Technology3 mins ago
Stop Press...farage Isn't Going To Stand In Newark !
Just heard on the radio...he isn't going to stand after all !
Seems a sensible decision to me.
Seems a sensible decision to me.
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I thought he might stand, and with a good chance of winning but as he said on News24 this morning, he is not particularly associated with the area and would correctly be seen as an opportunist so he has decided to concentrate on the EU elections. "Bottled" it farrier! PMSL, how wonderful it must be to inhabit your universe with your legendary reasoning power.
It would be a distraction to the European Election campaign which should give UKiP some immediate success.
The time to stand for Parliament for Farage is at the General Election where he can pick a more vulnerable Tory seat.
But I am sure UKiP will feild a candidate at Newark who could win it. That would be embarrassing for Farage. It would be another Eastleigh where he chickened out and UKiP only narrowly came second. If UKiP do very well in this bye election then he could be accused of bottling out again.
If Farage definitely isn't standing, it would make it more likely that Boris would. But my guess is that he won't. Better to have no part in this Government before it gets trounced at a general election. Then rebuild in Oppisition.
The time to stand for Parliament for Farage is at the General Election where he can pick a more vulnerable Tory seat.
But I am sure UKiP will feild a candidate at Newark who could win it. That would be embarrassing for Farage. It would be another Eastleigh where he chickened out and UKiP only narrowly came second. If UKiP do very well in this bye election then he could be accused of bottling out again.
If Farage definitely isn't standing, it would make it more likely that Boris would. But my guess is that he won't. Better to have no part in this Government before it gets trounced at a general election. Then rebuild in Oppisition.
Just looked how Newark voted at the last election.
Conservative 27,590
Labour. 11,438
Liberal Democrat 10,246
UKIP 1,954
I reckon it is a conservative hold. it is a big majority.
But if UKiP split the Conservative vote it could be close. This will be an interesting test of how much damage a UKiP candidate can inflict on a Conservative one.
UKiP splitting the Conservative vote could benefit Labour, especially if the LibDem vote collapses (as it has in recent bye elections) and Labour takes those votes.
The LibDems will be bounced to 4th and probably lose their deposit again.
It looks like an interesting one.
Conservative 27,590
Labour. 11,438
Liberal Democrat 10,246
UKIP 1,954
I reckon it is a conservative hold. it is a big majority.
But if UKiP split the Conservative vote it could be close. This will be an interesting test of how much damage a UKiP candidate can inflict on a Conservative one.
UKiP splitting the Conservative vote could benefit Labour, especially if the LibDem vote collapses (as it has in recent bye elections) and Labour takes those votes.
The LibDems will be bounced to 4th and probably lose their deposit again.
It looks like an interesting one.
scooping
/// Gaff by Farage saying yesterday he wasn't sure whether Newark was 'the right seat for him'. Does he think he's in a car showroom, picking what he fancies? ///
Is he any different from all other politicians who will pick safe seats, if given a chance?
Yes I know that it is a disappointment for the media, the other parties and some on here, who would have loved ridiculing him if he had happened to lose.
/// Gaff by Farage saying yesterday he wasn't sure whether Newark was 'the right seat for him'. Does he think he's in a car showroom, picking what he fancies? ///
Is he any different from all other politicians who will pick safe seats, if given a chance?
Yes I know that it is a disappointment for the media, the other parties and some on here, who would have loved ridiculing him if he had happened to lose.
The Eastleigh constituency is different from here, but if the 'Eastleigh Effect' was applied in Newark, the figures would be interesting.
At Eastleigh the conservative vote halved going from 21,000 to 10,000. The LibDem vote nearly halved from 24,000 to 13,000. Labours vote dropped by a fifth from 5,000 to 4,000. UKiP was the beneficery gaining 10,000 votes.
Apply those changes to Newark would see something like....
Conservative 14,000
UKIP 12,000
Labour. 10,000
Liberal Democrat 5,000
However that does not allow for the change in turnout (or the extra candidates standing) which may lower the figures. Still, it could be close.
At Eastleigh the conservative vote halved going from 21,000 to 10,000. The LibDem vote nearly halved from 24,000 to 13,000. Labours vote dropped by a fifth from 5,000 to 4,000. UKiP was the beneficery gaining 10,000 votes.
Apply those changes to Newark would see something like....
Conservative 14,000
UKIP 12,000
Labour. 10,000
Liberal Democrat 5,000
However that does not allow for the change in turnout (or the extra candidates standing) which may lower the figures. Still, it could be close.
To overturn a 16,000 majority is a tall order. Farage has shown good sense not to stand. however, a UKiP bounce after the Euro result could flook it to UKiP.
Farage needs a marginal Conservative seat with a Liberal in second place. My guess is that he already knows which seat he will be standing for a the General election.
Farage needs a marginal Conservative seat with a Liberal in second place. My guess is that he already knows which seat he will be standing for a the General election.
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