Latest Polls....

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27330849
Mikey, I'll do it this week, Poll of polls has labour 3 points clear, but yougov has them only 1 point clear, I do not see an overall majority there. I think ED had better get his finger out if Mrs ED is going pick some new curtains for no 10! At this stage, in 1992 Kinnochio was 7 points clear and we know what happenned there don't we.....

[youngmafbog]

Yes we do - he ended up with his (and his Mrs') nose stuck firmly in the EU trough.

So it rather looks like Nick or Nigel will be the king makers then.

[mikey4444]

TTT...you must be psychic ! I was doing some internetting an hour ago for exactly the same purpose ! Great minds think alike it would seem, even you and me !

I am waiting for the Electoral Calculus site to update ::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

YouGov alters quite a lot, each time they post a new Poll. Labour is currently 4 points ahead but was 6 points ahead on Tuesday. But no sign yet of dave being ahead at all. UKPollingReport has them Labour 4 points ahead as well ::

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

In 1992, UKIP had yet to be invented. At present they are Polling a pretty consistent 12-13%, so 1992 and 2015 can't really be compared with any accuracy. As it stands at the moment, dave is unlikely to get a clear overall majority, thus letting Labour in. dave really needs to up his game in the next 8-9 months, and I'm afraid he shows little movement so far.

I will post Electoralcalculus as soon its ready.

[Gromit]

I agree,

Labour should be showing a bigger lead at this stage. I image Labour will be in the same situation the Tories were after the last election, needing a partner or an election re-run.

[Sqad]

Morning mikey.........this thread isn't about Dave "upping his game" as we all agree that he should BUT it is all about that "ever dwindling" Labour lead.

[ToraToraTora]

noooo, not another Lib/Lab pact! gawd elp us!
Mikey you gov in my link has labour 1 point clear.

[ToraToraTora]

not sure how they work that out mikey, it has Labour with 100 more seats than the Tories with a 3 point lead, seems a little dodgy to me.

[mikey4444]

TTT...I have tried your link above again and it gives Labour at 36 and the Tories at 33....ie a 3 point lead. Are we talking about the BBC Poll of Polls ?
(http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27330849) It could be that the BBC have added some more data to the link since you posted earlier. The average Labour lead over the Tories over the month of July according to this link is 3 points.

Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a 48 seat majority, at the end of June, up from 28 seats at the end of May. Site still not updated though.

You haven't posted any YouGov Polls today, but Electoral Calculus gives Labour at 349 seats and the Tories at 249 seats. This Pollster takes every seat in the country into consideration, and the Tory majority in the seats that Labour need to win obviously differ from place to place.

In common with all Pollsters, they expect UKIP to get no seats but have taken into account that most of the few votes that UKIP will get, will come mostly from the Tories. Also its apparent that the huge loss of LibDems seats that is expected next May, down by 2 thirds, will result in more new seats for Labour, rather than the Tories.

Sqad...While the Labour position could and should be stronger, as long as the Tories fail to get ahead, Labour will, by default, win the May 2015 election. especially when you take into the account the rise in UKIP and drop in the LibDems. I am far from saying that Labour can rest on its laurels, but dave is defending a not very strong position. He has to watch over his shoulder not only Labour, but UKIP as well, which no party has ever had to before within living memory.

[Slapshot]

You're kidding Mr Ed with his nose in the lead..... the country would be better with the horse!!

[mikey4444]

Slapshot...thanks for your incisive, thoughtful, and well-researched reply. It has added an enormous amount to our debate today.

[Svejk]

its right though.

[ToraToraTora]

line 3, 27/7/2014, yougov, con 35, Lab 36. Not sure where you are looking mikey. poll of pols has 3 points clear. I still cannot see how a 3point lead gives 100 extra seats.

[mikey4444]

Interesting inside page from Electoralcalculus ::::::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

The vast majority expect to be Labour gains.

[agchristie]

I cant see the polls changing much as the election draws near.Labour need to act fast and start to develop and explain their policies on some issues such as the NHS and schools.

[mikey4444]

We are at cross-purposes TTT. YouGov did indeed give a Labour lead of 1 on the 27th, but also gave a Labour lead of 4 today, 2 yesterday, 1 in Wednesday and 6 on Tuesday. UK Polling Report has a current average Labour of 4 for the month of July.

All a little bit out of kilter with each other but within the normal margins of error. Also no Pollster can Poll in every constituency at the same time.

Look at the ElectoralCalculus link that I have just posted ::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

Labour 349 and the Tories 249. Look at the vulnerable seats...very few are vulnerable Labour seats...most are vulnerable Tory ones, together LibDems.

I wish ElCal would get a move on. I have emailed them again, as they didn't update last month until I emailed them. Probably all over the Pub as its POEAIF I suppose !

[Orderlimit]

Talking of stats :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28605306

"Matt Hancock, the Conservative MP and business minister who complained to the statistics watchdog, said the error was "deeply embarrassing" for Mr Miliband".

"If he can't get his facts right on the economy, then there is no way he would be able to run the country."

[ToraToraTora]

I still don't see how 3 points = 100 seats, gawd knows how they worked that out.

[mikey4444]

They have pointy heads TTT and I think it helps. I have had a reply from EC about their tardiness in updating their site and it will be "over the weekend" apparently. Augustitus if you ask me !

[ToraToraTora]

this tardiness mikey makes me doubt their figures too!