictions, and the bookies are giving them between 100/1 and 200/1. to be in Number 10 next year.

Far be it for me to stifle debate, but can some people just accept that UKIP is not going to win the next Election !

[scooping]

Fan of Farage but how weird are the views on UKIP website. Worrying.

[emmie]

i don't think anyone on here thinks that they will, but that they will do better in the European elections - are you suggesting that Labour will get an outright win at the General Election?

[mikey4444]

Emmie...of course nobody expects UKIP to be in number 10 next May, not even Farage himself. But I just wish everybody would put UKIP in its right place. The Greens have 100% mores seats at Westminster but nobody keeps on about them all the time ! And I repeat, it really doesn't matter who sends more MEPs to Brussels, well not much anyway.

I personally think that Labour will win but will need some kind of coalition in order to govern, as dave did. But Electoral Calculus have much more resource at their disposal, and they think that Labour will win an outright majority, with 40 seats. The bookies also agree but with a smaller margin, and bookies are not known for being partisan or sentimental !

[emmie]

obviously i hope you are wrong,

[mikey4444]

!2 months to go emmie, and a lot can change. For instance, the Tory Party could ditch dave and put Boris in place. The same, of course, could be said about Ed Milliband, but then, Labour are not lagging behind in the Polls.