So Ukip Is A Threat To Labour

[youngmafbog]

Yep Mickey; in black and white from your favourite lefty rag, not the Daily Mail:

This is just as many of us said but were shouted down, So what are your thoughts now then all of you?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-ed-miliband-warned-of-ukip-threat-to-labour-9645347.html

[mikey4444]

ymb...read my posts on the ElectoralCalculus Polls this morning. I have said all along that its unlikely that UKIP will win many, if any seats. The battle in May 2015 will between Labour and the Tories, as it always has been, and always will be.

If there were an election on Thursday, Labour would win and the Tories would lose but UKIP wouldn't be of any importance whatsoever.

[VHG]

>>>>will between Labour and the Tories, as it always has been, and always will be.

We had four liberal governments in the past, and the Labour party did not even exist until 1900, so it has NOT always been between Labour and Tory.

I am not saying UKIP will win any seats in the next election, but political parties do come and go.

I think the rise in UKIP support is mainly down to people's disaffection with the current political parties, and if Farage left the UKIP party it would collapse over night.

[EDDIE51]

Yes , they are a threat to Labour in those constancies that have a high proportion of immigrants.
The big danger though is of a Conservative/ UKIP coalition , with the Lib Dems virtually annihilated that could happen.

[Gromit]

Ymb, did you actually read the article. If you did, you are being slighly economical.

It says UKIP are a threat to Labour MPs WITH A SMALL MAJORITY. That isn't really that surprising. Any MP from any party is going to be vunerable to any factors in voting patterns if they only have a few votes separating them from the second place candidate.

She is not saying that UKIP are going to take a lot of Labour seats, or that they will take a lot of Labour votes. She is just pointing out that in a handful of seats which Labour won by a whisker (like her own) that they need to be more aware of the threat.

[Gromit]

// from your favourite lefty rag //

The Independent did not support Labour at the last election...

// "From electoral reform flows much else that we believe this country needs: green jobs, a fairer tax system, an urgent defence review and sustained investment in health and education.
"These values are perhaps best espoused by the Liberal Democrats." //

[Gromit]

UKIP's power to disrupt the status quo will be most felt in marginal constituencies. In those places, only a small swing, or even just a handful of votes can decide if it goes blue or red.

Of the list of 80 most marginal constituencies, Labour have 32, and the Conservatives have 32. I expect UKIP will decide the next Government by their performance in those 64 areas.

[ChillDoubt]

If there were an election on Thursday, Labour would win and the Tories would lose but UKIP wouldn't be of any importance whatsoever.
-------------
Delusional. The recent Euro elections showed that UKIP will have a part to play (taking votes from both main parties)and that in real terms Labour are/were no further on than at the last election.

[Gromit]

Chill

True Labour haven't really progressed, but both Coalition parties are likely to do less well. Thatcher* and Blair lost votes between elections but stayed in power because they had large majorities. They could afford to lose a few seats, Cameron can't.

In all liklihood, the LibDems will be decimated. Labour should reap the benefit of that.
In all likihood, UKIP will take votes from them all. The party which UKIP takes the least votes from in marginal seats will win the election.

* After 1982 win.

[youngmafbog]

Where did I say UKIP would win seats? You dont need to win the seat to stop someone else winning it.

Are you claiming the Independant is not on the left of the political spectrum then Gromit. Not compared to your favoutite Morning Starr perhaps :-)

[SeaJayPea]

I'd suggest that the Independent is not actually on the left of the political spectrum, just to the left of you, ymb.

And it most certainly is not a 'rag'.

[ChillDoubt]

Chill

True Labour haven't really progressed,
---------------
That's my point, I already know that. You need to tell Red Mikey what is staring the Labour Party in the face because he flatly refuses to believe it and has visions of Red Ed sweeping to power on a crimson wave.
I think it'll be more akin to a splash in a car park puddle.

[mikey4444]

chili...as regards your post at 15:55 today...all the evidence, no matter which Polling company you look at, are predicting that Labour will win the 2015 election, either on their own or in a coalition, as it stands at the moment.

A lot may happen in the next 8-9 months, but if there was an election this coming Thursday, the Tories would not win. There is no good news in any of these recent Polls for dave at all. So, when it comes to flatly refusing to believe, can I respectfully suggest that you need to stop shooting the messenger, if the message isn't to your liking.

If you think the opposite is true and the Tories are ahead in the Polls, than please furnish some credible evidence.

[mikey4444]

ymb...are you getting the Morning Star mixed up with Freddie Starr by any chance ?

The Independent is about as neutral a newspaper as it is possible to be, and to say suggest otherwise is just daft. Just because a newspaper isn't blatantly Tory, like the DM, doesn't make it left wing, in any shape or form.