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United States Assessment Of The Downing Of Flight Mh17 And Its Aftermath

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ichkeria | 09:22 Sun 20th Jul 2014 | News
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The US Embassy in Kyiv (no doubt inter many alia) has issued this within the last minutes

http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/asmt-07192014.html
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It's fairly obvious that Putin's stance has quite literally blown up in his face and his present silence can only mean that his advisors are working tirelessly on what sort of strategy to take and how they are going to play this one out. Either way, his continued reluctance to make any statement is damning and the weight of world opinion and condemnation must...
10:54 Sun 20th Jul 2014
It's fairly obvious that Putin's stance has quite literally blown up in his face and his present silence can only mean that his advisors are working tirelessly on what sort of strategy to take and how they are going to play this one out.
Either way, his continued reluctance to make any statement is damning and the weight of world opinion and condemnation must already be weighing heavily on his shoulders.
Chill

No one is doubting that pro-Russia Rebels used a Russian built launcher and missiles to down the aircraft. Everything in that Guardian Report confirms that.

// the airliner was "likely downed by a surface-to-air missile, an SA-11, operated from a separatist-held location in eastern Ukraine". //

But the separatists had a launcher they captured on 29th June. Boasting of that at the time (in my 2nd LiveLeak link above), the DNR representative said...

// These Soviet systems are noted for simplicity of operation, requiring minimum training of their crews. Do not be surprised if even an untrained volunteer can operate them successfully. //

In your Guardian link the US say
// "It strains credulity to think [the missile] could be used by separatists without at least some measure of Russian support and technical assistance," said Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby. //

I do not know which launcher was used, or whether it was fired by Separatists or Russian Technicians. I do not think anyone knows for sure yet. The rush to blame a Russian crew is political. They may have been responsible, but there is the possibility that they were not.

Mistaking a civilian aircraft for a military aircraft appears to be something an untrained separatist operator might do rather than a trained Russian one.
it might have been deliberate. One side effect is that international flights will not use Ukrainian airspace any more; as overflight rights are paid for, this will hit Ukraine's income.
Gromit > Mistaking a civilian aircraft for a military aircraft appears to be something an untrained separatist operator might do rather than a trained Russian one. <

well trained americans have done it in the past

> On July 3, 1988,
in the Persian Gulf. An Airbus A300 took off from a nearby airport, one which was used for both military and civilian purposes. An American cruiser, the USS Vincennes, mistook the plane for an F-14, an American fighter plane that we had sold to Iran before the 1979 revolution, and launched two missiles, downing the plane and killing everyone on board.
jomifl
// Gromit, what obscenity will you not excuse to support your warped views? //

Not sure what warped views you are objecting to. I am just looking at the available evidence and seeing if there is evidence to conclusively blame the Russians for firing the deadly missile. While there is some evidence they may have supplied the weaponry, there is also the possibility that a captured launcher was used.

In the end 298 innocent people are dead. I would like to know the truth about who killed them rather than jump to a conclusion for political gain. The US are just pouring petrol on the flames by ignoring evidence that does not support their view.
No one is saying it's a Russian crew Gromit, but the world knows that there will have been Russian involvement at some point or juncture.
Tell me, why do you think we've heard nothing from Mad Vlad on the issue? Why are pro-Russian rebels in the area so reluctant to allow any decent access to the crash site?
For a group blaming the Ukraine military they appear to have an awful lot to hide at the crash site/debris field for some reason.
What would that be do you reckon?
DrFilth

I made the same point on Thursady afternoon when this story broke.

http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1351427-2.html
Gromit i also posted about it in that thread now i know why it was ignored
Chill

No one is in any doubt that the rebels shot down the airliner by mistake. It is the level of Russian involvement that is crucial.

If the Russians supplied a launcher and crew and they fired the deadly missile then yes, Putin has a lot to answer for.

If the separatists used a captured launcher and their personnel fired the deadly shot, then Putin is less to blame.

Russia is behind the Separatists. The EU supplied the cause for the rebellion.
DrFilth
// now know why it was ignored //

Why was it ignored, and who ignored it?
If the Russians supplied a launcher and crew and they fired the deadly missile then yes, Putin has a lot to answer for.

If the separatists used a captured launcher and their personnel fired the deadly shot, then Putin is less to blame.
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Everyone knows he is to blame, it's just the level that is to be ascertained. He has backed, supplied and fuelled the rebels, hence he will be deemed culpable by the West.
Question Author
"Russia is behind the Separatists. The EU supplied the cause for the rebellion. "

That is a bit like blaming the Allies for WWII for their insistence on opposing Nazism :-)
It's worth reflecting that there was no rebellion in Ukraine until Putin interfered.
Yanukovych was democratically elected President in 2010 and began to back off from joining an Association with the EU. He was from the East of Ukraine which is more influenced by the Russians than Europe. He had previously been Chairman of the CIS so he preferred a bail out from Russia rather than joining the EU. (He preferred to be a Putin puppet rather than an EU Puppet).

It was an unpopular decision which led to civil unrest. He fled to Russia in January 2014 and in his absence, the Ukraine Parliament voted to oust him (even though it did not have enough votes to do so under the constitution to do so). In new elections a Pro-EU President was elected.

After the revolution the pro Russian eastern regions began a fight to break away and ascede to Russia. The areas have a high population of people of Russian heritage, and Putin readily supported them.

Yanukovych was clearly pro Russia and anti EU. The Opposition pro EU anti Russia. Yanukovych got most of his votes from the Russian leaning East of the country. His subsequent ousting resulted in the East looking to Russia for help and the country tearing itself apart.

Putin's culpability in all this is about the same as the EU's.
Putin's culpability in all this is about the same as the EU's.
---------------------------
Oh puleeeeeeeeeeeeez!

Putin couldn't stand to see a major part of the former USSR become part of the EU, hence he did all he could to aid instability and in-fighting, arming and assisting rebels to suit his own ends.
To say the EU have the same level of culpability is frankly abhorrent.
Let us know when you return to Earth, Gromit, as you're clearly on another planet.
Gromit
The rush to blame a Russian crew is political.


Why did you rush to blame the Ukrainian army?
My initial thoughts were it was the pro-Russian separatists, but without enough evidence I didn't point the finger. Everything you have typed since has me thinking you have blinkered views on thise whole situation.
To say the EU have the same level of culpability is frankly abhorrent.

Hear hear, ChillDoubt
Question Author
Hear hear from me too.
I guess by "rebellion" Gromit means Maidan revolution, but that is a gross insult to the people of Ukraine, suggesting they cannot think for themselves.
Chill,
The EU have already captured vast swathes of Russia's former Empire. Ukraine was more prized because it grows a large amount of food eaten by Russians, the so called bread basket. It was the pro EU side who destablised a democratically elected President and over threw him.



Former Soviet countries have already joined the EU:
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuanian.

In addition, the following former Warsaw pact countries have joined:
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain

East Germany became EU through Unification.

Not yet members but candidates to join are:
Montenegro
Serbia
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Potential candidates:
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Kosovo
The EU have already captured vast swathes of Russia's former Empire
----------------------
Pathetic. You make it sound as though they did so via tanks and arming of factions loyal etc.
Those you've mentioned made applications to join the EU, no country was 'captured'.

You've reached rock bottom and have now started to dig.....
Roy

I have already explained my mistake in initially suspecting the Ukrainians, that was based on an Rueters report putting a Ukrainian Government BUK in the same area a couple of weeks before. When I later heard the Rebels exchanges a few hours later on YouTube, I changed my mind based on the new evidence. Some had heard the YouTube earlier in Russian. I had to wait for a translation to be posted.

------

// Putin couldn't stand to see a major part of the former USSR become part of the EU, hence he did all he could to aid instability and in-fighting //

When Yanukovych was elected President, Putin would have undoubtedly been pleased. Yanukovych was previously Chair of the CIS which is the former Soviet equivalent of the EU (though much smaller). Also he was from the Ukraine East which is predominantly of Russian decent. Putin may have leaned on Yanukovych to undo the EU deal (I expect this is what you referred to as 'interferred'), but he was preaching to the converted in Yanukovych.

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