Another Bye-Election

[Gromit]

Heywood and Middleton, a seat once held by Jim Callaghan.

6,000 Labour Majority in 2010.
UKIP came 5th, behind he BNP in 4th.

On the face of it, not UKIP territory, but anything can happen?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election,_2014

[Zacs-Master]

Yes UkIP came 5th out of 6 with 2.5% of the vote.

[jeffa]

I'm afraid I predict a UKIP victory... :-(

[Zacs-Master]

I'm afraid you live in cloud cuckoo land.

[jourdain2]

I don't predict a UKIP victory, but I think they may well have an effect on the result - possibly 2nd or 3rd?

[mikey4444]

Who cares or even remembers who came third ! This has all the appearance of being a safe Labour seat, until the Bookies indicate otherwise.

[Gromit]

If the LibDem vote collapses like it has in many recent bye-election, then UKIP could snatch 2nd from the Conservatives. That would be very damaging to Cameron. In Easleigh UKIP put on 9,500 votes to get 2nd. A repeat of that, and they push the Tories into 3rd.

In May's Local Elections, UKIP did not win a single seat, but their good showing led to 7 Labour gains.

[lindapalmara]

I wouldn't dismiss UKIP in this area. Remember Gillian Duffy.

[janbee]

Never dismiss or write off any party. ANTHING can happen and quite a few surprises can pop up. The LIMP DUMs are now the party scraping the bottom of the political barrel. They will be lucky to come last these days !

[Obiter]

It's in Manchester. Labour's a shoo-in.

[jno]

you never know what will happen in a bye-election; but any major upsets are usually righted in the next general election., leaving the status quo bruised but alive.

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29100304

/// He voted against the same-sex marriage bill last year and spoke out against the plans in Parliament, saying: "I think MPs who voted for this change will rue the day they did so." ///

[lindapalmara]

Orbiter. Don't paint All Manchester Red. My home town, Bury had a Labour MP who ended up in link and now it is Tory!! There's a UKIP MEP in Heywood.

[lindapalmara]

Typo!!! "Labour MP who ended up in Clink"

[grumpy01]

Gromit,this was not "Sunny Jim" though,his constitiencies were Cardiff South and Cardiff South East.This Jim Callaghan was a local politician who represented the seat.

[Peter Pedant]

have they issued the writ ?

election in less than 40 d ?

Just upstream from me: not sure if it is a labour shoo-in

[Peter Pedant]

sorry sitting labour MP

Dobbing dead rather than resigning - yeah shoo-in.


Lee Rigby's constituency. and what do we remember most about the aftermath of this awful death ? No will. So the estranged wife got everything - the girl friend he was living with got nothing and ( presumably the child was provided for under statutory regs ) - weird I know but I just thought I would put that in....

[Gromit]

Grumpy,
Apologies, I now remember there were two Callaghan's, thanks for your correction.

My Prediction:

1. Labour
2. UKIP
3. Conservative
4. Other
5. LibDems

[Peter Pedant]

golly if Gromit has called it
why bother to go to the expense of an actual election ?

[youngmafbog]

I reckon you pretty much have it there Gromit.

It is the percentages that will be interesting of course.

[Gromit]

PP, I put a bet on in December with some Christmas gift money, that UKIP would win the Euro Elections, and I won a ton of money :-)