Morning Mikey

[Sqad]

Latest youGov Poll is suggesting a Labour lead of 3% with one year to go.

Not a question........just an observation ;-)

[anotheoldgit]

Latest YouGov / Sun on Sunday results 1st May - Con 33%, Lab 36%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%;

[grumpy01]

LD have 10% more that they ought to have.

[Svejk]

they just showed a poll on 'Andrew marr' giving them a 1% lead. I wouldn't pay much attention to them but I know mikey likes them.

[Sqad]

\\\\I wouldn't pay much attention to them but I know mikey likes them\\\

;-)

[mikey4444]

And a good morning to you Sqad. Beautiful start to the day here in Wales...already quite warm, and its not raining, so we are happy bunnies here ! Bet its hot with you though.

Yes, as you say, a 3% lead for Labour, according to the latest YouGov Polls published today, but the same Polls gave a 6% lead only 3 days ago. Its the trend that we need to look at, not individual Polls.

I have been waiting for the Electoral Calculus site to update which it normally does the start of each month, before posting :::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Maybe it will update on Tuesday after the B/H.

This boost for the Tories appears to be of its own doing, as the LibDems and the ghastly UKIP are unchanged. It will be interesting to see what the Polls will say after the 22nd of this month, when we have all had a chance of voting in the Euro elections. The Tories are widely predicted, by the Bookies, to come third, with UKIP in first and Labour in 2nd place. And, as you are undoubtedly aware Sqad, there are no poor, unsuccessful Bookies !

[Nibble]

Especially, as an unsuccessful bookie is usually called a "punter" :)

[Sqad]

mikey.....i knew that you would have an appropriate answer.

European elections? who cares a "toss", they will be lucky to salvage a 40% turnout.........few are really interested and Europe will be insignificant in the General Election.

In hope for an outright Labour or Tory victory as i have never been fond of the "grey area" in any aspect of my life.

Tories will say ( I hope) a vote for UKIP will let in Milliband......it is up to you.

Labour will say...yeah! the economy has grown,,BUT do you feel any "better?"

Interesting 12 months ahead,but Labour need to open up that gap that you have often talked about.

[Peter Pedant]

what is the wobble on the sample size ?

standard error of themean I think I mean

if they only polled 100, three is insignificant

[youngmafbog]

The ghastly UKIP,would that be because they listen to what the public want rather than nanny them into doing what the papper think?

[youngmafbog]

Party.

[mikey4444]

See for yourself PP ::::

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/rabu8qa9d0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140502.pdf

Nearly 2000 people were interviewed. On another issue, if you look at the 2nd page you will see that UKIP and Labour are neck-and-neck in the run up to the Euro elections.

Sqad...I am with you 100% on the importance of the Euro Elections, as far as most Brits are concerned. I have been saying that for ages, especially in relation to UKIP's so-called popularity. Its Westminster that counts, and UKIP will fail miserably.

As you say, an interesting 11-12 months ahead of us Sqad !

[mikey4444]

I am not going to argue with you over UKIP ymb ! Its too nice a day outside and dog needs a walk, as I do.

[mrs_overall]

It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in

[mikey4444]

Errrrrr?....thanks for sharing that with us Mrs O !

[DTCwordfan]

More appropriately to mrs O's remark, they are all as immoral and corrupt as each other.

[mrs_overall]

I think there is very little to choose between the two major parties these days - they are as bad as each other

[aelmpvw]

voting for them just encourages them

[Brenden]

Bring back Oliver Cromwell.

[mikey4444]

You would have to stick his head back on first Brenden !