Ukip Nick Another One......

[Slapshot]

UKIP, that party that was never going to have any seats in Parliament now has two.... who's worrying more.... Dave or Millibland??

As for Cleggy.... less than 1% of the vote.... he should be embarrased to call himself a serious politician... they better hope there's no more
The result..

Mark Reckless (UKIP) 16,867 (42.10%)
Kelly Tolhurst (C) 13,947 (34.81%, -14.39%)
Naushabah Khan (Lab) 6,713 (16.76%, -11.70%)
Clive Gregory (Green) 1,692 (4.22%, +2.69%)
Geoff Juby (LD) 349 (0.87%, -15.39%)
Hairy Knorm Davidson (Loony) 151 (0.38%)
Stephen Goldsbrough (Ind) 69 (0.17%)
Nick Long (PBP) 69 (0.17%)
Jayda Fransen (Britain 1st) 56 (0.14%)
Mike Barker (Ind) 54 (0.13%)
Charlotte Rose (Ind) 43 (0.11%)
Dave Osborn (Pat Soc) 33 (0.08%)
Christopher Challis (Ind) 22 (0.05%)

[Retrochic]

Jim your theory about by elections was bantered about Question Time last night I think as none of us has a crystal ball we will just have to 'wait and see'. I now have to quit this debate as I have to go to work (damn inconvenient) but will catch up when I get there lol!

[Peter Pedant]

// Doesn't look as though muesli, lentils and knitted yoghurt are the staple diet of the good burghers of Rochester.//

but they do drive white vans ( at least you can see who is coming for you at night )

Have they interviewed white flag man ?
and did he look ..... cross ?

[Peter Pedant]

JIm, nice to see you young man

one of your colleagues in the wide world predicted Obama's victory ( the only one to get it right ) by using medians instead of means ....

Do you know of any refs on how he did it ? thx PP

[ichkeria]

//So to expect a Labour politician of any credibility to hop from their party over the Tories straight to UKIP is a fantasy. //
I'll just make a note of that.

Who did you have in mind? Dennis Skinner perhaps? Alan Johnson? Jeremy Corbyn? Diane Abbott? Frank Field?
One can name the usual suspects in the Tory party (they often have "Bone" in their name :-) ) but with Labour it looks a little trickier.

[jim360]

Unfortunately I'm not aware of it or the technique, Peter Pedant. Don't really follow political science beyond an amateur interest.

[Svejk]

I can see what you did there now 'of any credibility'. Massive 'get out' clause.

[youngmafbog]

Amazing the lefty excuses for a dismal Labour result.

[mikey4444]

This has gone unremarked up until now. We all had a lively little debate about the truly awful fascist "Britain First" party on here recently. Nice to see that the good people of Rochester weren't altogether fooled last night after all::

Jayda Fransen (Britain First) 56 (0.14%)

[mikey4444]

Bouncer33...be careful with those logical and rational statements....it only confuses the right-wingers on here !

[ichkeria]

"Jayda Fransen (Britain First) 56 (0.14%) "

In fairness I did mention it earlier - 100 votes nearly behind Hairy Knorm (the silent Ks of Britain have spoken :-)

"I can see what you did there now 'of any credibility'. Massive 'get out' clause. "

LOL - that's not bad for a yoghurt-banning ultra rightie :-)

[mikey4444]

Sorry ichkeria...hadn't realised ! If you take away all the votes that Aunties, Uncles, etc, etc must have vast for her, it doesn't leave too many left who were taken in by her attempt at playing the race card. Well done to Rochester and Strood !

[ichkeria]

I believe Fransen was encouraging people to vote for Reckless in the end, which may her low vote and also ...

[ichkeria]

"which may explain" - no need for me to eat my own words when AB does it so efficiently :-)

[ChillDoubt]

mikey,
You need to face a few facts. Less than a decade ago Labour actually won Rochester. Only a couple of months ago UKIP came a very close second in the Manchester seat, where Labour just clung on by 600 votes when they won it previously by 6,000.
Labour are bleeding votes to UKIP and you'd better get used to it.

[mikey4444]

Chili....while it would be disingenuous to deny that UKIP are attracting at least some Labour votes, the bulk of their support is still coming from the Tories. Last night proved that.

You point about Labour winning in this seat before is pointless, as the boundaries were substantially changed and therefore parallels can't be drawn with yesterday.

The reality is that UKIP is a right wing party, formed over the years from people leaving the Tory Party, not Labour. The Party was formed by disaffected Tories and is still largely consisted of them. Read the history of UKIP here :::

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party#Founding_and_early_years

While I appreciate your need and intention in trying to gloss over the disaster that yesterday's vote has been for the Tories, it still remains just that...a complete and utter disaster for dave. He has now lost 2 consecutive by-elections, both in fairly safe Tory seats. He has 2 fewer MPs today in Westminster than he had a few weeks ago, but Labour still has the same number.

I keep being told how unpopular Ed is and how the Labour can't possibly win next May. But if dave and his party are so wonderful, why have they lost 19 out of the 20 by-elections since the last General Election ?

dave is starting to look like a startled rabbit, caught in the headlights. He doesn't know whether to turn and run, step to the side, or just lie down and wait for define inspiration. He is the Prime Minister and he really should be doing better than this. Even MMMMMMajor looks more confident than this !

[Svejk]

Nye would be a Kipper.

[ChillDoubt]

While I appreciate your need and intention in trying to gloss over the disaster that yesterday's vote has been for the Tories,
-----------------
???????????

But you're the party in Opposition mikey and your performance is in real terms dire.
As I said yesterday, if Ed gets in on the back of UKIPs success it'll be the hollowest and meaningless victory in the history of British politics this far.

[ChillDoubt]

Thus far. *** predictive crap!

[EDDIE51]

Retrochick
I and very many others consider the actual person we are voting for far more important than the party they represent. Reckless has made his views known for a long time , he holds the same views now as he did when he was a conservative MP. If In was one of the voters in yesterdays election and I considered Reckless to be a good MP who had represented my constituency well I would very possibly have voted for him even if he had defected to the Monster Raving Loony party.
As I have already said I will only take UKIP seriously when they start to win seats from standing MPs where the UKIP candidate is an 'Unknown'