Mikey Slacking!

[ToraToraTora]

Poll of polls has Labour only 2pts Clear....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27330849
Methinks more will be needed!

[youngmafbog]

I'm sure Mickey will be along to tell us that poll is wrong and that the real poll has labour 20 points in front.

and of course the Ghastly UKIP wont affect labour at all, even if the experts say it will !

[youngmafbog]

Pretty consistent on the poor old lib dems and UKIP though. Looks like Cleggy is definitely running the 4th party.

Will he get to stand at debate on the tv or will it have to be Farage, or maybe they will both be cut out by an agreement of Dave and Ed?

[New Judge]

Or, with any luck, they'll blow out the ghastly TV debates entirely and let people make up their minds by means other than a 30 minute reality show.

[scooping]

Miliband in trouble. Cameron will continue to improve his ratings. Lib Dems irrelevant. UKIP the only wild card.

[ToraToraTora]

yes I hate these US style bun fights, serve no useful purpose.

[youngmafbog]

Totally agree NJ and TTT. However, the majority of the public does not have a good IQ and go for such shows, eg big brother, fat programs, jungle programs .... So it is unlikely it will stop.

Remember, whoever suggested it (Dave or Ed) would be lambasted by the press as having something to hide.

[mikey4444]

TTT...If I were to post YouGovs Polls, every time they put Labour ahead, you would all start to complain soon enough, as it would be a daily activity. Already I have had some flack for posting the Polls too often...it seems I can't win whatever I do !

In the last 7 days, YouGov have Labour ahead by as much as 5 and as little as 2. What they are unable to show though, is dave even getting level with Labour, let alone being ahead. Someone said on here very recently that the Polls will change as we get closer to May 2015, and indeed that may very well be true. But the gap between Labour and the Tories could just as easily grow, as it could shrink. As it is now, dave shows no indication of getting more popular. He is in power, with all the advantage that being the incumbent brings and he should be able to defend his Government and his record better than this, but somehow he can't.

ymb is correct when he says that the LibDems and UKIP are consistent, so it is increasingly clear that the battle next May will be on the old grounds that we know and love...ie between Labour and the Tories.

I will post again on this subject when the Electoral Calculus website is updated, at the end of August. Unless of course something dramatic happens.

[grumpy01]

If Scotland were to vote yes next month would that have any bearing on these polls? Or would Scottish MP's still sit in Westminster until a date in the future when the split becomes ratified?

[youngmafbog]

Afternoon Micky

Excellent post; You have not disappointed me! :-)

[ToraToraTora]

yes I know mikey but I've got used to it now, I tend only to talk about the BBC poll of polls though as an average.

[mikey4444]

ymb...I am not sure if you have paid me a compliment or not, but as I am in a good mood today, I am going to presume you have, and therefore say thank you ! I'm not as bad as you think you know !

grumpy...it has been said on here that UKIP is the wild card when it comes to next May's Election, but the vote on Scotland's independence is the real issue for me. There is precious little evidence that there will be a YES vote, but even if there is, its highly unlikely that Scotland would cede away from the rest of very quickly. We are living in interesting times grumpy !

TTT...rather predictable post from me perhaps but as the situation hasn't changed, then it is to be expected. BBC Polls gives Labour a 3 point lead.

[New Judge]

It should be a condition of the Scottish referendum that if they vote for independence they take no further part in electing MPs to Westminster with immediate effect.

In fact, even if they vote "No" I think that would be a good idea. Then they can have their Parliament (or whatever they call it) and England can have its own.

[Quizmonster]

What arrant nonsense! Even if there is a 'Yes' vote, which seems unlikely, it will take at least two years for any sort of actual independence tp come into effect. Are you seriously suggesting that everyone in Scotland - ie inhabitants of the UK until that point - should have suffrage removed whilst still being governed by the UK government, whoever that may be post May next?

[New Judge]

Yes.

[Hypognosis]

That is the stated aim of the Yes campaign, is it not, NJ? Being freed from the yoke of Westminster rule?

Immediate termination of their MP's salaries, to match cessation of duties, should save us a few hundred thou' a year, too, ;-)

[Quizmonster]

NJ, is your 'Yes' in agreement with my claim that your idea is arrant nonsense? If so, fine. If not, on what basis do you think it acceptable to disenfranchise several million people whilst they are part of the population of the UK?

[mikey4444]

There is no basis Quizmonster, and it won't happen, trust me.

After the NO campaign has failed next month, things will carry on much as before. Scotland already has considerable independence powers, gained after the Labour landslide victory of 1997, and it will continue use its Scottish Parliament to govern most of what Westminster did before 1997.

Its all a storm in a tea cup.

[Quizmonster]

I imagine, Mikey, that you intended to refer to the 'Yes' rather than the 'No' campaign in your response above. I know, of course, that no such silliness as NJ proposed earlier here is actually going to occur, I just wondered on what conceivable grounds he might believe that such an action could possibly be justified.

[mikey4444]

Quizmonster...As I live in Swansea I do not have a vote, but even if I did, I would vote NO, and try to persuade others to do the same. This independence issue is just nonsense. We should all be sticking together, not splitting up into small pieces. We are stronger together.

[New Judge]

My answer was in response to your question, QM (Are you seriously suggesting.....etc.).

If the Scots want independence my view is that they should have it immediately. No "transition arrangements" (in particular no transitional funding), no faffing about. The Westminster and Edinburgh mandarins can get their fingers out and have it ready for the start of the next financial year, thus no justification for the Scots to take part in the next General Election. Mr Salmond and his mates have had long enough to prepare themselves for the day. I'm sure they have plans in place to launch the new currency they will require, to cope with life outside the EU, to cope with raising 100% of revenue needed to run their new State and to deal with the myriad other problems they will face. If not, bad luck.

I find it rather tiresome that so much consideration should be given to the whims of such a small proportion of the UK's population. If they vote to go, the sooner the better.

Of course none of this will happen. I'm quite with Mikey in that I believe a "No" vote is an overwhelming probability for no other reason that most Scots know on which side their bread is buttered. Even if they vote "Yes" it will take far longer than the two years you mention to achieve full separation. Endless debate will go on for years to argue the toss over this and that and in the meantime the Scottish Electorate will still send members to the Parliament many of them seem to despise and cannot wait to be rid of.