Rochester And Strood By Election Prediction

[Gromit]

I don't think it will be close

1. UKIP 14,900
2. Conservative 9,800
3. Labour 5,800
4. Greens 1,600
5. LibDems 850
6. Others 1050

Do you agree? Disagree?

[BlackadderV]

Apart from the fact that you have others with more votes than the Libs, yes.

[BlackadderV]

I first came across Rochester when I studied history. The then bishop of Rochester, John Fisher, along with Sir Thomas More, refused to take the oath of supremacy acknowledging the king as head of the Church of England. The pope, in an act of defiance, created Fisher a cardinal. When informed of this news Henry VIII replied, "Then I'll send his head to Rome for the cap."

[janbee]

I think UKIP will win and I think the LIMPs will lose their deposit... AGAIN!!

[mushroom25]

in a situation where the winning candidate will have a tenure of less than a year, the electorate can safely deliver a bloody nose without being landed long-term with a complete wonk for an mp.

normal service will be restored in 2015.

[thedogwalker]

You are so right mushroom25

[agchristie]

Mush,

Agree too with your comments though a lot of constituents will fear what you say about 'normal service will be restored' in 2015.

I think whoever wins the General Election, people will want to see changes on the bigger issues.

[mikey4444]

I am going to stick my neck out here and say that the Tories will hang on, with a much smaller majority, but I wouldn't be surprised in UKIP takes the day.

[BlackadderV]

If the Tories DO hang on it will be a massive blow to Nige and a massive boost to Dave. Everything will then be back into the melting pot.

[ChillDoubt]

Do you seriously believe UKIP will lose a 15 point lead? Really?
I would never count my chickens but even the staunchest Labourite and Tory Boy know this is a done deal.
The only other matters to be determined are whether Labour retain their deposit and how much public humiliation will the Lib Dems suffer.

[BlackadderV]

//...how much public humiliation will the Lib Dems suffer.//

Can't be too much in my book!

[ludwig]

Quite honestly I have no idea. I've given up predicting and just become an interested observer.

[-Talbot-]

I usually ask the bookie.


Rochester & Strood By Election – Winner Betting

UKIP 1/66
Conservatives 20/1

[BlackadderV]

What were the odds on the Libs?

[-Talbot-]

1000/1

[mikey4444]

Chili...UKIP may very well win this by-election but as its the sitting MP who has turned traitor, its not so surprising is it ? If this election was brought about by the death of the sitting MP, how would UKIP fair then ?

The Tories won in 2010 with a majority of very nearly 10,000. UKIP didn't even put a candidate up ! So surely the fact that the sitting MP is standing must account for the large possibility of UKIP winning, not UKIP itself.

This by-election will not answer the question of whether "UKIP is going to break the mould of British politics" which has often been said these last few months. Today's Poll is an entirely artificial situation, brought about by devilment. Next May will decide that question once and for all, and my own personal view is that UKIP will be just another also-ran.

By the way, if Farage really thinks he and his Party are the saviours of 1950's Great Britain, why is HE not standing somewhere ?

[BlackadderV]

Sounds like a good bet, I would have said 1,000,000,000,000,000/1.

[-Talbot-]

Go into a shop and you may get that, Blackadder but online bookies have a 1000/1 cut off point.

[BlackadderV]

//By the way, if Farage really thinks he and his Party are the saviours of 1950's Great Britain, why is HE not standing somewhere ?//

He will be, Mikey, he will, Just the small problem of there being no more vacant seats at the moment.

[ChillDoubt]

This by-election will not answer the question of whether "UKIP is going to break the mould of British politics" which has often been said these last few months.
----------------------------------------
They already did that back in the Euro elections.
Your main concern ought to be the dreadful standing and publi perception of your leader. Hardly good form for someone in Opposition, is it?
In Opposition means you should be winning these things or running the winners close, yet it's anything but.

[mikey4444]

Chili..........but Labour is still ahead in the Polls ! I wonder how far behind the Tories will be tomorrow morning, after they have lost a safe seat in Rochester ?

If UKIP DO win today, then Tories will have 2 less of a majority in Westminster. This is what is making it difficult for dave to sleep at night.