I'd suggest that if UKIP cannot win here then the so-called political earthquake may be stilled.
Their candidate is a real oddity: looks like a character from Jeeves and Wooster. And seems to have views to match. You'd think they'd have put up a more convincing one, as there won't be too many more by-election chances for them.
Well, the Tories should win, if the result in 2010 is anything to go by. They are defending quite a big majority, although their previous incumbent had to resign in disgrace. Most interesting by-election for years !
1. Conservative
2. UKiP
3. Labour
4. Green
5. LibDem
A bad day for everyone except UKiP.
The Conservative's huge majority will be slashed but they will hold on to the seat.
UKiP will be second but a couple of thou short of winning.
Labour will be third and the LibDems will lose their deposit.
That's what I think TTT, it is undeniable that you like to "stoke the fire of debate" - even if "stoke" usually actually means pouring some petrol on :)
I might have removed it if it wasn't one the regulars being mentioned, or someone who doesn't engage in the robust end of the debate.
I think Gromit has probably called the order - it'll be another sad day for the LibDems.
The big problem - one of many - faced by UKIP is that the 'populist' views of many of its members are repulsive to the majority. They will hit a ceiling beyond which it is impossible for them to progress. I suspect that ceiling has already been reached. The recoil when it happens might be quite spectacular
I think Gromit's prediction is likely to be accurate but that really should be seen as good for the Tories and Greens - and maybe UKIP if they only lose by a handful. Even Labour might not be that depressed as they were miles behind at the last election anyway.
Gromit...have I got you right, in your post of 11.12 today ? Are all those IDs and TTT the same person ? If so, how can you know, or have I got the wrong end of the stick here altogether ?